Financial development and industrial structure optimization are two-wheeled engines for promoting high-quality development, but the causal identification of the two is still poorly understood. This paper addresses this research gap by comprehensively analyzing the relationship between them. Regional economic growth is a necessary condition for achieving high-quality development. Taking China as an example, this study empirically examines the role of financial development and industrial structure optimization in high-quality development using the entropy method, fixed effects, mediation effects and instrumental variable regression. The study results show that (i) financial development has actively promoted regional economic growth. (ii) The driving effect on the central and western regions is greater than that on the eastern region. (iii) There are differences in the mediating effect of industrial structure optimization and rationalization between different levels of financial development and economic growth. (iv) In addition, the mediating effect of industrial structure optimization is larger in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. (v) The mediating effect of industrial structure rationalization is not obvious in the eastern region, but has a masking effect in the central and western regions. Our findings provide new strategies for financial development and industrial structure optimization in developing countries.

Based on the empirical data of 6110 listed export companies in China from 2010 to 2019, this paper studies the impact of China's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index on the profitability of listed companies from the specific perspective of export companies, and analyzes the moderating effects of different factors on this impact. The results show that China's EPU index has a significant negative impact on the profitability of listed export companies, and the increase in R&D investment and wage returns will aggravate this negative impact. In addition, listed export enterprises with different enterprise characteristics have different responses to EPU. State-owned enterprises and enterprises located in coastal areas are relatively less negatively affected by EPU.

Banks operating within a free economic environment and with constructive regulatory frameworks can function with enhanced efficiency, augmenting their profitability. This study aimed to examine the influence of economic freedom and financial restrictions on banks' profitability within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation member nations. The study used a sample of 1453 banks, collecting panel data spanning 13 years. The System-GMM methodology was justified based on the enduring characteristics of the data and the profitability metrics. The dependent variables, namely the Net Income Margin, Return on Average Assets, and Return on Average Equity were individually examined. The research findings indicate that most economic freedom indicators, except for investment freedom, harm bank profitability. The influence of the rule of law on profitability indicators is mostly adverse, although regulatory quality within the financial system has a comparatively favorable effect on profitability. Furthermore, bank-specific performance indicators had a negative impact on profitability, except for bank size. Moreover, country-specific variables substantially impact banks' profitability, including inflation, tax, and interest rates. The presence of Islamic banking has been shown to substantially impact the profitability performance of banks within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. OIC banks' profitability is adversely impacted by the ongoing health crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic.

The recent interest rate policy decisions of the South African Reserve Bank have been criticized significantly by left-leaning political parties and civic society organisations for being anti-poor, anti-labour, and pro-capital because of their implications for household debt. Existing literature has established that interest rates and house prices are insignificant determinants of household debt dynamics in South Africa. Taking advantage of additional data for the period 2013-2022, and contrary to the previous studies, the paper maintains that house prices and the central bank policy rate play a crucial role in household debt dynamics. Applying a Markov Switching regression to quarterly data for the period 1981Q1 to 2022Q1, the paper finds that house prices and the policy rate have a significant influence on household debt dynamics. It establishes the existence of a ‘house price boom, low policy rate burden’ regime and a ‘high policy rate burden, low house price’ regime. The coexistence of the ‘house price boom’ and the ‘low policy rate’ explains the debt euphoria characterised by significant household leveraging.

Global distributions of net factor income from abroad (NFI) during 1990-2019 have witnessed that (1) the United States is the top one country accounting for 40% of surpluses of the global total, while a surge in China’s deficit with its GDP increase; (2) GDP growth in emerging economies has a price scissors with NFI deficits; (3) asymmetric NFI has covered up the severity of rich countries’ global arbitrages especially from emerging economies; (4) China’s economic power is exaggerated by the PPP-based GDP implemented by the World Bank. It concludes that (1) developing countries have paid for huge hidden cost for their emergence; (2) the statement of the United States suffering losses absolutely does not hold; (3) GDP is not a universal tool for measuring what matters. It suggests that (1) emerging economies countries should beware of the potential misleading of GDP on economic measurement and economic power comparison ; (2) GDP should be critiqued from the applicability perspective of economies’ types; (3) it is urgent to clarify some misjudgment and misleading concepts in the economic affairs surrounding the global value chain patterns; (4) the construction of national governance capacity in emerging economies should focus on “social infrastructure”, of which one of the important parts is an effective economic statistics system; (5) emerging economies should carry out the strategic layout of international economic statistics talents to enhance their soft powers.

