In his 1922 review for Cambridge Magazine of Keynes's A Treatise on Probability, and again in his 1926 review "Truth and Probability" (published in 1931 and republished in Kyburg and Smokler's 1980 edition), Ramsey provided examples critiquing Keynes's logical theory of probability. However, these examples do not disprove Keynes's theory as all of them are flawed. The flaws arise because all the pairs of propositions that Ramsey used to substantiate his criticisms are irrelevant to each other. Such irrelevant propositions are explicitly excluded from Keynes's theory in pages 4-6 of his A Treatise on Probability. This paper highlights that Ramsey's examples, which involve irrelevant propositions, do not disprove Keynes's Boolean, relational logic. The only other defense of Keynes's theory, put forth by Watt in 1989, was found to be deficient by Brady in 2022.

Forest resources, as one of the most important natural resources, have high ecological value. The calculation of their ecological value is an important part of improving the accounting of natural resources assets. Based on the analysis of the basic situation of China's forest resources, this paper starts from the economic theory of forest resources, discusses the principle of forest resources in national economic operation, analyzes the output, value, price and other issues of forest resources, and probes into the necessity of studying forest resources. Then, based on the purpose of compiling the balance sheet of natural resources, the forest resources accounting theory was studied from the aspects of subject and object, scope, table design and so on. On the basis of relevant theoretical research, the main ecological functions of different types of forest resources are discussed. In practical calculation, the parameters of some accounting methods are adjusted to adapt to the local situation. Some methods of ecological value calculation such as soil conservation and water conservation are put forward, and some ideas for further improvement are put forward. Finally, taking Qiandao Lake as an example, the ecological value of its forest resources is calculated. Through calculation, the annual soil conservation value of Qiandao Lake forest resources was obtained. Combined with the research conclusion and practice progress, the future research prospect is put forward.

Reckless behavior by business leaders can be a systemic risk for individual firms and the economies in which the firms exist. We propose that a synthesis of behavioral economics, in particular prospect theory, and the study of psychopathy may help researchers better understand why some business leaders engage in high-risk criminal activity. We propose that psychopathy is associated with an abnormal response to negative consequences. Where traditional Prospect Theory proposes that people are loss avoidant, we propose that people high on the trait of psychopathy may be more motivated by gains and will be risk seeking in high reward/high risk situations for which most people will avoid risk. We propose two empirical study designs that may be used to test the framework in the future.

The study explores online consumers’ impulse buying intentions and behaviors on live streaming platforms. Unlike traditional shopping modes, the development of real-time video streaming provides online consumers with a distinct approach to interacting with live streamers and browsing online products in real-time, potentially causing their impulse buying intentions. To understand online consumers’ impulse buying intentions and behaviors, the paper establishes the research model based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) model and analyses influencing factors from attitude, subject norm and perceived control aspects. Through the data analysis based on the partial least squares path modelling and variance-based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM), the research results show that, three factors positively affect online consumers’ impulse buying intentions and lead to their final behaviors. Meanwhile, control variables, including gender, age, and income level, demonstrate insignificant effects across the model. Unlike existing literature, the current study displays the distinct features of live streaming platforms and discovers online consumers’ impulse buying intention based on the TPB model. The results are helpful for related scholars and departments to pay more attention to the live shopping environment and understand online consumers’ impulse buying issues.

Trust beneficiary protection constitutes an important legal system in the trust industry. This paper, based upon the study approach of the “Theory of Law and Finance”, establishes the trust beneficiary protection index of China. We also test the influence of trust beneficiary protection on the performance of trust companies. As indicated by our study’s results, an “inverted U-shaped” relationship exists between the degree of trust beneficiary protection and the performance of trust companies. In a period when the trust law system has not yet been well established, strengthening trust beneficiary protection could help facilitate the growth of trust company performance. However, this facilitation effect gradually diminishes as the trust law system becomes more perfect. This in turn means that, after reaching a certain peak, conferring the beneficiary with more rights of supervision and participation would cause the performance of trust companies to decline. Improving regional legal environments could also help facilitate the growth of trust company performance. In addition, this facilitation effect is subject to the influence of the nature of trust company controllers. In trust companies controlled by local state-owned capitals, we find that the facilitation effect of the improvement of regional legal environments on trust company performance is inhibited. In trust companies controlled by non-state-owned capitals, however, the facilitation effect of the improvement of regional legal environments on trust company performance is enhanced.

