Previous literature shows that the price-discovery ability of options market varies substantially over time. Using data of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 exchange-traded fund options, this paper shows that options prices contribute relatively less to price discovery during low-sentiment periods, but the price-discovery ability of options market remains unchanged during high-sentiment periods. These results suggest that change in aggregate investor sentiment is an important source of the time variation in options’ price discovery ability. Moreover, the options market experiences greater bid-ask spreads when investor sentiment is lower, supporting a “transaction costs mechanism.” This paper fulfills related literature on the time variation in options’ price-discovery ability.

Cryptocurrencies have gained popularity over the past five to six years. Most recently, events like the FTX bankruptcy fueled the interest in regulation. Moreover, it is possible that the FTX event disrupting the cryptocurrency market was a factor in Silicon Valley Bank's failure. While several countries consider regulation, from soft regulation, like Japan, to more rigid standards, like the total ban in China, we study the effect of other news or events on cryptocurrency prices. This paper looks at historical closing prices for Bitcoin, the largest of the cryptocurrencies, and how prices react to various events. Then we focus on modeling the time series considering an 'event,' China's ban on cryptocurrency exchanges, using intervention analysis. We find that intervention analysis provides a reliable approach to quantifying the impact regulation may have on cryptocurrency pricing.

The precise prediction of carbon emissions trading prices is the foundation for the stable and sustainable development of the carbon financial market. In recent years, influenced by a combination of factors such as the pandemic, trading regulations, and policies, carbon prices have exhibited strong random volatility and clear non-stationary characteristics. Traditional single-perspective prediction methods based on conventional statistical models are increasingly inadequate due to the homogenization of features and are struggling to adapt to China's regional carbon emissions trading market. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-perspective fusion-based prediction method tailored to the Chinese market. It leverages carbon emissions trading information from key cities as relevant features to predict the price changes in individual cities. Inspired by the development of artificial intelligence, this paper implements various time series models based on deep neural networks. The effectiveness of the multi-perspective approach is validated through multiple metrics. It provides scientific decision-making tools for domestic carbon emissions trading investors, making a significant contribution to strengthening carbon market risk management and promoting the establishment and rational development of a unified carbon market in China.

In this paper, we develop a model in which a monopolistic firm manufactures and sells a digital product, by incorporating digital rights management (DRM), quality degradation of pirated products, and government copyright enforcement into the consumer’s utility function. We determine the monopolist’s optimal pricing strategies and the appropriate DRM protection level through mathematical deduction. Our results show that when the government copyright enforcement is moderate and the quality of pirated products is relatively high, implementing a DRM system is optimal for the monopolist. However, in most other cases, DRM-free is better for the monopolist. This result may explain why DRM is not very popular in some industries. Our results suggest that choosing the right price, focusing on content innovation, and weakening DRM protection may be a better strategy for firms now. The results also indicate that DRM-free may be more prominent in the digital music industry than in the software and video games industries.

This paper investigates the degree of inflation persistence across regions in Portugal by analyzing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rates for NUTS II regions. The study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to determine whether the CPI data for Portugal is stationary or non-stationary. The results of the ADF test reveal that the IPC data for Portugal is non-stationary, indicating that inflation exhibits persistence in the long run. The study further assesses the persistence of inflation by estimating an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for each region. The Ljung-Box test is used to test for autocorrelation in the time series data, and the Hurst exponent is calculated to evaluate the presence of long-term memory in the time series data. The study finds that there is significant autocorrelation in the time series data for all regions, supporting the presence of persistence in inflation at the regional level in Portugal. The Hurst exponent also shows that the time series data for each region exhibits a high degree of persistence in inflation. Finally, the study applies the ARIMA model to each CPI division's data and uses the Ljung-Box test to test for autocorrelation in the time series data. The results show that some CPI divisions exhibited higher levels of persistence compared to others. For example, the "Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels" division exhibited high persistence, while the "Communication" division exhibited low persistence. This study contributes to the existing literature by exploring regional inflation persistence in Portugal and its implications for policymaking. The results provide insights into the inflation persistence patterns across regional levels in Portugal, by emphasizing the need to consider regional differences in inflation dynamics when formulating effective policy interventions. Understanding the persistence of inflation is crucial for policymakers to ensure price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Liquidity can be a real phenomenon for execution of the financial holding. Its risk falls in debate to impose a conditional cost on the counterparty. The time-varying liquidity is often linked to the expected fundamental value of an investment. In this work, the microblogging-based informed transaction is examined as a determinant of the liquidity-facilitating cost. Most importantly, this study investigates the economic blockade era and post-pandemic uncertainty. The sentiment indicators were found to be determinants of liquidity. These findings were consistent in the post-pandemic period. However, the investor pessimistic sentiment was a priced risk factor in liquidity during the economic blockade period. Based on the Bayesian theorem, a relativeness was reported between sentiment indicators and the liquidity-facilitating cost. The same findings were depicted in environments of the pandemic era. Nevertheless, the posterior probability indicated an occurrence of the liquidity-associated cost in response to the pessimistic sentiments during the economic blockade period. This quantification may have potential implications in terms of exploring liquidity from the microblogging perceptive.

