Open Access Journal Article

Quantifying the connectedness and portfolio implications between Islamic and conventional bonds: Evidence from global and GCC regions

by Md. Ruhul Amin a orcid Md. Abdul Hakim b orcid Md. Mamunur Rashid c,* orcid  and  Shaikh Masrick Hasan c orcid
a
Department of Finance and Banking, Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh
b
Department of Business Administration, Notre Dame University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
c
Department of Finance, Jagannath University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 25 November 2022 / Accepted: 8 December 2022 / Published Online: 15 December 2022

Abstract

We explore the connectedness and portfolio implications between Islamic and conventional bonds in global and GCC regions. We also compare which bonds performed better during our sample period. Unlike previous studies, we focus on Islamic bond markets compared to their conventional counterparts and highlight the GCC bonds (Islamic and conventional) in respect of global bonds. We apply the DCC-GJR-GARCH (1,1) method, the Sharpe ratio, and the portfolio implications strategy over the period from September 1, 2013, to February 23, 2022. Our time-varying results suggest that the relationship among all variables varies over time, but most of them are positive, suggesting that there are fewer diversification opportunities between Islamic and conventional bonds. Hedging and diversification benefits are found only in the limited period among these variables, especially between GCC bonds and global bonds, and global Sukuk and GCC Sukuk. The findings of risk-adjusted returns reveal that Islamic bonds outperform their conventional counterparts. Moreover, mixed results are found in the case of hedging costs, and the majority of the fund, based on optimal weights, should be invested in Islamic bonds. Our study endows investors and regulators in the global and GCC markets with new insights on how to shield their investments and the financial system from financial crises through a hedging strategy with Islamic finance.


Copyright: © 2022 by Amin, Hakim, Rashid and Hasan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
Show Figures

Share and Cite

ACS Style
Amin, M. R.; Hakim, M. A.; Rashid, M. M.; Hasan, S. M. Quantifying the connectedness and portfolio implications between Islamic and conventional bonds: Evidence from global and GCC regions. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2022, 1, 9. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea01020001
AMA Style
Amin M R, Hakim M A, Rashid M M, Hasan S M. Quantifying the connectedness and portfolio implications between Islamic and conventional bonds: Evidence from global and GCC regions. Journal of Economic Analysis; 2022, 1(2):9. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea01020001
Chicago/Turabian Style
Amin, Md. R.; Hakim, Md. A.; Rashid, Md. M.; Hasan, Shaikh M. 2022. "Quantifying the connectedness and portfolio implications between Islamic and conventional bonds: Evidence from global and GCC regions" Journal of Economic Analysis 1, no.2:9. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea01020001
APA style
Amin, M. R., Hakim, M. A., Rashid, M. M., & Hasan, S. M. (2022). Quantifying the connectedness and portfolio implications between Islamic and conventional bonds: Evidence from global and GCC regions. Journal of Economic Analysis, 1(2), 9. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea01020001

