Banks are at the core of economic functioning in various countries and are the cause of their development in various fields. In a changing environment, they must deal with certain risks and maintain financial stability as the ultimate objective. The primary objective of this study is to examine the correlation between credit risk and bank stability within the Tunisian banking sector, with a specific focus on understanding the moderating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve this, we employ several econometric techniques, including panel unit root and cointegration tests, panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our empirical analysis relies on a panel dataset that encompasses a comprehensive sample of 8 Tunisian banks over 2000-2020. The results of our analysis unveil a significant negative relationship between credit risk and bank stability, indicating that higher levels of credit risk exert a detrimental effect on the overall stability of Tunisian banks. Furthermore, our study highlights that this adverse impact is further exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that the pandemic acts as a moderator. The findings of this study hold substantial implications for policymakers, regulators, and bank managers in Tunisia. They emphasize the critical importance of implementing robust risk management practices to mitigate credit risk and bolster bank stability. Additionally, the research underscores the need to consider the unique challenges introduced by external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, when assessing the overall stability of the banking system.

Credit markets around the world are undergoing digital transformation which has led to the rise in FinTech and BigTech lending. FinTech and BigTech lending is the provision of credit by FinTech and BigTech providers who have more capital, cutting-edge IT systems, worldwide recognition, greater online presence and are able to handle more big data on computers and mobile phones than traditional banks. FinTech and BigTech lending is growing in importance, but the determinants of FinTech and BigTech lending have received little attention in the literature. This study investigates the determinants of FinTech and BigTech lending. The study focused on the effect of financial inclusion and financial development on FinTech and BigTech lending. Using data for 18 countries from 2013 to 2019 and employing the difference-GMM and 2SLS regression methods, the findings reveal that financial inclusion and financial development are significant determinants of FinTech and BigTech lending. Financial development is a positive determinant of FinTech and BigTech lending while financial inclusion has a significant effect on FinTech and BigTech lending. Also, FinTech and BigTech lending lead to greater banking sector stability and also poses the risk of rising nonperforming loans. There is also a significant positive correlation between financial development and FinTech and BigTech lending. These findings add to the emerging literature on the role of FinTech and BigTech in financial intermediation. This research is significant because it provides insights into the role of financial inclusion and financial development in the digital transformation of credit markets.

This study investigates the impact of financial inclusion on environmental sustainability in 178 emerging and developing countries from 1996 to 2022. Employing a composite index derived through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) as a measure of financial inclusion and covering four aspects (access, depth, efficiency, stability), our analysis reveals negative outcomes. The findings indicate that enhancing financial inclusion is associated with a notable increase in CO2 per capita emissions as well as in Total Greenhouse Gas emissions. We demonstrate that controlling corruption improves environmental quality, yet this measure alone is insufficient to fully mitigate the impact of financial inclusion, as indicated by our moderation analysis. The same analysis, however, shows that fostering globalization through trade openness is an efficient tool to alleviate the positive effect of financial inclusion on the quality of the environment. The study employs various policies targeting the control of development levels, energy consumption, natural resource utilization, industry, and urban population dynamics to contextualize the influence of financial inclusion on environmental sustainability. Through econometric methods and a comprehensive examination of the specified time frame, our results provide insights into the complex interplay between financial inclusion and environmental outcomes in diverse socio-economic contexts. The research contributes to the discourse on sustainable development by highlighting the potential of certain factors as a catalyst for environmental improvement. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers, as it underlines the trade-off between integrating inclusive financial strategies and achieving environmentally sustainable development trajectories in emerging and developing nations. Moreover, shedding light on the underlying mechanisms, such as trade-offs, fills a significant gap in the literature.

This paper examines impacts of China’s financial liberalization policy on income inequality, through three channels: financial scale, financial structure and financial efficiency, an empirical analysis based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1996 to 2013 is conducted. The results confirm the Kuznets effect between financial scale, financial structure and income inequality. As the size of the financial sector expands, the financial structure is tilted toward direct financing, and the income gap among residents will experience a "reverse U-shaped" trend that rises first and then falls. Most of China has not yet passed the turning point, and is still in the upper bound of the "inverted U-shaped" curve. Financial liberalization policies will continue to exacerbate income inequality. The impact of financial efficiency on income distribution is quite different in different regions of China. After dividing the whole China into three regions according to the degree of economic development, it is found that the financial efficiency of the eastern and western regions has a Kuznets effect on the income gap, but compared with the eastern region, more provinces and cities in the western region have entered the stage of reducing the income inequality, and the financial development has a great impact on the western region. The effects of financial development on central China are weak, and income inequality increases with financial efficiency.

