class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">Excessive volatility in financial markets can disrupt economic activity, affect investor and consumer confidence, and potentially lead to financial crises in an economy. Due to this backdrop, this study examined the link between asset class volatility and the output gap in Nigeria. The asset classes were categorized into stock, crude, gold, and bitcoin. The study adopted the GARCH and Bayesian VAR approach and found that all share index has an initial negative impulse with output gap while other asset classes have a positive impulse on output gap. The outcome of this study revealed to both policymakers and economists the potential risks and vulnerabilities of asset class volatility in the economy. Based on this result, recommendations are made amongst which is the strengthening of the Nigerian stock market to help with the inflationary pressures this is because the Nigerian stock market hurt the output gap also, the government should prioritize investing in crude, gold, and bitcoin to push the actual output to full capacity, which brings about employment.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">The rise of privately issued digital currencies, which primarily serve as alternative investment assets poses a challenge to the traditional financial instruments traded in the financial market. This study examines the dynamic relationship between the major privately issued digital currency (Bitcoin) and two financial market securities in Nigeria. The paper employed Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and presents three relevant findings. First, the impulse response function indicates the absence of a significant response of the Nigerian financial market to shocks emanating from the Bitcoin market, implying lower connectedness between the two markets. Secondly, the outcome of the variance decomposition reveals a lower contribution of Bitcoin to changes in stock prices and treasury bills, however, stock prices and treasury bills contributed higher impact to each other compared to the contribution of Bitcoin. Thirdly, a weak bi-directional causality between the Bitcoin and treasury bills was observed and a uni-directional causality running from treasury bills and stocks, implying the existence of portfolio rebalancing from the fixed income to the equities market. Despite the weak connection between digital currency and the financial market, the paper recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Securities and Exchange Commission should maintain monitoring the development of crypto exchanges and continue reviewing the existing policy restricting cryptocurrency transactions through banks to avoid its unsavoury effects.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">The paper is motivated by the growth of the electronic payments system and its relevance in enhancing the banking industry's earnings. Consequently, the paper examines the causal relationship between the electronic payments system and the banking industry's returns in Nigeria. The paper offers some important contributions to the literature involving the use of an approach that allows for data-driven identification of the change points in the electronic payments system and the banking industry's returns nexus. The paper discovered three important findings. First, the causal relationship between the electronic payments system and the banking industry's returns in Nigeria changes with time changes. Second, there is evidence of causality between the electronic payments system and returns on assets and equity, however, the causality was more evident under the recursive window. Third, the causal relationship was more evident in some specific periods such as 2020Q4, all quarters of 2015 to 2016, and 2020 to the end of 2023. The paper recommends that policymakers should revisit and reinvigorate the specific cashless policies instituted in 2012-2016 that aided higher returns to the banking industry. Similarly, the Central Bank of Nigeria and other banking industry players should intensify efforts to encourage the use of electronic payments due to their usefulness and ability to enhance the banking industry's earnings.

