This paper evaluates the fit-for-purpose of the monetary policy measures implemented by the Bank of Ghana in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the effectiveness of the BoG’s policy interventions in the context of vector autoregressions augmented with macroeconomic and financial indicators. We demonstrate that the BoG’s monetary policy measures have had nominal, real, and financial effects. The monetary interventions have been successful, as evidenced by the gradual reduction in the sovereign spread, improved financial stability, and increased real economic activity. Our findings suggest that balance sheet actions are less effective and should be moderated in the conduct of monetary policy in jurisdictions without zero lower bound constraints. However, the analysis indicates that in times of crisis, central banks should deploy both standard and non-standard tools to stabilize dysfunctional financial markets and avoid a deflationary spiral. The historical and variance decomposition of the data reveal that monetary policy shocks have historically made the largest contributions to the targeted macro-financial aggregates during the pandemic episodes.

This study examined the determinants of the exchange rate in a mono-resource economy, during the period of currency and oil price fall in Nigeria. The aim of the study is to ascertain the potentiality of economic diversification (non-oil export) in saving the falling value of the domestic currency, as well as, its stability. The study employed the use of monthly data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation from January 2008 to December 2020 using the ARDL and NARDL models to achieve the stated objectives. In the literature, several empirical studies analyzed the relationship between exchange rates, oil price, and oil export and came to the logical conclusion that a rise in the price of oil would bring about a rise in the exchange rate, all things being equal while the reverse is the case. To add to the existing body of knowledge this study did not only look at the relationship between the variables but also examined the determinants of the exchange rate in a mono-resource economy and ascertained the potentiality of economic diversification in bringing succor to the falling exchange rate in the midst of falling oil price. The NARDL result corroborates the findings of previous studies on the relationship between exchange rate, oil price, and the performance of non-oil export. It maintains that positive changes in oil prices would lead to the appreciation of domestic currency while negative changes in oil prices would lead to the depreciation of the domestic currency. With this analysis, the study recommends the diversification of the economy and revitalization of the non-oil sector. Since import proves to have a negative impact on the exchange rate, the revitalization of the non-oil sector stimulates domestic consumption and thus reduces import bills which raise the demand for the dollar and weakens the naira.

By an endogenous growth model with a two-period overlapping generations structure, I examine the existence of a budget deficit in an economy that endogenously grows by investments of firms. The consumers leave bequests to their descendants and hold money as a part of their savings. I use a Barro-type utility function, where people include the utility of their children in their own utility. The main results are as follows. 1) A budget deficit is necessary for full employment under constant prices. 2) Inflation is induced if the actual budget deficit is greater than the value at which full employment is achieved under constant prices. 3) If the actual budget deficit is smaller than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, a recession occurs. Therefore, a balanced budget cannot achieve full employment under constant prices. I do not assume that the budget deficit must later be made up by a budget surplus. I use a Barro-type utility function to prove the necessity (or inevitability) of a budget deficit instead of the neutrality of government debt. In the appendix of this paper, I show that if money, as well as goods, are produced by capital and labor, a budget deficit is not necessary for full employment under constant prices.

Liquidity and its associated issues are one of dominant strands in the market microstructure. In this study, microblogging-based behavioral perspective on economic unrest is linked to the market liquidity. The concept of liquidity is examined in terms of price dispersion relative to the quantity traded. The analysis contains the quantification of multiple linear regression, Gaussian distribution technique, and vector error correction methodology. In the economic stability period, the investor’s mood, either in positive manner or pessimistic context, had an influential role on the price impact volume-based liquidity. Meantime, the probability was higher for occurrence of price impact volume-based liquidity in response to the sentiment indicators. In the economic unrest environments, the positive bias investor’s mood was not vigorous enough to influence the dispersion of asset’s prices and trading quantity. Most importantly, the negative bias investor’s emotion was linked to increase the dispersion of asset’s prices relative to the quantity traded. Investors with a lower amount of trading quantity had declined the liquidity in the market. Additionally, there was a higher probability for occurrence of illiquidity in the pessimistic market periods. However, changes in past sentiment series were not associated with changes in pervious liquidity series, either in short run or long run. The findings may be potentially applicable to manage the behavioral perspective of liquidity risk.

