Open Access Journal Article

Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data

by John Francis Diaz a,*
a
Department of Finance and Accounting, Asian Institute of Management, Makati, Philippines
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
JES  2025 3(1):18; https://doi.org/10.58567/jes03010001
Received: 2 October 2024 / Accepted: 25 March 2025 / Published Online: 9 April 2025
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Abstract

The paper studies Philippine poultry data and revisits the chicken or the egg causality problem to include ducks data. Using quarterly Philippine poultry production time-series from the first quarter of 1980 to the last quarter of 2014, this research finds that chickens came from eggs, which is consistent with the earlier statistical results of Thurman and Fisher (1988), and genetics-based conclusions of Eriksson et al. (2008). However, no conclusive evidence was found using the Philippine duck and duck eggs data. The chicken or the egg conundrum demonstrates the power of Granger causality testing in answering questions of temporal ordering that has various causal applications using macroeconomic, financial, and agricultural time-series data.

Keywords: Granger Causality; Philippine Poultry Production; Chickens; Ducks and Eggs;
Copyright: © 2025 by Diaz. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
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APA Style
Diaz, J. F. (2025). Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data. Journal of Economic Statistics, 3(1), 18. doi:10.58567/jes03010001
ACS Style
Diaz, J. F. Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data. Journal of Economic Statistics, 2025, 3, 18. doi:10.58567/jes03010001
AMA Style
Diaz J F. Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data. Journal of Economic Statistics; 2025, 3(1):18. doi:10.58567/jes03010001
Chicago/Turabian Style
Diaz, John F. 2025. "Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data" Journal of Economic Statistics 3, no.1:18. doi:10.58567/jes03010001

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ACS Style
Diaz, J. F. Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data. Journal of Economic Statistics, 2025, 3, 18. doi:10.58567/jes03010001
AMA Style
Diaz J F. Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data. Journal of Economic Statistics; 2025, 3(1):18. doi:10.58567/jes03010001
Chicago/Turabian Style
Diaz, John F. 2025. "Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data" Journal of Economic Statistics 3, no.1:18. doi:10.58567/jes03010001
APA style
Diaz, J. F. (2025). Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data. Journal of Economic Statistics, 3(1), 18. doi:10.58567/jes03010001

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