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

References

  1. Ahmad, W., Rais, S., & Shaik, A. R. (2018). Modeling the directional spillovers from DJIM Index to conventional benchmarks: Different this time? The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 67, 14-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.04.012
  2. Ajmi, A. N., Hammoudeh, S., Nguyen, D. K., & Sarafrazi, S. (2014). How strong are the causal relationships between Islamic stock markets and conventional financial systems? Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 28, 213–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2013.11.004
  3. Akhtar, S., & Jahromi, M. (2017). Impact of the global financial crisis on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds. Accounting and Finance, 57, 623-655. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12136
  4. Akhtaruzzaman, M., Boubaker, S. & Sensoy, A. (2020). Financial contagion during COVID-19 crisis. Finance Research Letter, 38, 101604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101604
  5. Al Mamun, M., Uddin, G. S., Suleman, M. T., & Kang, S. H. (2020). Geopolitical risk, uncertainty and Bitcoin investment. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 540, 123107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.123107
  6. Alam, N., Hassan, M. K., & Haque, M. A. (2013). Are Islamic bonds different from conventional bonds? International evidence from capital market tests. Borsa Istanbul Review, 13(3), 22-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2013.10.006
  7. Al-Khazali, O., Lean, H. H. & Samet, A. (2014). Do Islamic stock indexes outperform conventional stock indexes? a stochastic dominance approach. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 28, 29–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.09.003
  8. Aloui, C., Hammoudeh, S., & Hamida, H. B. (2015). Co-movement between sharia stocks and Sukuk in the GCC markets: A time-frequency analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 34, 69–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.11.003
  9. Al-Yahyaee, K. H., Mensi, W., Rehman, M. U., Vo, X. V., & Kang, S. H. (2020). Do Islamic stocks outperform conventional stock sectors during normal and crisis periods? Extreme co-movements and portfolio management analysis. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 62, 101385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101385
  10. Antonakakis, N., Chatziantoniou, I., & Gabauer, D. (2019). Cryptocurrency market contagion: Market uncertainty, market complexity, and dynamic portfolios. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 61, 37-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2019.02.003
  11. Arouri, M. E., ben Ameur, H., Jawadi, N., Jawadi, F., & Louhichi, W. (2013). Are Islamic finance innovations enough for investors to escape from a financial downturn? Further evidence from portfolio simulations. Applied Economics, 45(24), 3412–3420. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2012.707776
  12. Ashraf, D. (2013). Performance evaluation of Islamic mutual funds relative to conventional funds: Empirical evidence from Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern and Management, 6(2), 105–121. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538391311329815
  13. Ashraf, D., & Khawaja, M. (2016). Does the Shariah screening process matter? Evidence from Shariah compliant portfolios. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 132, 77–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.10.003
  14. Ashraf, D., Rizwan, M. S., & Ahmad, G. (2022). Islamic equity investments and the COVID-19 pandemic. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 73, 101765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101765
  15. Aysan, A. F., Demir, E., Gozgor, G., & Lau, C. K. M. (2018). Effects of the Geopolitical Risks on Bitcoin Returns and Volatility. Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 511-518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.09.011
  16. Azmat, S., Skully, M., & Brown, K. (2014). Issuer’s Choice of Islamic Bond Type. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 28, 122-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.08.008
  17. Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial Review, 45(2), 217-229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x
  18. Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(8), 1886–1898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.008
  19. Bhuiyan, R. A., Puspa, M., Saiti, B., & Ghani, G. M. (2020). Comparative analysis between global Sukuk and bond indices: value-at-risk approach. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research. 11(6), 1245-1256. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-02-2018-0019
  20. Boo, Y. L., Ee, M. S., Li, B., Rashid, M. (2017). Islamic or conventional mutual funds: Who has the upper hand? Evidence from Malaysia. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 42, 183-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.01.004
  21. Bouri, E., Shahzad, S. J. H., Roubaud, D., Kristoufek, L., & Lucey, B. (2020). Bitcoin, gold, and commodities as safe havens for stocks: New insight through wavelet analysis. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 77, 156-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2020.03.004
  22. Brownlees, C. T., Engle, R. F., & Kelly, B. T. (2011). A practical guide to volatility forecasting through calm and storm. Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1502915
  23. Cakir, S. & Raei F (2007). Sukuk vs. Eurobonds: Is there a difference in value-at-risk? International Monetary Fund Working Paper WP/07/237.
  24. Cevik, E. I., & Bugan, M. F. (2018). Regime-dependent relation between Islamic and conventional financial markets. Borsa Istanbul Review, 18(2), 114-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2017.11.001
  25. Cheema, M. A., Faff, R., & Szulczyk, K. R. (2022). The 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic: How safe are the safe haven assets?. International Review of Financial Analysis, 83, 102316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102316
  26. Conlon, T., & McGee, R. (2020). Safe haven or risky hazard? Bitcoin during the COVID-19 bear market. Finance Research Letters, 35, 101607. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101607
  27. Corbet, S., Larkin, C., & Lucey, B. (2020). The contagion effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Gold and Cryptocurrencies. Finance Research Letters, 35, 101554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101554
  28. Dewandaru, G., Rizvi, S. A. R., Masih, R., Masih, M., & Alhabshi, S. O. (2014). Stock market co-movements: Islamic versus conventional equity indices with multi-timescales analysis. Economic Systems, 38, 553–571. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.05.003
  29. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  30. El Mehdi, I. K., & Mghaieth, A. (2017). Volatility spillover and hedging strategies between Islamic and conventional stocks in the presence of asymmetry and long memory. Research in International Business and Finance, 39, 595–611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.04.006
  31. Engle, R. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102288618487