This work investigates the strength and the pattern of linkages among the three markets of qualitatively differentiated milk (i.e., conventional, organic without heymilk, and organic with heymilk) in Austria using the flexible TVP-VAR frequency connectedness approach and information on prices from 2018 to 2023. The main empirical findings are: (a) Taken together, the markets have maintained a moderate degree of connectedness to each other.  (b) Price linkages have been frequency-dependent; much of the adjustments to incoming information have been completed within 3 months. (c) Connectedness has been asymmetric; the highest quality (organic with heymilk) has been a net transmitter of price shocks to organic without heymilk. (d) The intensity of connectedness has been time-varying; however, the internal structure of the market network (i.e., the net transmitters and receivers of price shocks) has remained fairly stable.

I examine the problem of budget deficit in a growing economy in which consumers hold money as a part of their savings in the case where consumers live forever. For simplicity and tractability I use a discrete time dynamic model and Lagrange multiplier method. In the appendix I briefly explain the solution using a discrete time version of the Hamiltonian method. I will show the following results. 1) Budget deficit is necessary for full employment under constant prices. 2) Inflation is induced if the actual budget deficit is greater than the value at which full employment is achieved under constant prices. 3) If the actual budget deficit is smaller than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, a recession occurs. Therefore, balanced budget cannot achieve full employment under constant prices. I do not assume that budget deficit must later be made up by budget surplus.

Investment funds are increasingly focusing on ESG issues, seeking to contribute to improving environmental, social, and governance concerns. ESG-focused investing involves promoting good ESG performance and may result in a decrease in expected financial returns. This may lead to a conflict between solely profit-focused shareholders and ESG-focused investors, who may respond accordingly. As such, a firm's ESG commitment may trigger several events that can affect the stock price. A firm's ESG commitment may increase its stock price; however, the end of such commitment may also positively affect the stock price. Hedge funds may consider this in their activism which may reshape the way hedge funds target firms and influence their actions accordingly.

Because of the complexity of indirect financial intermediary services (FISIM) accounting, the traditional price index deflation method can no longer meet its accounting needs. The manual of price and volume measurement suggests that the stock deflation method and output index method should be used to calculate the volume of FISIM. Comparing the two accounting frameworks, it can be found that the key to the implementation of the stock deflation method is to set a scientific and reasonable deflation index from two aspects of service price and the service quantity, while the key of the output index method is the selection of the output index and the determination of weight. This paper compares the application cases of stock deflation method and output index method in practice, summarizes the similarities, differences, advantages and disadvantages of each case in index construction, index selection and weight determination, and further provides a reference for China FISIM volume accounting.

The objectives and tasks of the European Central Bank (ECB) are defined in Articles 2 and 3 of Protocol (No 4) on the Statute of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) and of the European Central Bank (ECB). While in Article 3,1° of this Protocol other tasks are mentioned, the prime objective of the ESCB and therefore of the ECB, is price stability. This concept was originally specified by the Executive Board of the ECB as an annual increase of less than 2% in the inflation rate over the medium term, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area. This paper examines to what extent the ECB has been effective in realizing price stability over the period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022. Price stability is important for economic agents. It allows them to plan their savings, spending and investment eventually resulting in sustained economic growth.   Notwithstanding the commitment of large human and other resources and the use of unconventional monetary policies, the ECB did not realize its prime objective during a large part of this period. We conclude that putting too much confidence in DSGE-modeling as one of the methodologies to determine monetary policy, may have played an important role in the ECB not achieving its main statutory objective.

