In this work we aim to identify potential determinants and seek to predict terrorism attack. Thus, to eliminate uncertainty linked to explanatory variables we used the BMA method. We show that, contrary to expectations terrorism in MENA region is no longer purely of economic origin but mainly due to political problems, education, financial development and countries’ demographic characteristics. Likewise, we find that national, international and global terrorism are not of same origins even they present many common roots. In the end, we show that it is possible to predict majority of attacks based on a small number of indicators measuring political risk, financial development and income inequalities.

This paper aims to study and quantify the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth along with other variables in Tunisia. For that purpose, we estimate the relationship between GDP, agricultural exports, other exports, and imports by applying the ARDL approach under the period 1990-2020. The results show a negative and insignificant impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in the long and short run. Other exports negatively and significantly impact economic growth, while imports are found to have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. The findings have economic implications for sectors and activities that should be promoted to accelerate economic growth.

This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.

Applying the network analysis’ tools and a large dataset over 2000-2017, this paper provides insights to the patterns and structure of global and regional migration and remittances as well as the connection between these two phenomena inside a complex network. We reveal that even though the structure of migration and remittance networks is slightly altering, the major changes have only occurred in the intensive margin of the networks. In addition, there is a deepening intra-regional trend regarding the structure of migration communities. By contrast, we observe an instability in the structure of migration and remittance communities formed around the U.S.

Utilizing a 2021 nationally representative sample of 7,504 White-owned employer businesses (WOBs) in the United States of America (USA), the extent, and the determinants of WOB business registration are estimated. Business registration is employed as a proxy for business in/formality. Approximately one-fifth (22.5%) of all employer WOBs are unregistered or informal business concerns hidden from government purview. The primary determinants of employer WOB informality are business size (annual revenues under $500,000 and few paid employees), a business owner with less than a four-year college degree, and an upbringing in a lower- or middle-class environment, among other findings. Notably, this research reveals the white lie of the magnitude of White-owned employer business informality in the USA.

This study empirically examines the effect of corporate governance on the relation between CEO power and firm leverage. Results from OLS and industry fixed effects regressions show that CEO power is positively associated with firm leverage. However, this association is driven by the strength of corporate governance as powerful CEOs tend to choose higher levels of debt only when corporate governance is strong. When corporate governance is weak, CEO power does not seem to have any effect on firm leverage. Overall, results indicate that strong corporate governance mitigates the severity of manager-shareholder conflicts and induces powerful CEOs to choose higher leverage.

This paper empirically investigates the relation between firm performance in corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the need and likelihood of external financing to test the predictions of agency and stakeholder theories. Empirical results from Logit, Linear Probability Model, OLS and Firm fixed effects regressions indicate that CSR is negatively related to the likelihood and level of external financing. Further analysis indicates that CSR has a negative and significant effect on both net equity issued (NEI) and net debt issued (NDI), the two components of external financing. Overall, the empirical results support the predictions of agency theory.

In reality firms most often face negatively sloped demand curves. Then, for a given level of consumers’ surplus, levies on prices yield higher fiscal revenues than specific duties. Therefore, according to the prevailing view, the switch from unit to ad valorem taxation is supposed to generate more welfare; some even speak of an associated Pareto-improvement. However, this is not true because taxing prices merely transfers profits to the Treasury, while total rent remains unaffected. Since excise duties diminish the welfare gain in comparison with untaxed trade, an appropriately designed income tax allows all parties to benefit. Sales should be taxed only exceptionally.

The paper addresses the alternative policy options available to address the question of lives versus livelihood in an SIRD model augmented with a macroeconomic structure. An important contribution of the paper lies in designing the policy of lockdown dependent on the extent of the constraint on the health facilities. The paper supplements the literature with a less stringent version of the lockdown policy, viz. soft lockdown policy which is shown to be more attractive from a public policy standpoint and has actually been practised in many countries across the globe during the recent pandemic. Finally, the optimal policy derived on the basis of the level of lockdown and adjustment of the binding constraint on health facilities depends on the objective of policy makers contingent on the relative weights of lives versus livelihood.

This study analyses the effects of piped water on household food consumption per capita by adopting inverse-probability-weighted regression adjustment and endogenous treatment effects approaches with data from the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey carried out in 2013 and 2017. A complementary analysis of the effects on primary household income per working-age member is also conducted to give insights into the potential consequences. The study also conducts a robustness check by estimating the fixed effects of piped water utilising village panel data. The results suggest that households using piped water are likely to enjoy higher food consumption per capita, with a complementary finding demonstrating that the use of piped water is likely to increase household income per working-age member.

Regulation of financial institutions has two key purposes: Solvency (prudential regulation) and consumer protection. Prudential regulation is implemented mainly by capital requirements, but governments also provide insurance for customer deposits, as a backup tool. In this article, we discuss the critical conditions for deposit insurance and capitalization to act as substitutes for each other, under cyclical economic environment. We make two assumptions. The first one is that deposit insurance is fairly priced and there is no moral hazard. The second one is that insurance creates incentives for moral hazard among insured banks, resulting in increased risk taking. We also discuss the critical conditions for deposit insurance and capitalization to be complementary under different proportions of deposit insurance.

This study focuses on the impact of trade in environmental goods (green trade) on the environment. We found that green trade can decrease pollution levels by exploiting a panel of 277 Chinese cities from 2004 to 2013 and using the instrumental variable (IV) strategy. However, total trade openness is far less favorable to the environment. We also found that both green imports and exports are conducive to the Chinese environment, while ordinary green trade performs better than green processing trade. Nevertheless, the effects of green trade are restricted by a city's purchasing power and absorptive capacity, as well as the classifications of environmental goods. Furthermore, green trade mainly promotes local green technological progress to benefit the environment.