Competitive balance indicates the degree of control participating teams have over a sports competition. Supporters look for excuses to justify their team’s defeat and the triumph of their rivals. If the competition has required a preliminary qualifying group stage, they will argue that the winning team was in an "easy group" from the start, and their team was unlucky to be in a "difficult group". It is therefore of interest to determine what is an "easy group" and what is a "difficult group". This is directly related to the concept of competitive balance. We have a wide range of indices to measure competitive balance. We will use the Distance to Competitive Balance, a standardized index that complies cardinality property. The perfectly unbalanced distribution is the truncated cascade, which allows the maximum value of concentration to be obtained. We focus our attention on the UEFA Champions League, before and after competition, and we measure the competitive balance of the qualifying stage groups between the 1999/2000 and 2022/2023 seasons. The composition of the UEFA Champions League groups seems to be balanced and has no influence on which team will be the champion. A highly competitive group will be more "difficult" in terms of qualifying than a highly concentrated one. Supporters say that their team was unlucky to be in a “difficult” group, but the data does not prove them right.

The purpose of the study is to determine the relationships between the factors, attitude towards food consumption and green purchase intention in organic food markets of Pakistan. A Total of 301 sample data was analyzed by SPSS and PLS-SEM. These statistical techniques were used to test the hypotheses. The study was supported the theories include theory of Reasoned Action, Planned Behavior, and expectancy-value model of attitude theory. It also enhances the intention of purchase to buy organic food. The study found that environment, consciousness of health, and safeties of food have significantly direct and indirect influence on Intention of purchase while, taste of food, and exposure of media only have significantly indirect effect on Intention of purchase. The study recommended that retailers should advertise organic food via social media or channels as media persuasively increase the chances to grab the consumer attention to buy the product.

The paper focuses on younger online viewers’ motivation to watch video game live streaming on live streaming platforms. Unlike existing scholars, it analyses younger online viewers’ watching motivation through a positive perspective and draws on the Play-Others-Downtime theory (P-O-D theory) and the motivation theory to establish the research model. By analysing 397 samples based on the variance-based structural equation modelling and partial least squares path modelling (SEM-PLS), the results present that younger viewers’ entertainment, social and leisure purposes positively affect their watching motivation. Control variables (i.e., gender, education background, and income level) demonstrate insignificant effects across the model. Considering the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, watching video game live streaming is essential entertainment and social activities for younger adults. Future studies should identify the positive impact of video game live streaming and guide younger viewers to participate appropriately in this activity.

This paper empirically investigates the relation between firm performance in corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the need and likelihood of external financing to test the predictions of agency and stakeholder theories. Empirical results from Logit, Linear Probability Model, OLS and Firm fixed effects regressions indicate that CSR is negatively related to the likelihood and level of external financing. Further analysis indicates that CSR has a negative and significant effect on both net equity issued (NEI) and net debt issued (NDI), the two components of external financing. Overall, the empirical results support the predictions of agency theory.

According to economic theory and common sense, the issuance of consumption coupons on one hand stimulated the increasing of residents' consumption, but on the other pushed up the price level. In this paper, using the theory of mechanism design, the game model was built to analyze the relationship between the effect of consumer coupons during the epidemic and the number of merchants participated. The results show that the smaller the merchants’ number, the weaker the coupons’ effect, vice versa. Then, using KNN regression method, combined with the monthly year-on-year data of CPI from 1998 to 2020, this paper analyzes the changes of CPI forecast value and actual value in the first 10 months of 2020, finding that the actual value of CPI is higher than the predicted one during the first two months of 2020, but lower from March 2020 on, which further verifies the conclusion of game analysis.

As the underlying institutional design for enterprise risk management, it is important to study whether and how internal control affects enterprise technological innovation in the current context of increased economic policy uncertainty. Based on the principal-agent theory and information asymmetry theory, this paper explores the impact of internal control on corporate technological innovation using the listed company data from 2009-2019 CSMAR database, and obtains the following research conclusions: (1) the quality of internal control positively affects the corporate technological innovation. (2) The operational risk plays an intermediary role in the relationship between the internal control affecting the corporate technological innovation. (3) The degree of market competition positively moderates the impact of internal control on enterprise technological innovation. (4) Relative to non-stateowned enterprises and non-high-tech enterprises, the quality of internal control of state-owned enterprises and high-tech enterprises has a more significant impact on enterprise technological innovation. This paper enriches the consequences of the study of internal control on the one hand, and on the other hand, it provides a new perspective for improving technological innovation, and it provides certain guidance for further improving the level of corporate governance.