  32. Feng, W., Wang, Y., & Zhang, Z. (2018). Can cryptocurrencies be a safe haven: a tail risk perspective analysis. Applied Economics, 50(44), 4745-4762. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1466993
  33. Foglie, A. D., & Panetta, I. C. (2020). Islamic stock market versus conventional: Are Islamic investing a “Safe Haven” for investors? A systematic literature review. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 64, 101435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101435
  34. Glosten, L.R., Jagannathan, R., Runkle, D.E., (1993). On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks. Journal of Finance 48(5), 1779– 1801. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb05128.x
  35. Hasan, M. B., Hassan, M. K., Karim, Z. A., & Rashid, M. M. (2022c). Exploring the hedge and safe haven properties of cryptocurrency in policy uncertainty. Finance Research Letters, 46, 102272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102272
  36. Hasan, M. B., Hassan, M. K., Rafia, H. T., & Rashid, M. M. (2022b). Searching Hedging Instruments Against Diverse Global Risks and Uncertainties. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4164794.
  37. Hasan, M. B., Hassan, M. K., Rashid, M. M., & Alhenawi, Y. (2021a). Are safe haven assets really safe during the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic? Global Finance Journal, 50, 100668. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2021.100668
  38. Hasan, M. B., Hassan, M. K., Rashid, M. M., Ali, M. S., & Hossain, M. N. (2021b). Calendar anomalies in the stock markets: conventional vs Islamic stock indices. Managerial Finance, 48(2), 258-276. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-12-2020-0601
  39. Hasan, M. B., Rashid, M. M., Shafiullah, M., & Sarker, T. (2022a). How resilient are Islamic financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 74, 101817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101817
  40. Hassan, M. K., Hasan, M. B., & Rashid, M. M. (2021). Using precious metals to hedge cryptocurrency policy and price uncertainty. Economics Letters, 206, 109977. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109977
  41. Hassan, M. K., Paltrinieri, A., Dreassi, A., Miani, S., & Sclip, A. (2018). The determinants of co-movement dynamics between Sukuk and conventional bonds. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 68, 73-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.09.003
  42. Ho, C. S. F., Abd Rahman, N. A., Yusuf, N. H. M., & Zamzamin, Z. (2014). Performance of global Islamic versus conventional share indices: International evidence. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 28, 110-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.09.002
  43. Hossain, M. S., Uddin, M. H., & Kabir, S. H. (2021). Sukuk and bond puzzle: an analysis with characteristics matched portfolios. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 57(13), 3792-3817. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1706478
  44. Kroner, K. F., & Ng, V. K. (1998). Modeling asymmetric comovements of asset returns. The Review of Financial Studies, 11(4), 817-844. 10.1093/rfs/11.4.817
  45. Kroner, K. F., & Sultan, J. (1993). Time-varying distributions and dynamic hedging with foreign currency futures. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28(4), 535-551. https://doi.org/10.2307/2331164
  46. Laurent, S., Rombouts, J. V., & Violante, F. (2012). On the forecasting accuracy of multivariate GARCH models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27(6), 934-955. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1248
  47. Maghyereh, A. I., & Awartani, B. (2016). Dynamic transmissions between Sukuk and bond markets. Research in International Business and Finance, 38, 246-261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.04.016
  48. Masih, M., Kamil, N. K. & Bacha, O. I. (2018). Issues in Islamic equities: A literature survey. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1234370
  49. Mezghani, T., & Boujelbène, M. (2018). The contagion effect between the oil market, and the Islamic and conventional stock markets of the GCC country: Behavioral explanation. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 11(2), 157-181. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMEFM-08-2017-0227
  50. Mirza, N., Rizvi, S. K. A., Saba, I., Naqvi, B., & Yarovaya, L. (2022). The resilience of Islamic equity funds during COVID-19: Evidence from risk adjusted performance, investment styles and volatility timing. International Review of Economics & Finance, 77, 276-295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.09.019
  51. Naifar, N., & Hammoudeh, S. (2016). Do global financial distress and uncertainties impact GCC and global sukuk return dynamics?. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 39, 57-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.05.016
  52. Paltrinieri, A., Hassan, M. K., Bahoo, S., & Khan, A. (2019). A bibliometric review of Sukuk literature. International Review of Economics & Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2019.04.004
  53. Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika., 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
  54. Pirgaip, B., Arslan-Ayaydin, Ö., & Karan, M. B. (2020). Does Sukuk provide diversification benefits to conventional bond investors? Evidence from Turkey. Global Finance Journal, 50, 100533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2020.100533
  55. Ramelli, S., & Wagner, A. F. (2020). Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19. Review of Corporate Finance Studies, 9(3), 622–655. https://doi.org/10.1093/rcfs/cfaa012
  56. Rejeb, A. B. (2017). On the volatility spillover between Islamic and conventional stock markets: A quantile regression analysis. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 794-815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.017
  57. Shahzad, S. J. H., Aloui, C., Jammazi, R., & Shahbaz, M. (2019). Are Islamic bonds a good safe haven for stocks? Implications for portfolio management in a time-varying regime-switching copula framework. Applied Economics, 51(3), 219-238. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1494376
  58. Sharif, A., Aloui, C., & Yarovaya, L. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach. International Review of Financial Analysis, 70, 101496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101496
  59. Sherif, M. (2020). The impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on faith-based investments: An original analysis. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 28, 100403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100403
  60. Yarovaya, L., Elsayed, A. H., & Hammoudeh, S. (2021). Determinants of spillovers between Islamic and conventional financial markets: exploring the safe haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, 43, 101979. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.101979
  61. Yousaf, I., & Yarovaya, L. (2021). Spillovers between the Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies and equity markets during the COVID-19: A sectorial analysis. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 101705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101705