The sensitive nature of interest rate has spurred empirical interests on the factors that determine it. This paper examined the joint impact of exchange rate and foreign direct investment inflows on interest rate in Nigeria over the period from 1981-2022. The study made use of the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and results of findings reveal that in both the short-run and the long-run the impact of the interaction between FDI inflows and exchange rate on real interest rate was negative and significant. Also, while credit to the private sector was found to have significant positive impact on real interest rate in both the time horizons, the impact of consumer price index was negative only in the short. Oil revenue was found to impact positively on real interest rate only in the long-run, but the impact of broad money supply was negative and significant in both the short-run and the long-run. The study suggests that policies to regulate domestic interest rate should focus on joint regulation of both exchange rate and FDI inflows and this requires a synergy between monetary and fiscal policies.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt; text-align: justify;">Gold has been traditionally well recognized as a safe heaven for financial markets. Lately, Bitcoin has been gradually considered as a popular alternative. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, it has become even more necessary and critical to examine the diversification capability of them to hedge financial risks associated with an unexpected crisis comparable to the pandemic. This paper hence employs the wavelet analysis, complemented by the multivariate DCC-GARCH approach, to measure the coherence of the gold and Bitcoin prices with six representative stock market indices, three for developed economies and three for emerging economies, all of which are heavily affected by the pandemic. To have a more balanced and comprehensive analysis, two-year data are used, spanning from 12th April 2019 to 15th April 2021, which covers approximately one year before and one year after the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest that the returns of both gold and Bitcoin are generally not strongly correlated with the market returns of all six indices, particularly for short-term investment horizons. That is, investors in all six indices can benefit through gold, as well as Bitcoin, in terms of hedging. Meanwhile, compared with Bitcoin, gold shows to be less correlated with the indices, particularly for long-term investment horizons. The findings hence suggest that gold and Bitcoin offer diversification benefits to investors in the market indices during a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic, especially for short-term investment horizons. The study also reminds policymakers thinking beyond the pandemic about the future of the earth, including air pollution and health, for sustainable development of the whole world.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">Liquidity and its associated issues are one of dominant strands in the market microstructure. In this study, microblogging-based behavioral perspective on economic unrest is linked to the market liquidity. The concept of liquidity is examined in terms of price dispersion relative to the quantity traded. The analysis contains the quantification of multiple linear regression, Gaussian distribution technique, and vector error correction methodology. In the economic stability period, the investor’s mood, either in positive manner or pessimistic context, had an influential role on the price impact volume-based liquidity. Meantime, the probability was higher for occurrence of price impact volume-based liquidity in response to the sentiment indicators. In the economic unrest environments, the positive bias investor’s mood was not vigorous enough to influence the dispersion of asset’s prices and trading quantity. Most importantly, the negative bias investor’s emotion was linked to increase the dispersion of asset’s prices relative to the quantity traded. Investors with a lower amount of trading quantity had declined the liquidity in the market. Additionally, there was a higher probability for occurrence of illiquidity in the pessimistic market periods. However, changes in past sentiment series were not associated with changes in pervious liquidity series, either in short run or long run. The findings may be potentially applicable to manage the behavioral perspective of liquidity risk.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">As prices have grown at their fastest pace in recent times, inflation has become a key concern for the macro-policy environment. In many jurisdictions, consumer prices have typically formed the basis for price stability policies. Notwithstanding, producer prices remain an important channel and must be closely watched. We utilise data on Ghana and investigate the causal links between consumer and producer inflation and assess the necessity to include producer inflation target in the monetary policy rule. Our VECM and Granger causality analyses show that consumer and producer prices exhibit very stable long-term relationship and short-term gaps between the two tend to normalise over time. The relationship between consumer and producer prices has not been a one-sided lag structure, even though producer prices lead more than lag consumer prices. We conclude that Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy design that does not distinguish between consumer and producer inflation is less problematic at the moment.