We assess the impact of the Strategic Economic Plan on Singapore’s long-term GDP per capita. To our knowledge, we are the first to evaluate the effect of the 1991 plan on Singapore’s successful growth trajectory using methodologies aimed at causal identification. In other words, this article applies the Synthetic Control method and World Bank data from 1970 to 2018. We estimate an average increase of 6,641.71 US$ in Singapore’s GDP per capita. Results remain robust to placebo and leave-one-out tests and the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences method.

We study analytically the conflict of goals between stabilizing economic activity and public debt sustainability, for the fiscal authorities. In the short run, an active and expansionary fiscal policy, increasing public investment or reducing the labor taxation rate, is growth enhancing. However, as these short term fiscal policies also decrease government revenue and increase the public debt, budgetary and fiscal multipliers are reduced in the long run. In the framework of a potential ZLB constraint for monetary policy, an expansionary fiscal policy is thus appropriate only if long term labor and consumption taxation rates are small, and if the share of public expenditure in GDP is high. On the contrary, fiscal policy should be contractionary, in order to insure the sustainability of the long term public debt, if long term labor and consumption taxation rates are high. A contractionary fiscal policy is then also all the more appropriate as the sensitivity of government expenditure to the public debt is high, and as the labor share in the production function is high.

The digital economy industry plays a transformative role in reshaping the global production networks, the local division of production, and the integration and innovation of business forms. However, to what extent the industry enables the high-quality development and upgrading of urban economies is unclear. Based on the census data of digital economy enterprises in Hangzhou in 2008, 2013 and 2018, this paper verifies the characteristics of the digital economy industry and its enabling mechanism for high-quality urban economic development. It is found that: firstly, the digital economy industry has three main forms for the economy, namely, the sharing, scale and scope economy. Secondly, the industry has four major mechanisms to improve the quality of urban economies. That is, it can restructure the global industrial division of labor and value chains, promote the transformation of scale economy from the supply side to the demand side, enable the softening and servitization of industrial structure, and generate the scale of economies. This paper thus contributes to understanding the evolution of enterprise organizational structure and industrial competitiveness and the endogenous technological change under the digital economy.

Human factor inputs are key to promoting agricultural modernisation. Traditional economic theory suggests that improving human capital is the key to boosting agricultural productivity, but can this conclusion hold in China's dualistic economic structure? We use Chinese provincial panel data from 2000-2017 to examine the impact of rural human capital inputs on agricultural total factor productivity. We find that, on the whole, rural human capital inputs have a negative effect on agricultural total factor productivity, and that there is a "rural human capital trap". Mechanism analysis reveals that rural human capital inputs, on the one hand, cause labour loss and reduce the quality of agricultural workers, while on the other hand, they may promote the application of mechanization, which has both positive and negative effects on agricultural total factor productivity. Heterogeneity analysis finds that this negative effect is more pronounced in the central region of China because of the serious loss of rural labour. This study provides new policy insights for further improving the structure of rural education inputs and promoting human capital accumulation in agriculture.

This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.

Regulation of financial institutions has two key purposes: Solvency (prudential regulation) and consumer protection. Prudential regulation is implemented mainly by capital requirements, but governments also provide insurance for customer deposits, as a backup tool. In this article, we discuss the critical conditions for deposit insurance and capitalization to act as substitutes for each other, under cyclical economic environment. We make two assumptions. The first one is that deposit insurance is fairly priced and there is no moral hazard. The second one is that insurance creates incentives for moral hazard among insured banks, resulting in increased risk taking. We also discuss the critical conditions for deposit insurance and capitalization to be complementary under different proportions of deposit insurance.

This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the systemic risk of the fintech industry. To achieve this goal, we first estimate the evolution of system-wide systemic risk using the CatFin method. We further examine whether EPU significantly affects systemic risk. Our findings demonstrate that the systemic risk of the fintech industry is time-variant and sensitive to major crisis events. Systemic risk tends to increase after major crises, especially the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. EPU has a considerable impact on systemic risk, notably during periods of turmoil.

We quantify financial returns to backers in reward-based crowdfunding projects on Kickstarter and show that such investments provide profitable opportunities in addition to non-monetary benefits. The average unconditional annualized return is 11.5% and the average return on successful projects is 30%. Hence, backing money near the end of a campaign, when the probability of success is already high, is a profitable strategy. The most attractive is the Design category, where successful projects yield 73%, on average. Short-term projects are more profitable than long-term ones. Financial return is an important type of extrinsic motivation in reward-based crowdfunding, which has generally been neglected in academic literature. Reward-based crowdfunding outperforms other forms of crowdfunding and other common alternative investments.

Following the seminal paper on Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) by Mundell (1961) a wealth of literature has been published on the business cycles synchronisation and its main determinants. This work provides a systematic review of this research field both at country-level synchronization and regional level. The paper aims to evaluate the contribution of the related literature’s methodologies to the measurement of the business cycle and the estimation of the level of synchronization. The discussion of the collected papers is expected to substantially assist researchers, practitioners, and policy makers keen to employ themselves in the area of business cycles synchronisation.