Financial literacy seems to be more important and focused than ever. Several recent studies have found that Portugal is at bottom of the table compared to the Eurozone countries regarding financial literacy. As it’s a key factor in the development of a country, it appears to be crucial to understand what people know about financial matters when they complete compulsory schooling. With a sample of 296 Portuguese students who enrolled in the polytechnic higher education system for the first time, we studied if they understand simple concepts related to financial issues (such as loans), as well as whether they are aware of the risk of not recovering the money invested that is embedded in some of the most talked-about and common financial products that are available in the market. This last objective seems to be relevant since a lot of fraudulent schemes involving teenagers, young adults, and financial markets have emerged in recent years. From the results, some disturbing conclusions can be drawn. For instance, more than two-thirds of the sample do not know what Euribor is (similar result regarding Spread). About a third of the simple do not understand inflation’s consequences. 16,9% do not know what term deposits are, and derivative products and saving certificates are seen as very alike regarding the risk they represent. Students who chose a business-related course as their first choice when applying showed a higher level of financial literacy, although it is still low compared to what one would expect.

This paper evaluates the fit-for-purpose of the monetary policy measures implemented by the Bank of Ghana in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the effectiveness of the BoG’s policy interventions in the context of vector autoregressions augmented with macroeconomic and financial indicators. We demonstrate that the BoG’s monetary policy measures have had nominal, real, and financial effects. The monetary interventions have been successful, as evidenced by the gradual reduction in the sovereign spread, improved financial stability, and increased real economic activity. Our findings suggest that balance sheet actions are less effective and should be moderated in the conduct of monetary policy in jurisdictions without zero lower bound constraints. However, the analysis indicates that in times of crisis, central banks should deploy both standard and non-standard tools to stabilize dysfunctional financial markets and avoid a deflationary spiral. The historical and variance decomposition of the data reveal that monetary policy shocks have historically made the largest contributions to the targeted macro-financial aggregates during the pandemic episodes.

Based on fully considering the actual differences in statistical indicators between Hong Kong, Macao, and the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta, this paper constructs a high-quality urban development evaluation system that is suitable for the actual development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The Entropy Weighted TOPSIS two-step method is used to process data and systematically investigate the changes in the high-quality development index of 11 cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2013 to 2020. The study found that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has thoroughly implemented the new development concept, and the level of high-quality development has continued to improve. The profound integration effect of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has appeared, and it has promoted the high-quality development of the region in coordination. The construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has strongly promoted the great practice of "one country, two systems" to achieve stability and prosperity.

The long-term extensive economic development has caused China's resource and environmental problems, especially the resource misallocation. The way China prioritises its limited resources is being significantly impacted by the rise of the digital economy and the interconnectedness of new technologies and the real economy. This paper quantitatively examines the linear and nonlinear impacts and mechanisms of digital development represented by internet development. With a series of empirical tests, we found that the internet development has significantly inhibited the resources misallocation, and the conclusion is still valid in the robustness test with internet popularization and internet infrastructure as the core explanatory variables. In addition to the marketization, internet development can further inhibit resource misallocation by promoting financial development, openness, urbanization and industrial structure. The findings of threshold regression suggest that the inhibitory effect of internet growth on resource misallocation becomes more visible as the degree of financial development and industrial structure increases; with the higher degree of urbanisation and marketization, although the internet development has always played an inhibitory role on resource mismatch, the inhibitory effect first increases and then decreases; with the improvement of openness, the hindering impact of internet growth on resource mismatch becomes more visible as the degree of financial development and industrial structure increases.

In this work we aim to identify potential determinants and seek to predict terrorism attack. Thus, to eliminate uncertainty linked to explanatory variables we used the BMA method. We show that, contrary to expectations terrorism in MENA region is no longer purely of economic origin but mainly due to political problems, education, financial development and countries’ demographic characteristics. Likewise, we find that national, international and global terrorism are not of same origins even they present many common roots. In the end, we show that it is possible to predict majority of attacks based on a small number of indicators measuring political risk, financial development and income inequalities.

The diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Pakistan have undergone significant development since the late 1990s. Despite some studies focusing on diplomatic and political relations, the economic dimension of this partnership has not been systematically covered. In this paper, a robust least squares (RLS) approach is used to model bilateral trade between the two countries and identify statistically significant determinants, including economic, institutional, and cultural factors, after analyzing the main economic and subsectoral trade dynamics of both countries. The results reveal that Azerbaijan's imports from Pakistan are significantly associated with the country's higher income and market size, while Pakistan's elevated exchange rate and trade costs hinder bilateral trade. In addition, Pakistan's rising manufacturing output increases exports to Azerbaijan but decreases imports from Azerbaijan. Among institutional determinants, government effectiveness, the trade freedom index (TFI), and political stability play significant roles in bilateral trade. Lastly, it was found that cultural proximity increases Pakistani exports to Azerbaijan but not imports from Azerbaijan. The analysis also indicates that domestic savings stimulate Pakistani exports. These findings underscore the complex nature of bilateral trade between Azerbaijan and Pakistan and highlight the need for institutional arrangements to harmonize trade flows and boost welfare gains from trade. The results may be of great importance to intergovernmental working groups, domestic policymakers, and businesses.

