Open Access Journal Article

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return

by Ilhami Gunduz a,*
a
Department of Economics, Fordham University, Bronx, NY, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
JEA  2025 4(2):107; https://doi.org/10.58567/jea04020010
Received: 4 September 2024 / Accepted: 3 December 2024 / Published Online: 31 March 2025
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Abstract

In this study, I analyze the impact of the aggregate, income, corporate and social security tax revenues on both the U.S. output and the stock market return in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework between 1960:Q1 and 2015:Q4. Unlike some of the other studies, I use aggregate and disaggregated tax revenue variables to examine the impact of scal policy. Results show that an increase in aggregate tax revenue reduces output and market return. In addition, an increase in income, corporate, and social security tax revenues reduces output and the market return signi cantly at varying degrees.

Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Stock Market Return; Taxation; Financial Economics;
Copyright: © 2025 by Gunduz. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
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APA Style
Gunduz, I. (2025). The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return. Journal of Economic Analysis, 4(2), 107. doi:10.58567/jea04020010
ACS Style
Gunduz, I. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2025, 4, 107. doi:10.58567/jea04020010
AMA Style
Gunduz I. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return. Journal of Economic Analysis; 2025, 4(2):107. doi:10.58567/jea04020010
Chicago/Turabian Style
Gunduz, Ilhami 2025. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return" Journal of Economic Analysis 4, no.2:107. doi:10.58567/jea04020010

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ACS Style
Gunduz, I. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2025, 4, 107. doi:10.58567/jea04020010
AMA Style
Gunduz I. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return. Journal of Economic Analysis; 2025, 4(2):107. doi:10.58567/jea04020010
Chicago/Turabian Style
Gunduz, Ilhami 2025. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return" Journal of Economic Analysis 4, no.2:107. doi:10.58567/jea04020010
APA style
Gunduz, I. (2025). The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the U.S. Stock Market Return. Journal of Economic Analysis, 4(2), 107. doi:10.58567/jea04020010

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