We present two approaches to forecasting parameters in the SABR model. The first approach is the vector autoregressive moving-average model (VARMA) for the time series of the in-sample calibrated parameters, and the second is based on machine learning techniques called epsilon-support vector regression (ε-SVR). Using daily data of S&P 500 ETF option prices from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2018, we first calibrate the daily values of the model parameters from the training sample, then conduct out-of-sample forecasting of parameters and pricing of options. Both approaches produce good fits between the forecasted and calibrated parameters for out-of-sample dates. A comparison study shows that using forecasted parameters as inputs, the SABR model generates better pricing results than assuming constant parameters or using lag parameters. We also discuss the market conditions under which one approach outperforms the other.

The rapid growth of renewable solar and wind energy necessitates extensive, long-term energy storage solutions to stabilize the electric grid and address the intermittent nature of these sources. In the absence of cost-effective long-duration, large-scale (LDLS) energy storage, there is a risk of increased disruptive blackouts and brownouts as intermittent energy sources approach 50% of electricity generation. Our analysis underscores volumetric energy density as a pivotal determinant in LDLS energy storage solutions, which is particularly crucial during periods of diminished renewable resource availability, such as the rainy season. Despite emphasis on conventional electric batteries and mechanical storage technologies such as compressed air and pumped hydro for LDLS, their costs pose a significant obstacle to widespread adoption, especially in emerging economies. In this study, we present a groundbreaking approach to LDLS: on-demand electricity generation from carbon-neutral renewable oil, known as "green oil," leveraging Reliance’s innovative catalytic hydrothermal liquefaction (R-CAT-HTL) technology. Our investigation evaluated two distinct sources of green oil production: organic waste streams (e.g., municipal solid waste, agricultural-waste, etc.) and on purpose production of algal biomass. We demonstrate that burning renewable green oil to produce electricity offers a cost-effective solution for large-scale (GWh) long-duration (many days) energy storage, ensuring the stability, reliability, and resiliency of the electric grid. We also demonstrate that minimum 14 days, ideally 30 days energy storage is needed for continuous uninterrupted service, especially critical for manufacturing facilities. Through a meticulous levelized cost of storage (LCOS) analysis comparing green oil with other LDLS technologies reported in literature, we demonstrate the cost effectiveness of green oil. In this model, green oil serves as stored energy, functions akin to a battery and is efficiently converted into electricity through conventional reciprocating engines or next-generation more efficient turbines. Our findings suggest that green oil derived from diverse organic sources is the most economically viable option for GWh-scale storage, particularly when storage requirements extend beyond a single day. This research thus presents a transformative cost-effective solution to the pressing challenge of LDLS energy storage, accelerating a sustainable and resilient energy future.

Using an international dataset, this letter finds that high stock returns are associated with increased death rates from drug use disorders. Although the out-of-pocket expenditure on healthcare also rises following a stock market surge, the net effect on life expectancy is significantly negative.

Energy Performance Certificates are a key tool for achieving energy efficiency in the building sector. The existence of this type of legislation provides incentives for the energy renovation of buildings, increases energy-efficiency investments, and improves social welfare. At the same time, informational asymmetries are mitigated and energy consumption is reduced. However, the decarbonization of the building sector might influence regional energy poverty, especially because the rural energy poor are more vulnerable to energy price increases than their urban counterparts. Empirical research on rural-urban differences and the effects of Energy Performance Certificates is urgently needed, given the rising fuel prices and vulnerabilities of the energy market.

In reality firms most often face negatively sloped demand curves. Then, for a given level of consumers’ surplus, levies on prices yield higher fiscal revenues than specific duties. Therefore, according to the prevailing view, the switch from unit to ad valorem taxation is supposed to generate more welfare; some even speak of an associated Pareto-improvement. However, this is not true because taxing prices merely transfers profits to the Treasury, while total rent remains unaffected. Since excise duties diminish the welfare gain in comparison with untaxed trade, an appropriately designed income tax allows all parties to benefit. Sales should be taxed only exceptionally.

Consideration of optimal commodity storage with different discount rates. Finding that, even with a lower discount rate than private storage, optimal government-financed storage may not narrow price fluctuations compared with optimal privately financed storage because a government has to choose a probability of buffer stock failure greater than zero to economize on storage costs that could conceivably become very large. There is no presumption that government financed storage would be larger, with narrower intervention bands and more stable prices, than with privately-financed storage. The welfare enhancing effect of government financed storage compared to private storage is therefore indeterminate.