Stock indexes are used as a barometer of economic health, and fluctuations in these markets can have a substantial influence on the economy. For example, the Covid-19 pandemic caused severe economic disruption, as reflected in stock market indexes. Similarly, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has geopolitical implications that might undermine global trade and economic stability, impacting stock market indexes. Considering these developments, the purpose of this article is to examine the co-movements of the stock markets of Austria (ATX), Poland (WIG), the Czech Republic (PX Prague), Hungary (BUX), Croatia (CROBEX), Serbia (BELEX 15), Romania (BET), and Slovenia (SBI TOP) from February 16, 2018, to February 15, 2023. To achieve the research objectives, the aim is to answer the following research question: i) Have the events of 2020 and 2022 accentuated the co-movements between the stock markets in Central Europe? The results show the presence of 21 shocks between markets (out of a potential 56) during the Tranquil subperiod, with the WIG stock index having a greater predictive influence on the behavior of its peers (4 shocks out of 7 possible). During the Stress subperiod, 45 shocks were confirmed (out of 56 possible). The markets that triggered the most market shocks (7 out of 7 possibilities) were BET, BUX, CROBEX, and SBI TOP. The research question was validated based on the conclusion supplied, as all markets increased their movements, showing a considerable effect of the 2020 and 2022 events on these markets.

With the development of information technology and its application in environmental governance, the role of the internet in improving energy efficiency and reducing energy-saving potential (ESP) has attracted more attention. In this study, the slack-based model (SBM) and the unexpected model, along with the entropy method, were applied to measure China's energy-saving potential and internet development. Further, we empirically analyzed the direct effect, mediating effect, threshold effect, and regional heterogeneity of the internet on ESP. Our conclusion shows that there is a significant spatial correlation between internet penetration and ESP. Internet penetration has become an important tool for reducing ESP, but this effect shows regional heterogeneity. Human capital accumulation, financial development, and industrial upgrading are important influencing mechanisms, but indirect effects are weaker than direct effects. The impact of internet penetration on ESP is non-linear, and for improving human capital accumulation, financial development, and industrial upgrading, the role of internet popularization in energy conservation is more obvious.

This study examined the determinants of the exchange rate in a mono-resource economy, during the period of currency and oil price fall in Nigeria. The aim of the study is to ascertain the potentiality of economic diversification (non-oil export) in saving the falling value of the domestic currency, as well as, its stability. The study employed the use of monthly data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation from January 2008 to December 2020 using the ARDL and NARDL models to achieve the stated objectives. In the literature, several empirical studies analyzed the relationship between exchange rates, oil price, and oil export and came to the logical conclusion that a rise in the price of oil would bring about a rise in the exchange rate, all things being equal while the reverse is the case. To add to the existing body of knowledge this study did not only look at the relationship between the variables but also examined the determinants of the exchange rate in a mono-resource economy and ascertained the potentiality of economic diversification in bringing succor to the falling exchange rate in the midst of falling oil price. The NARDL result corroborates the findings of previous studies on the relationship between exchange rate, oil price, and the performance of non-oil export. It maintains that positive changes in oil prices would lead to the appreciation of domestic currency while negative changes in oil prices would lead to the depreciation of the domestic currency. With this analysis, the study recommends the diversification of the economy and revitalization of the non-oil sector. Since import proves to have a negative impact on the exchange rate, the revitalization of the non-oil sector stimulates domestic consumption and thus reduces import bills which raise the demand for the dollar and weakens the naira.

Green credit policy (GCP) relies on financial means to promote environmental governance. Whether it can achieve the goals of economic development and environmental protection, especially in the context of different institutional supplies, remains to be scientifically tested. Based on the implementation of China’s Green Credit Guidelines in 2012, this study uses panel data of Chinese companies from 2009 to 2019 to explore the influence of GCP on green technology innovation and the role of institutional supply in it. The results show that GCP is instrumental in promoting green innovation in heavily polluting enterprises, and the promotion effect is heterogeneous based on green patent types, firms’ ownership, and regional financial development levels. Further analysis finds that the supply of environmental protection systems by local governments can strengthen the green innovation effect of GCP. However, the institutional supply of innovation has not yet released a promotional effect. This paper finds that green credit can be used as an environmental governance tool and provides inspiration for local governments to issue environmental protection policies scientifically.