By an endogenous growth model with a two-period overlapping generations structure, I examine the existence of a budget deficit in an economy that endogenously grows by investments of firms. The consumers leave bequests to their descendants and hold money as a part of their savings. I use a Barro-type utility function, where people include the utility of their children in their own utility. The main results are as follows. 1) A budget deficit is necessary for full employment under constant prices. 2) Inflation is induced if the actual budget deficit is greater than the value at which full employment is achieved under constant prices. 3) If the actual budget deficit is smaller than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, a recession occurs. Therefore, a balanced budget cannot achieve full employment under constant prices. I do not assume that the budget deficit must later be made up by a budget surplus. I use a Barro-type utility function to prove the necessity (or inevitability) of a budget deficit instead of the neutrality of government debt. In the appendix of this paper, I show that if money, as well as goods, are produced by capital and labor, a budget deficit is not necessary for full employment under constant prices.

In this study, the time-varying pattern of returns with the trading cost is assessed in light of sanctions on the Russia’s economy. The analysis is performed on the Moscow Exchange Index (MOEX) using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, Bayes’ Theorem technique, and vector error correction model (VECM). Firstly, the transparency of asset’s value in the same trading period was noted to execute the trade with a limited price impact. Thus, the liquidity seems not priced in returns. In addition, the posterior probability of the transparent asset’s value stabilized the market at a limited transaction cost. In this case, there is less likelihood of liquidity acting as a risk element in returns during the same trading session. These results correspond to the era without sanctions, as well as economic restrictions period. Before the economic restrictions, the execution of investment occurred on its real or close value due to the market transparency in the following trading period. This implies, that the past trading cost series is not priced in yields on investment. During the Russia-related sanctions, a higher price impact of transaction was noted due to the ambiguity in the future asset’s value. Therefore, the past liquidity series is a pricing element in the short run and long run. The analysis suggests a potential inference of trading cost to determine the yield on investment.

This work investigates the strength and the pattern of linkages among the three markets of qualitatively differentiated milk (i.e., conventional, organic without heymilk, and organic with heymilk) in Austria using the flexible TVP-VAR frequency connectedness approach and information on prices from 2018 to 2023. The main empirical findings are: (a) Taken together, the markets have maintained a moderate degree of connectedness to each other.  (b) Price linkages have been frequency-dependent; much of the adjustments to incoming information have been completed within 3 months. (c) Connectedness has been asymmetric; the highest quality (organic with heymilk) has been a net transmitter of price shocks to organic without heymilk. (d) The intensity of connectedness has been time-varying; however, the internal structure of the market network (i.e., the net transmitters and receivers of price shocks) has remained fairly stable.

Investment funds are increasingly focusing on ESG issues, seeking to contribute to improving environmental, social, and governance concerns. ESG-focused investing involves promoting good ESG performance and may result in a decrease in expected financial returns. This may lead to a conflict between solely profit-focused shareholders and ESG-focused investors, who may respond accordingly. As such, a firm's ESG commitment may trigger several events that can affect the stock price. A firm's ESG commitment may increase its stock price; however, the end of such commitment may also positively affect the stock price. Hedge funds may consider this in their activism which may reshape the way hedge funds target firms and influence their actions accordingly.

The objectives and tasks of the European Central Bank (ECB) are defined in Articles 2 and 3 of Protocol (No 4) on the Statute of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) and of the European Central Bank (ECB). While in Article 3,1° of this Protocol other tasks are mentioned, the prime objective of the ESCB and therefore of the ECB, is price stability. This concept was originally specified by the Executive Board of the ECB as an annual increase of less than 2% in the inflation rate over the medium term, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area. This paper examines to what extent the ECB has been effective in realizing price stability over the period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022. Price stability is important for economic agents. It allows them to plan their savings, spending and investment eventually resulting in sustained economic growth.   Notwithstanding the commitment of large human and other resources and the use of unconventional monetary policies, the ECB did not realize its prime objective during a large part of this period. We conclude that putting too much confidence in DSGE-modeling as one of the methodologies to determine monetary policy, may have played an important role in the ECB not achieving its main statutory objective.

Energy Performance Certificates are a key tool for achieving energy efficiency in the building sector. The existence of this type of legislation provides incentives for the energy renovation of buildings, increases energy-efficiency investments, and improves social welfare. At the same time, informational asymmetries are mitigated and energy consumption is reduced. However, the decarbonization of the building sector might influence regional energy poverty, especially because the rural energy poor are more vulnerable to energy price increases than their urban counterparts. Empirical research on rural-urban differences and the effects of Energy Performance Certificates is urgently needed, given the rising fuel prices and vulnerabilities of the energy market.