Skateparks, often called 'wheel parks,' are becoming increasingly common within communities worldwide. Despite this growth in parks, estimates show that the development of parks needs to catch up to users. Using a count data travel cost model, we estimate the adult user benefits associated with the Lauridsen Skatepark in Des Moines, Iowa – the largest in the United States. We estimate adult user benefits to be $61 per user per day and roughly $488,000 annually. This work contributes to the literature by being the first study to use econometric techniques to estimate skatepark user benefits. Second, we develop a simple and easy-to-apply method to assist municipalities in determining community skatepark needs. Third, our results support the literature showing that skateboarders are increasingly diverse.

Innovation has received a great attention in the creative industries literature. We propose in this study a bibliometric method to examine the literature on innovation in creative industries (ICI). A file of 656 manuscripts published on ICI between 1998 and 2022 was retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection for analysis. The results highlight the evolution of study volume, authors, affiliated institutions and countries, author networks, keyword co-occurrences, and keyword networks. The study also includes a thematic map that highlights four types of research: driving themes (e.g., digital technology, cultural innovation, performing arts, product innovation, innovation management); core and cross-cutting themes (e.g., creativity, digitization, technology, copyright); emerging themes (e.g., gender, artificial intelligence, sustainability); and specialized and peripheral themes (e.g., gender, blockchain, digital music). We finally conclude by proposing future perspectives and a research agenda in this area.

This paper presents an operational framework for assessing the trajectories of production, energy, emissions, and capital accumulation to ensure the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The framework combines widely used methodologies (STIRPAT, system dynamics, and optimization) to simulate the pathways of variables until a target year. The CO-STIRPAT dynamic system allows us to identify the spillover pathways from carbon policy to economic growth based on output optimization principles; to conduct a more systematic analysis of the interconnections between the main drivers that determine carbon emissions; to develop a cost-effective climate policy mix that is a backbone for the right combination of carbon pricing, energy efficiency, and carbon intensity; and to assess NDC targets with respect to ambition gaps, implementation gaps, and feasibility.

In this paper I will show that budget deficit (or fiscal deficit) is necessary to achieve full employment under constant prices or inflation, using a model of endogenous growth in which consumers hold money for the reason of liquidity and live forever. Budget deficit need not be offset by future budget surpluses. I consider the continuous time case by taking the limit of the discrete time case when the time interval approaches zero. A continuous time dynamic model seems to be more general than a discrete time model. When the actual budget deficit is greater (smaller) than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, an inflation (a recession) occurs. The main argument of this paper is that a growing economy requires the continuation of budget deficit, and that we should not think of paying off the resulting government debt with taxes.

The very nature of work, labor market composition, and skill requirements are severely affected by technology-driven transformations currently underway with the 4^th industrial revolution (4IR). The effect of 4IR technologies on technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and the contribution of TVET to the labor market is explicit. The paper presents the findings of a study that investigated whether TVET institutions are prepared to face the challenges of 4IR. The data for the study were collected by surveying 428 teachers from 15 countries in Asia and the Pacific engaged in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields at the tertiary level. The findings of our study undoubtedly bring greater attention to the initiatives of TVET in these countries in preparing the workforce for job roles necessitated in the 4IR. The findings can also be used to frame policy recommendations for the growth of economies.

Understanding the economic trends and demographic dynamics of a country is crucial for policymakers and researchers to formulate effective strategies and policies. This study aims to examine the GDP trends and aging index dynamics in Portugal from 2011 to 2021, with a focus on regional disparities and their implications for demographic challenges. The findings highlight the relationship between regional GDP and the aging index, indicating that regions with higher GDP values tend to have a relatively younger population, while regions with lower GDP values have a relatively older population. The study contributes to the existing literature on population aging by providing insights into the demographic, economic, and social implications of an aging society. It provides valuable insights into the demographic, economic, and social implications of population aging in Portugal. The findings contribute to the existing literature and can inform policymakers and stakeholders in developing targeted strategies and policies to address the specific challenges faced by each region.

We present two approaches to forecasting parameters in the SABR model. The first approach is the vector autoregressive moving-average model (VARMA) for the time series of the in-sample calibrated parameters, and the second is based on machine learning techniques called epsilon-support vector regression (ε-SVR). Using daily data of S&P 500 ETF option prices from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2018, we first calibrate the daily values of the model parameters from the training sample, then conduct out-of-sample forecasting of parameters and pricing of options. Both approaches produce good fits between the forecasted and calibrated parameters for out-of-sample dates. A comparison study shows that using forecasted parameters as inputs, the SABR model generates better pricing results than assuming constant parameters or using lag parameters. We also discuss the market conditions under which one approach outperforms the other.

The construction and optimization of a portfolio is a complex process that has been a historically active research area in finance. For portfolios with highly correlated assets, the performance of traditional risk-based asset allocations methods such as the mean-variance (MV) model is limited when numerous assets are correlated. A novel clustering-based asset allocation method, called Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP), provides an opportunity to mitigate these limitations in portfolio construction. HRP utilizes the hierarchical relationships between the covariance of assets in a portfolio to determine weight distributions, eliminating the need for the inversion of the covariance matrix that is required by most traditional risk-based asset allocation methods. This research examines the viability of Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) method in portfolio construction of a US equity portfolio and compares the performances of HRP to traditional asset allocation methods exemplified by the mean-variance (MV) method. The results of this research show that the performance of the HRP method is comparable to the performance of the MV method. Given these findings, HRP provides an advantageous approach for portfolio construction in practical scenarios where correlated assets are present in the portfolios.