This paper examines the information content of selected US industries focusing on the dynamic linkages among these industries, the stock market and a number of fundamental variables. The period of investigation spans from January 1960 to December 2021. The empirical strategy includes several methodologies such as regressions, vector autoregressions and volatility models. The idea is to investigate the dynamic linkages among these series at both the mean and the volatility levels. The results point to significant industry returns’ explanatory power for many predictors of economic activity including the stock market. Further, time-varying analysis of the linkages among the industries and the stock market’s returns reveal that certain industries such as Oil and Financials provide consistent information leadership over other industries and across decades. Further, upon assessing the industry–market return volatility spillovers, it was found that a market risk–return profile may not always be economically significant and timely for investors. Finally, crises, financial or otherwise, affect industries but to differing degrees.

Credit scoring remains one of the most important subjects in financial risk management. Although the methods in this field have grown in sophistication, further improvements are necessary. These advances could translate in major gains for financial institutions and other companies that extend credit by diminishing the potential for losses in this process. This research seeks to compare statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) predictors in a credit risk analysis setting, namely the discriminant analysis, the logistic regression (LR), the artificial neural networks (ANNs), and the random forests. In order to perform this comparison, these methods are used to predict the default risk for a sample of companies that engage in trade credit. Pre-processing procedures are established, namely in the form of a proper sampling technique to assure the balance of the sample. Additionally, multicollinearity in the dataset is assessed via an analysis of the variance inflation factors (VIFs), and the presence of multivariate outliers is investigated with an algorithm based on robust Mahalanobis distances (MDs). After seeking the most beneficial architectures and/or settings for each predictor category, the final models are then compared in terms of several relevant key performance indicators (KPIs). The benchmarking analysis revealed that the artificial intelligence methods outperformed the statistical approaches.

We explore the connectedness and portfolio implications between Islamic and conventional bonds in global and GCC regions. We also compare which bonds performed better during our sample period. Unlike previous studies, we focus on Islamic bond markets compared to their conventional counterparts and highlight the GCC bonds (Islamic and conventional) in respect of global bonds. We apply the DCC-GJR-GARCH (1,1) method, the Sharpe ratio, and the portfolio implications strategy over the period from September 1, 2013, to February 23, 2022. Our time-varying results suggest that the relationship among all variables varies over time, but most of them are positive, suggesting that there are fewer diversification opportunities between Islamic and conventional bonds. Hedging and diversification benefits are found only in the limited period among these variables, especially between GCC bonds and global bonds, and global Sukuk and GCC Sukuk. The findings of risk-adjusted returns reveal that Islamic bonds outperform their conventional counterparts. Moreover, mixed results are found in the case of hedging costs, and the majority of the fund, based on optimal weights, should be invested in Islamic bonds. Our study endows investors and regulators in the global and GCC markets with new insights on how to shield their investments and the financial system from financial crises through a hedging strategy with Islamic finance.

Regulation of financial institutions has two key purposes: Solvency (prudential regulation) and consumer protection. Prudential regulation is implemented mainly by capital requirements, but governments also provide insurance for customer deposits, as a backup tool. In this article, we discuss the critical conditions for deposit insurance and capitalization to act as substitutes for each other, under cyclical economic environment. We make two assumptions. The first one is that deposit insurance is fairly priced and there is no moral hazard. The second one is that insurance creates incentives for moral hazard among insured banks, resulting in increased risk taking. We also discuss the critical conditions for deposit insurance and capitalization to be complementary under different proportions of deposit insurance.

This study explores the cause and effect of endogenous risk aversion in land pricing, where state intervention through taxation remains a general practice. Using a consumption-based asset pricing model incorporating taxation, it is shown that high taxation, due to the indexation effect, supporting land prices and reducing individuals' risk expectations, could lead to an endogenous decrease in risk aversion, which could result in market dysfunction because risk aversion plays a key role in the market mechanism. China, with its wholly state-owned land and the general use of land sales to cover financial deficits, is a typical case for empirical tests. The tests confirm that there, the rise in land prices was driven by the increase in reserve prices set by local governments, a strong means of taxation, and not by the market, indicating the endogenous decrease in risk aversion.

Motivated by the Blackorby-Schworm (1993) observation that market outcomes may differ from those originating in market-actor optimization, this paper claims that the number of banks in the market is larger than the number justified by bank profit maximization alone or in combination with bank depositor welfare maximization. This claim is made within the context of bilateral monopoly banks and intertemporal utility maximization by bank depositors. The basic policy implication towards bank population rationalization is a minimization of the deviation away from the optimal interest rate margin at every stage of the business cycle. It is meant to be an acyclical policy though the target of optimal bank population is attainable by active countercyclical policy as well. The nature of this policy issue makes the use of macroprudential measures imperative, jointly perhaps with a fiscal-monetary policy mix. A dynamic version of the model in a Cournot environment is akin to the modeling of Minsky's hypothesis of financial fragility.