This paper provides an overview of the existing literature on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in various fields, including economics, finance, mining, manufacturing, and innovation. The paper identifies the drivers and effects of AI deployment in the context of innovation and highlights the challenges and opportunities that arise from the use of AI. The studies reviewed in this paper cover various topics related to forecasting, including the impact of AI on professional skills, hybrid forecasting techniques for predicting commodity prices, and novel deep reinforcement learning algorithms for crude oil price forecasting. The paper’s contribution lies in its systematic and comprehensive approach to reviewing the literature, which allows for a better understanding of the impact of AI on various fields and the identification of strategies to address the challenges that arise from its deployment.

Information leakage in the stock market has been widely proven. Information disclosure is sometimes uneven, and there is significant information asymmetry between ordinary investors and professional institutional investors. In this paper, Regression Discontinuity design (RDD) model is first employed to analyze the information leakage issues. Based on the daily closing stock prices of 15 capital service listed companies, we analyze the difference between the market reaction time and the disclosure time of two stamp tax policies. We found that the sample policies information may leaked to the market about two days earlier. This paper provides a new method analyzing information leakage.

I will show that if the propensity to consume from savings satisfies appropriate conditions, the debt-GDP ratio will not grow infinitely large and fiscal collapse will not occur. Using a basic macroeconomic model, with an overlapping generations model in mind, we show the following results: 1) The budget deficit including interest payments on the government bonds equals an increase in the savings from a period to the next period. 2) If the savings in the first period is positive, we need budget deficit to maintain full employment under constant prices or inflation in the later periods. 3) Under an appropriate assumption about the propensity to consume from savings, the debt-GDP ratio converges to a finite value. It does not diverge to infinity. The larger the propensity to consume from savings, the smaller the budget deficit required to achieve full employment. The larger the propensity to consume from savings, the less likely it is that the debt-GDP ratio will become large.

In the behavioral domain, this study discloses the pattern between microblogging-opinionated information and yields on the investment. This phenomenon is particularly related to the political instability in the Pakistan’s economy through the multivariate techniques. Pre-political crisis, the pessimistic sentiments were priced in yields on the investment. In environments of political instability, the intensity of decline in yields was more responsive against an incline in the negative opinions. Meanwhile, the intensity of increase in returns was less responsive against an incline in the positive opinions. The findings were further supported by the Bayesian approach. Before the political instability takes place in the Pakistan’s economy, the occurrence of yields was noted in response to the bearish market period. Post-political instability, there was a higher posterior probability for occurrence of returns against the bearish market period. Conversely, a higher posterior likelihood was noted for occurrence of investment’s yields in response to the bullish market period, but this relevance was not completely probable. From the impulse response analysis, the response of returns was reported against the standard deviation shocks in the microblogging sentiment indicators. The analysis may have potential implications in terms of disclosing the investors’ behavior from a political perspective.

In this study, we examined the efficiency of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), DASH, EOS, and MONERO from March 1, 2018, to March 1, 2023. We separated the sample into four subperiods for this purpose: a Tranquil period that includes the period from March 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019; a First Wave that includes the year 2020; a Second Wave that includes the year 2021; and a fourth subperiod that includes Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022-2023. The results are mixed, with some cryptocurrencies exhibiting equilibrium and others exhibiting autocorrelation and predictability in their pricing. When the sample is divided into subperiods, most digital currencies have long memories in their returns during the Tranquil period, BTC, LTC, and XRP exhibit efficiency during the First Wave of the pandemic, while BTC, ETH, and MONERO indicate efficiency during the Second Wave. Most assessed digital currencies showed equilibrium by 2022, with the exception of ETH and MONERO, which exhibit long memories, and LTC, which demonstrates anti-persistence. These results hold significance for investors in these alternative markets, as they suggest that some cryptocurrencies may be more predictable and therefore potentially profitable, whereas others may require greater caution and risk management strategies.

The Weibull distribution is extensively useful in the field of finance, insurance and natural disasters. Recently, It has been considered as one of the most frequently used statistical distributions in modelling and analyzing stock pricing movement and uncertain prediction in financial and investment data sets, such as insurance claims distribution. It is well known that the Bayes estimators of the two-parameter Weibull distribution do not have a compact form and the closed-form expression of the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained. In this paper and the Bayesian setting, it is assumed that the scale parameter of the Weibull model has a gamma prior under the assumption that its shape parameter is known. A simulation study is performed using random claims amount to compare the performance of the Bayesian approach with traditional maximum likelihood estimators in terms of Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for different sample sizes, with specific values of the scale parameter and shape parameters. The results have been compared with the estimated result via the maximum likelihood method. The result revealed that the Bayesian approach behaves similarly to the maximum likelihood method when the sample size is small. Nevertheless, in all cases for both methods, the RMSE and MAE decrease as the sample size increases. Finally, applications of the proposed model to the insurance claim data set have been presented.