Many of Keynes´s ideas and concepts are proven correct in this paper. The demand side, mainly business investments, drives the economy. Business firms steer the business cycle via profit expectations and animal spirits. Injections to and withdrawals from the circular flow of income are multiplied throughout the economy in accordance with Keynes´s multiplier. A sudden and sharp rise in households´ saving rates has a detrimental effect on aggregate demand, in line with Keynes´s paradox of thrift. Finance, not saving in the S=I sense, is the necessary condition for business investments and economic growth to be realized. Keynes´s finance motive thus makes money endogenous, contradicting the textbook result that exogenous money steers aggregate demand, contradicting the mainstream loanable funds theory and putting into question the Keynesian theory of sticky prices as a condition for real growth. However, a crucial omission in Keynes´s productive writings is the lack of an accelerator tying income to investment. Some of his followers such as Paul Samuelson tried to remedy that by developing multiplier-accelerator models. The problem with them is that the accelerator lacks micro foundations, in specific disregarding business confidence. Linking macro accounting identities with empirical national accounts data for five major economies produces the finding that business firms explain more than all aggregate expenditure growth during a 25-year period. Thus, it is concluded that business confidence is the root of the business cycle. Making the accelerator account for business confidence casts new light on the perhaps most well-known Keynesian “truth”: active fiscal policy as a main force stabilizing the business cycle. With business confidence being the endogenous and ubiquitous variable driving the business cycle, it turns out that any exogenous factor has the possibility to affect it. Policy needs to be viewed as a competing factor to the factor(s) driving the cycle in the other, destabilizing direction. The more powerful those factors are (e.g., a deadly virus), the tougher it gets for policy to “win” the competition, turning business confidence around. This leads up to the paper´s main conclusion: the worse the economy, the stronger is the case for active fiscal policy, but the lesser is the chance for it to succeed.

Human factor inputs are key to promoting agricultural modernisation. Traditional economic theory suggests that improving human capital is the key to boosting agricultural productivity, but can this conclusion hold in China's dualistic economic structure? We use Chinese provincial panel data from 2000-2017 to examine the impact of rural human capital inputs on agricultural total factor productivity. We find that, on the whole, rural human capital inputs have a negative effect on agricultural total factor productivity, and that there is a "rural human capital trap". Mechanism analysis reveals that rural human capital inputs, on the one hand, cause labour loss and reduce the quality of agricultural workers, while on the other hand, they may promote the application of mechanization, which has both positive and negative effects on agricultural total factor productivity. Heterogeneity analysis finds that this negative effect is more pronounced in the central region of China because of the serious loss of rural labour. This study provides new policy insights for further improving the structure of rural education inputs and promoting human capital accumulation in agriculture.

As the COVID-19 epidemic swept the world in early 2020, it is worth watching how it affects the total factor productivity of enterprises. Based on the theory of information asymmetry and the data of A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2021, this paper conducts an empirical study on the relationship between COVID-19 and the total factor productivity of enterprises. The results show that the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic can significantly reduce the total factor productivity of enterprises, and the conclusion is still true after a series of robustness tests. Taking the financing constraint as an intervening variable, it clearly reveals a transmission mechanism, that is to say, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic exacerbates the financing constraint of the enterprise, thus it makes the total factor productivity of the enterprise reduce. It is further found that the above effects are more obvious for small and medium-sized enterprises and non-intelligent enterprises. Based on this, the government should implement some active economic development policies to create a free, relaxed and orderly market environment for enterprise financing. At the same time, enterprises should not only pay attention to digital and intelligent development, and transform into technology-intensive enterprises, but also strengthen the awareness of worry. Enterprises should store "more grain" for preparing for the cold winter.

The Human Development Index (HDI) aims to present a more robust picture of a country’s development status than that suggested by national income per capita. The HDI aggregates dimension indices based on transformed measures for the core values of health, education, and income per capita. Assumptions are made regarding the upper and lower bounds used to re-scale each core value into its dimension index, as well as the functional form used to create the HDI. The treatment of income in the HDI’s construction suggests incompatibilities with its underlying capability theory, which stresses the importance of individuals’ abilities to make their own consumption and life choices. We examine the currently formulated HDI, as well as two influential proposed alternatives which generalize the aggregation functions of the pre-2010 HDI formulation and the current HDI, in light of recent empirical research into the relationship between well-being and income. We use underlying data for 2016, a representative year, to examine distributional changes as well as specific country rankings. We find that the income bounds used to calculate the income dimension index in the HDI should be changed. We also suggest that the three aggregation formulations, along with prominent descriptions of the assumptions and consequent implications of each approach, should be disseminated for policymakers and the public to consider.

