The Weibull distribution is extensively useful in the field of finance, insurance and natural disasters. Recently, It has been considered as one of the most frequently used statistical distributions in modelling and analyzing stock pricing movement and uncertain prediction in financial and investment data sets, such as insurance claims distribution. It is well known that the Bayes estimators of the two-parameter Weibull distribution do not have a compact form and the closed-form expression of the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained. In this paper and the Bayesian setting, it is assumed that the scale parameter of the Weibull model has a gamma prior under the assumption that its shape parameter is known. A simulation study is performed using random claims amount to compare the performance of the Bayesian approach with traditional maximum likelihood estimators in terms of Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for different sample sizes, with specific values of the scale parameter and shape parameters. The results have been compared with the estimated result via the maximum likelihood method. The result revealed that the Bayesian approach behaves similarly to the maximum likelihood method when the sample size is small. Nevertheless, in all cases for both methods, the RMSE and MAE decrease as the sample size increases. Finally, applications of the proposed model to the insurance claim data set have been presented.

Excessive volatility in financial markets can disrupt economic activity, affect investor and consumer confidence, and potentially lead to financial crises in an economy. Due to this backdrop, this study examined the link between asset class volatility and the output gap in Nigeria. The asset classes were categorized into stock, crude, gold, and bitcoin. The study adopted the GARCH and Bayesian VAR approach and found that all share index has an initial negative impulse with output gap while other asset classes have a positive impulse on output gap. The outcome of this study revealed to both policymakers and economists the potential risks and vulnerabilities of asset class volatility in the economy. Based on this result, recommendations are made amongst which is the strengthening of the Nigerian stock market to help with the inflationary pressures this is because the Nigerian stock market hurt the output gap also, the government should prioritize investing in crude, gold, and bitcoin to push the actual output to full capacity, which brings about employment.

This paper analyses a model of private value auctions with symmetric risk-neutral bidders, where bidders' private values of an indivisible good are fuzzy. The auction is studied as a game with incomplete information. Fuzzy random variables, their quantile functions, and expressions for expectations through quantile functions are used. An explicit expression for the solution is found. Also, expected bidders' payments are studied.

In this work we aim to identify potential determinants and seek to predict terrorism attack. Thus, to eliminate uncertainty linked to explanatory variables we used the BMA method. We show that, contrary to expectations terrorism in MENA region is no longer purely of economic origin but mainly due to political problems, education, financial development and countries’ demographic characteristics. Likewise, we find that national, international and global terrorism are not of same origins even they present many common roots. In the end, we show that it is possible to predict majority of attacks based on a small number of indicators measuring political risk, financial development and income inequalities.

Liquidity can be a real phenomenon for execution of the financial holding. Its risk falls in debate to impose a conditional cost on the counterparty. The time-varying liquidity is often linked to the expected fundamental value of an investment. In this work, the microblogging-based informed transaction is examined as a determinant of the liquidity-facilitating cost. Most importantly, this study investigates the economic blockade era and post-pandemic uncertainty. The sentiment indicators were found to be determinants of liquidity. These findings were consistent in the post-pandemic period. However, the investor pessimistic sentiment was a priced risk factor in liquidity during the economic blockade period. Based on the Bayesian theorem, a relativeness was reported between sentiment indicators and the liquidity-facilitating cost. The same findings were depicted in environments of the pandemic era. Nevertheless, the posterior probability indicated an occurrence of the liquidity-associated cost in response to the pessimistic sentiments during the economic blockade period. This quantification may have potential implications in terms of exploring liquidity from the microblogging perceptive.

In the behavioral domain, this study discloses the pattern between microblogging-opinionated information and yields on the investment. This phenomenon is particularly related to the political instability in the Pakistan’s economy through the multivariate techniques. Pre-political crisis, the pessimistic sentiments were priced in yields on the investment. In environments of political instability, the intensity of decline in yields was more responsive against an incline in the negative opinions. Meanwhile, the intensity of increase in returns was less responsive against an incline in the positive opinions. The findings were further supported by the Bayesian approach. Before the political instability takes place in the Pakistan’s economy, the occurrence of yields was noted in response to the bearish market period. Post-political instability, there was a higher posterior probability for occurrence of returns against the bearish market period. Conversely, a higher posterior likelihood was noted for occurrence of investment’s yields in response to the bullish market period, but this relevance was not completely probable. From the impulse response analysis, the response of returns was reported against the standard deviation shocks in the microblogging sentiment indicators. The analysis may have potential implications in terms of disclosing the investors’ behavior from a political perspective.

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) deposits across 13 African nations from 2016 to 2022, using a seven-year dataset and Ordinary Least Squares estimator. Notably, it uncovers a significant positive link between the pandemic and SMEs deposits, indicating heightened reserves amidst economic uncertainty, potentially driven by risk mitigation or government support. Associations between gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign direct investment (FDI), exchange rates, and SMEs deposits were evident, showcasing higher GDP aligning with increased deposits, while inflation and unemployment linked to reduced ones. FDI showed a positive influence, and exchange rate fluctuations notably affected SMEs deposits, especially for those in international trade. These findings emphasize policy reconsideration for crisis strategies supporting SMEs reserves during uncertainty and interventions addressing inflation, unemployment, and exchange rate risks. Future research exploring regional nuances and global comparisons could further enrich policymaking for resilient SMEs amid evolving economic landscapes.

The use of cloud computing by firms can be expected to go hand in hand with higher productivity, more innovations, and lower costs, and, therefore, should be positively related to export activities. Empirical evidence on the link between cloud computing and exports, however, is missing. This paper uses firm level data for manufacturing enterprises from the 27 member countries of the European Union taken from the Flash Eurobarometer 486 survey conducted in February – May 2020 to investigate this link. Applying standard parametric econometric models and a new machine-learning estimator, Kernel-Regularized Least Squares (KRLS), we find that firms which use cloud computing do more often export, do more often export to various destinations all over the world, and do export to more different destinations. The estimated cloud computing premium for extensive margins of exports is statistically highly significant after controlling for firm size, firm age, patents, and country. Furthermore, the size of this premium can be considered to be large. Extensive margins of exports and the use of cloud computing are positively related.

The study investigates the impact of COVID-19 on African exchange rates, employing a panel dataset over the period 2016-2022 from 13 African economies and employing pooled OLS estimator. The findings reveal a noteworthy positive correlation between COVID-19 levels and exchange rates within the region. However, this association necessitates deeper exploration due to its multifaceted implications, including economic disruptions, government interventions, global market interconnections, regional stability perceptions, and investor behavior. Economic indicators, such as GDP, inflation rate, real interest rate, and unemployment rate, significantly influence exchange rates. While GDP positively impacts exchange rates through economic growth, investor confidence, and trade strength, controlled inflation fosters investor confidence and export competitiveness, positively affecting exchange rates. Moreover, a pronounced positive impact of the real interest rate indicates economic stability, attracting investment and contributing to currency appreciation. Conversely, high unemployment negatively affects exchange rates, signaling economic weaknesses and eroding investor confidence. These findings emphasize nuanced policy responses for managing health crisis-induced economic disruptions and suggest future research directions focusing on specific country-level analyses and multifaceted factors influencing currency valuations within African economies.