We extend the Shariah-compliant digital assets and Islamic Fintech literature through exploring the time-frequency associations between the volatility index (VIX) and cryptocurrencies (both Islamic and traditional). Employing wavelet-based technique, we find that Islamic cryptocurrencies demonstrate low or no coherency with stock market volatility compared to traditional cryptocurrencies (except Tether) during the whole time and frequency bands, highlighting the hedging capabilities of Islamic cryptocurrencies. Tether also serves the same against VIX, as there is a low or favorable link between these variables. Finally, our findings would be prolific to digital currency traders and investors in designing the portfolio strategies.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">Banks operating within a free economic environment and with constructive regulatory frameworks can function with enhanced efficiency, augmenting their profitability. This study aimed to examine the influence of economic freedom and financial restrictions on banks' profitability within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation member nations. The study used a sample of 1453 banks, collecting panel data spanning 13 years. The System-GMM methodology was justified based on the enduring characteristics of the data and the profitability metrics. The dependent variables, namely the Net Income Margin, Return on Average Assets, and Return on Average Equity were individually examined. The research findings indicate that most economic freedom indicators, except for investment freedom, harm bank profitability. The influence of the rule of law on profitability indicators is mostly adverse, although regulatory quality within the financial system has a comparatively favorable effect on profitability. Furthermore, bank-specific performance indicators had a negative impact on profitability, except for bank size. Moreover, country-specific variables substantially impact banks' profitability, including inflation, tax, and interest rates. The presence of Islamic banking has been shown to substantially impact the profitability performance of banks within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. OIC banks' profitability is adversely impacted by the ongoing health crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">Using an international dataset, this letter finds that high stock returns are associated with increased death rates from drug use disorders. Although the out-of-pocket expenditure on healthcare also rises following a stock market surge, the net effect on life expectancy is significantly negative.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">We develop a four-party model involving banks, merchants, consumers, and platform firms to explain why large shopping malls can offer interest-free installment services to consumers. Using a collaboration between an online shopping platform firm and multiple banks to issue co-branded credit cards as a natural experiment, we find that consumers’ spending on the platform fulfills the requirements for merchants and banks to choose a four-way model. This study highlights the pivotal role of platform firms in the credit card market.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the systemic risk of the fintech industry. To achieve this goal, we first estimate the evolution of system-wide systemic risk using the CatFin method. We further examine whether EPU significantly affects systemic risk. Our findings demonstrate that the systemic risk of the fintech industry is time-variant and sensitive to major crisis events. Systemic risk tends to increase after major crises, especially the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. EPU has a considerable impact on systemic risk, notably during periods of turmoil.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">The relation between fund flows and returns in the Australian ETF industry is assessed in this study. Daily data from 43 equity ETFs over the period 2019-2023 are used. The main research objective is to accentuate whether past returns can predict future fund flows and in what way and vice versa. According to the results of the applied regression analysis, past flows and past returns can predict to some extent concurrent flows. This is also the case about concurrent returns. However, in both cases, the results are not unanimous and depend on the specification of the applied regression model.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">This paper explores how digital technology reduces trade costs using bilateral trade data from RCEP member countries and a panel fixed effects model. The findings show that digital technology significantly lowers trade costs, a conclusion that holds even after accounting for lag effects and various robustness checks. The impact of digital technology on trade costs follows an inverted U-shape: the effect is most significant in the current period, especially with a one-period lag, and diminishes over time. Larger economies and higher export levels strengthen this negative impact due to their reliance on exports and continuous improvements in domestic digital technology. The study recommends investing in digital infrastructure, formulating reasonable internet access policies, supporting digital skills development, and enhancing digital connectivity to bridge the digital divide, thereby promoting trade facilitation and efficiency.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">I examine the problem of budget deficit in a growing economy in which consumers hold money as a part of their savings in the case where consumers live forever. For simplicity and tractability I use a discrete time dynamic model and Lagrange multiplier method. In the appendix I briefly explain the solution using a discrete time version of the Hamiltonian method. I will show the following results. 1) Budget deficit is necessary for full employment under constant prices. 2) Inflation is induced if the actual budget deficit is greater than the value at which full employment is achieved under constant prices. 3) If the actual budget deficit is smaller than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, a recession occurs. Therefore, balanced budget cannot achieve full employment under constant prices. I do not assume that budget deficit must later be made up by budget surplus.