Given the rapid development of live streaming commerce in China, this study focuses on the interactivity and sociability of live streaming shopping activities and explores online consumers’ real-time interaction intentions and trust-building behaviours with online merchants. To discover the real-time interaction between online consumers and online merchants, this study builds a research model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Through the data analysis based on the partial least squares path modelling and variance-based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM), the key findings state that, three factors, including attitude, subject norm, and perceived control, positively affect online consumers’ real-time interaction intentions and lead them to build trust with online merchants. Meanwhile, control variables, including gender, age, and educational background, demonstrate insignificant effects across the model. Unlike existing literature, the current study pays much attention to the interactive characteristics of live streaming shopping activities and can provide some valuable suggestions both for online consumers and online merchants, which can promote the co-development of the commercial and social aspects of live streaming platforms.

The high price of energy due to green energy policy will cause adjustments across the US economy predicted in the present general equilibrium model that includes energy Btu input with capital and labor to produce manufactures and services. This same model in trade theory examines the effects of a tariff on an imported factor of production such as a natural resource or capital.  Corresponding error correction estimates of the reduced form equations of the model in annual 1970-2018 data prove robust and suggest model modifications. A parametric approach to noncompetitive pricing based on unit cost diminishing with output brings the model much closer to the estimates. Manufactures are revealed to have a higher degree of noncompetitive pricing than services. Assuming constant elasticity of substitution production, a weak degree is revealed to provide the best fit to the error correction estimates. The high price of green energy will cause an inelastic decrease in energy input resulting in increased energy revenue. Outputs of both sectors fall, more in manufactures due to its energy intensity. The capital return and wage also fall given the weak substitution of capital and labor relative to the price of energy. The wage rises slightly in the model but falls considerably in the error correction estimate. The only clear winner is energy input with increased revenue. The government owns a large share of hydrocarbon reserves and will benefit from a higher price of energy.

Giving full play to the interaction of multi-dimensional environmental regulation is an important method to accelerate the green transformation of manufacturing enterprises which is a significant way to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the theory of evolution game, a green transformation strategy evolution game model participated by the government, consumers, and manufacturing enterprises has been constructed. Stability research is conducted based on the behavioral mode of the three parties participating subjects and the paper uses MATLAB for numerical simulation to analyze the impact of environmental regulations of different dimensions on the green transformation of enterprises. The research shows that: (1) When the government adopts a single environmental regulation of carbon emission right transaction or green consumption subsidy, it will not affect the choice of green transformation strategies of the enterprise. (2) When the government adopts a single environmental regulation of environmental protection tax, it only promotes enterprises to choose green transformation strategies under limited conditions. (3) Under the multi-dimensional environmental regulations of the government, by affecting the cost and income of enterprise green technology innovation, consumers’ green consumption behavior, and the manufacturing enterprises choose green transformation as a stable strategy. Therefore, the government should give full play to the role of multi-dimensional environmental regulations in promoting consumers' green consumption and enterprises’ green technology innovation to accelerate the green transformation of manufacturing enterprises.

Spence’s signaling model (Spence, 1973) suggests that education can signal workers’ unobserved ability to employers thereby mitigating discrimination. There have been several studies concerning education’s impact on labor market discrimination against minority or disadvantaged groups. Our approach in this inquiry is unique in that we utilize the data of PhD recipients, a group of people with the highest education attainment, to test Spence’s theory. Another novelty of this paper is that in addition to examining possible discrimination against women and foreign-born, as has been done in previous studies, we further explore possible discrimination against the physically challenged individuals. Our baseline results show conflicting results that Ph.D. education can reduce discrimination against disability and foreign-born but not against gender. Further analysis by the Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition shows that the wage gaps of gender and disability come more from the unobserved part than the explained part, while the foreign-born wage gap come more from the observable human capital differences. Since prejudice is an unobserved factor and we know that the disadvantaged groups are likely to suffer from prejudice (Oaxaca, 1973; Blinder, 1973; Montes-Rojas et al., 2017; Deshpande and Khanna, 2018), we conjecture that prejudice might be attributable to the unexplained part of the wage gaps. Furthermore, prejudice might be deeply rooted in one’s mind, thus difficult to remove even with the influence of education. Hence, our results reveal that it would be hard for Ph.D. education to eradicate the discrimination against gender and disability, but not against foreign-born.