This paper provides an overview of the existing literature on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in various fields, including economics, finance, mining, manufacturing, and innovation. The paper identifies the drivers and effects of AI deployment in the context of innovation and highlights the challenges and opportunities that arise from the use of AI. The studies reviewed in this paper cover various topics related to forecasting, including the impact of AI on professional skills, hybrid forecasting techniques for predicting commodity prices, and novel deep reinforcement learning algorithms for crude oil price forecasting. The paper’s contribution lies in its systematic and comprehensive approach to reviewing the literature, which allows for a better understanding of the impact of AI on various fields and the identification of strategies to address the challenges that arise from its deployment.

In this paper I will show that budget deficit (or fiscal deficit) is necessary to achieve full employment under constant prices or inflation, using a model of endogenous growth in which consumers hold money for the reason of liquidity and live forever. Budget deficit need not be offset by future budget surpluses. I consider the continuous time case by taking the limit of the discrete time case when the time interval approaches zero. A continuous time dynamic model seems to be more general than a discrete time model. When the actual budget deficit is greater (smaller) than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, an inflation (a recession) occurs. The main argument of this paper is that a growing economy requires the continuation of budget deficit, and that we should not think of paying off the resulting government debt with taxes.

This paper examines the efficiency, in its weak form, of the clean energy stock indices, Clean Coal Technologies, Clean Energy Fuels, and Wilderhill, as well as the cryptocurrencies classified as "dirty", due to their excessive energy consumption, such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETH Classic), and Litecoin (LTC), from January 2020 to May 30, 2023. In order to meet the research objectives, the aim is to answer the following research question, namely whether: i) the events of 2020 and 2022 accentuated the persistence in the clean energy and dirty energy indices? The results show that clean energy indices such as digital currencies classified as "dirty" show autocorrelation in their returns; the prices are not independent and identically distributed (i.i.d). In conclusion, arbitrage strategies can be used to obtain abnormal returns, but caution is needed as prices can rise above their real market value and reduce trading profitability. This study contributes to the knowledge base on sustainable finance by teaching investors how to use forecasting strategies on the future values of their investments.

This paper attempts to introduce an overlapping generations structure into Paul Krugman's "The world's smallest macroeconomic model" (Krugman (1999)) to examine the implications of fiscal policy, particularly fiscal deficits, in a framework suitable for policy analysis. In that paper, Krugman argued that under the price rigidity assumption, a shortage in the money supply leads to underemployment and recession, so increasing the money supply would eliminate underemployment and restore full employment. But how can the money supply be increased? I show that in order to restore full employment out of a recession, a fiscal deficit is needed to increase the money supply. I also show that in a growing economy, fiscal deficits are necessary to maintain full employment at constant prices or inflation. Fiscal deficits are not only effective in pulling the economy out of recession, they are even necessary for growth to continue without recession or inflation. The fiscal deficit in this paper represents the difference between government spending and government revenues. If this difference is positive, we say that the government is in deficit. Krugman's original model is a one-period static model. I intend to extend this model to a dynamic overlapping generations model.

In his "The World’s smallest macroeconomic model” (Krugman (1999)), Paul Krugman argued that under the assumption of price rigidity, a shortage of money supply leads to underemployment or recession, so increasing money supply can eliminate underemployment and restore full employment. But, how do we increase the money supply? I will show that we need a government deficit to increase the money supply in order to restore full employment from recession. Also, I will show that in a growing economy, if people hold money, a government deficit is necessary to maintain full employment under constant price or inflation. A government deficit is not only effective in pulling the economy out of recession, it is even necessary for continued growth without inviting either recession or inflation. The government deficit in this paper represents the difference between government expenditures and government revenues. When the difference is positive, we say that the government has a deficit. This paper seeks to explore theoretically and normatively the role of government deficits in achieving and maintaining full employment in a growing economy without causing inflation, using a very simple model by Krugman.