Since 2011, the conflict in Syria left the country with a devastating energy sector and fragile economy. The residents struggle daily to live with only two hours a day of electricity. The crisis encouraged some Syrians to assemble photovoltaic (PV) panels to generate energy. Unfortunately, the geopolitical risks, the inflation, and displacement are making the situation worse. The geopolitical risks are complex and multifaceted due to the ongoing war and the involvement of various regional and international actors. In this letter, we focus on the situation in war-torn Syria, its economy, and the opportunities for renewable energy development in the country. We also give some recommendations for academics and policy makers.

China's carbon emission trading market has been formally established, but few studies have been conducted to analyze the impact of this policy on the regional urbanization level. Therefore, this paper evaluates whether the carbon trading pilot policy can enhance the regional urbanization level in China through the difference-in-differences method and analyzes the mediating role of industrial structure upgrading in this process. The results prove that the carbon trading market policy can accelerate the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in the region so that it promotes the development of regional urbanization. Moreover, the effects of the policy are concentratedly manifested in the eastern region of China.

This study estimates the impact of third-party online payment systems on trade, export, import, and Internet retailing in China. Also, the study examines the financial development mechanism via which third-party payment affects trade, export, import, and Internet retailing in China. By employing a sample of 31 provinces in China covering 2011 to 2018, the findings indicate that, third-party payment drives China’s trade (0.43%), export (0.42%), import (0.47%), and Internet retailing (0.24%). The study also finds that third-party payment complements financial development to positively affect trade, export, import, and Internet retailing in China. The study recommends policymakers promote third-party payment development in China to boost trade, export, import, and Internet retailing.

A high inflation period of seven years (1978-1985) in Israel, which turned into a hyperinflation, puzzled Israeli economists, who tried to understand its causes and mechanisms. As a result, they provided fourteen different explanations. Although all of the explanations were based on the same data, the researchers’ conclusions were either different or contradictory. This situation provides a virtual laboratory for the study of the ways and methods of economic thought; it is a classical Ceteris patribus situation. This laboratory further raises other subjects and questions. Are there principal differences between the economists' explanations? Is it possible to classify these differences? How do economic explanations for inflation differ from non-economic ones? In this article, I classified thirteen economic studies and one non-economic study into five clusters. This was the methodological tool used to inquire into the economic thought in this virtual laboratory.

The objective of this study is to explore the link between the financial sector, macroeconomic fluctuations, and sustainable energy production in South Asia. It evaluates existing research, identifies gaps, and suggests future directions. The study emphasizes the need to understand how economic activities influence the environment and how environmental factors impact economic and financial outcomes. It also examines financial market responses to understand the manifestation of economic and environmental factors, using data from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka spanning 1987 to 2022. The results show that investment in green energy is essential for developing countries. The study suggests that the relationship between the region's stock market, GDP, carbon emissions, and green energy is complex, with a negative response to domestic credit indicating potential obstacles to investment, such as policy barriers or insufficient incentives. Mixed responses highlight the need for credit directed towards sustainable projects. Variations in responses across economic indicators may indicate policy challenges or structural issues, necessitating a reassessment of government policies to incentivize sustainable investments and promote green technology adoption. These results imply that policymakers should precisely assess the environmental ramifications of economic growth and stock market activities. This presents an opportunity to craft policies that guide investments toward cleaner technologies and industries, aligning economic growth with sustainable practices. Policymakers and financial institutions should explore ways to incentivize green energy investments and promote sustainable economic growth.

The study investigates the impact of COVID-19 on African exchange rates, employing a panel dataset over the period 2016-2022 from 13 African economies and employing pooled OLS estimator. The findings reveal a noteworthy positive correlation between COVID-19 levels and exchange rates within the region. However, this association necessitates deeper exploration due to its multifaceted implications, including economic disruptions, government interventions, global market interconnections, regional stability perceptions, and investor behavior. Economic indicators, such as GDP, inflation rate, real interest rate, and unemployment rate, significantly influence exchange rates. While GDP positively impacts exchange rates through economic growth, investor confidence, and trade strength, controlled inflation fosters investor confidence and export competitiveness, positively affecting exchange rates. Moreover, a pronounced positive impact of the real interest rate indicates economic stability, attracting investment and contributing to currency appreciation. Conversely, high unemployment negatively affects exchange rates, signaling economic weaknesses and eroding investor confidence. These findings emphasize nuanced policy responses for managing health crisis-induced economic disruptions and suggest future research directions focusing on specific country-level analyses and multifaceted factors influencing currency valuations within African economies.