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">This paper examines the efficiency, in its weak form, of the clean energy stock indices, Clean Coal Technologies, Clean Energy Fuels, and Wilderhill, as well as the cryptocurrencies classified as "dirty", due to their excessive energy consumption, such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETH Classic), and Litecoin (LTC), from January 2020 to May 30, 2023. In order to meet the research objectives, the aim is to answer the following research question, namely whether: i) the events of 2020 and 2022 accentuated the persistence in the clean energy and dirty energy indices? The results show that clean energy indices such as digital currencies classified as "dirty" show autocorrelation in their returns; the prices are not independent and identically distributed (i.i.d). In conclusion, arbitrage strategies can be used to obtain abnormal returns, but caution is needed as prices can rise above their real market value and reduce trading profitability. This study contributes to the knowledge base on sustainable finance by teaching investors how to use forecasting strategies on the future values of their investments.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">There must be a better match between the supply of financial news graduates in colleges and the media's demand for financial news talents. Based on 300 questionnaires and in-depth interviews from three universities, namely Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, and Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, this paper uses the interview method to excavate the professional quality improvement path for majoring in financial news students. Results reveal that undergraduates majoring in financial news have problems such as low professional identity, insufficient recognition of the discipline system, poor sense of professional identity, common matching between job selection and majors, and worrying about the status quo of professional literacy. Therefore, the improvement of the professional quality of students majoring in financial news and the reform of the training program needs to drive the professional quality of students in multiple dimensions, change their professional cognitive problems, strengthen their professional identity, and achieve an effective match between supply and demand of financial media professionals.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">In his "The World’s smallest macroeconomic model” (Krugman (1999)), Paul Krugman argued that under the assumption of price rigidity, a shortage of money supply leads to underemployment or recession, so increasing money supply can eliminate underemployment and restore full employment. But, how do we increase the money supply? I will show that we need a government deficit to increase the money supply in order to restore full employment from recession. Also, I will show that in a growing economy, if people hold money, a government deficit is necessary to maintain full employment under constant price or inflation. A government deficit is not only effective in pulling the economy out of recession, it is even necessary for continued growth without inviting either recession or inflation. The government deficit in this paper represents the difference between government expenditures and government revenues. When the difference is positive, we say that the government has a deficit. This paper seeks to explore theoretically and normatively the role of government deficits in achieving and maintaining full employment in a growing economy without causing inflation, using a very simple model by Krugman.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 8pt; line-height: 15pt; text-align: justify;">This study compares return and volatility performance of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with high-ESG (Environment, Social, and Governance) rating vs. low-ESG rating. The paper also examines time-series data predictability by identifying their positive dependence and volatility asymmetry properties, and examines the performance of two combinations of short-memory models i.e., autoregressive moving average and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARMA-EGARCH); autoregressive moving average and asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARMA-APARCH) and two long-memory models, autoregressive moving average and fractionally integrated exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-FIGARCH); and autoregressive fractionally-integrated moving average and asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-APARCH). The study found that low-ESG rating ETFs on average have slightly significant higher returns and also lower volatility compared to their high-ESG rating counterparts. Evidence of asymmetric volatility properties are also present on both high-ESG and low-ESG rating ETFs returns. The study also observed that for both high-ESG and low-ESG rating ETFs denote a stationarity, but non-invertible process in their returns. Results can provide fresh understanding in the topic of leverage effects and volatility that can open future research channels to academicians.

class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;">The study investigates the impact of COVID-19 on African exchange rates, employing a panel dataset over the period 2016-2022 from 13 African economies and employing pooled OLS estimator. The findings reveal a noteworthy positive correlation between COVID-19 levels and exchange rates within the region. However, this association necessitates deeper exploration due to its multifaceted implications, including economic disruptions, government interventions, global market interconnections, regional stability perceptions, and investor behavior. Economic indicators, such as GDP, inflation rate, real interest rate, and unemployment rate, significantly influence exchange rates. While GDP positively impacts exchange rates through economic growth, investor confidence, and trade strength, controlled inflation fosters investor confidence and export competitiveness, positively affecting exchange rates. Moreover, a pronounced positive impact of the real interest rate indicates economic stability, attracting investment and contributing to currency appreciation. Conversely, high unemployment negatively affects exchange rates, signaling economic weaknesses and eroding investor confidence. These findings emphasize nuanced policy responses for managing health crisis-induced economic disruptions and suggest future research directions focusing on specific country-level analyses and multifaceted factors influencing currency valuations within African economies.