We analyze the annual microdata of China's 100 commercial banks from 2007 to 2018 using the mediating effect analysis method, analyze the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on the credit scale of commercial banks, and then verify the intermediary effects of the operational risks and short-term capital liquidity of commercial banks in the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the scale of commercial bank credit, separately. Moreover, we find that non-state-owned commercial banks, large-scale commercial banks, low-leverage commercial banks, and commercial banks with low profitability are more susceptible to economic policy uncertainty affecting commercial bank credit growth through short-term capital liquidity, and vice versa.

This paper examines impacts of China’s financial liberalization policy on income inequality, through three channels: financial scale, financial structure and financial efficiency, an empirical analysis based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1996 to 2013 is conducted. The results confirm the Kuznets effect between financial scale, financial structure and income inequality. As the size of the financial sector expands, the financial structure is tilted toward direct financing, and the income gap among residents will experience a "reverse U-shaped" trend that rises first and then falls. Most of China has not yet passed the turning point, and is still in the upper bound of the "inverted U-shaped" curve. Financial liberalization policies will continue to exacerbate income inequality. The impact of financial efficiency on income distribution is quite different in different regions of China. After dividing the whole China into three regions according to the degree of economic development, it is found that the financial efficiency of the eastern and western regions has a Kuznets effect on the income gap, but compared with the eastern region, more provinces and cities in the western region have entered the stage of reducing the income inequality, and the financial development has a great impact on the western region. The effects of financial development on central China are weak, and income inequality increases with financial efficiency.

This paper attempts to introduce an overlapping generations structure into Paul Krugman's "The world's smallest macroeconomic model" (Krugman (1999)) to examine the implications of fiscal policy, particularly fiscal deficits, in a framework suitable for policy analysis. In that paper, Krugman argued that under the price rigidity assumption, a shortage in the money supply leads to underemployment and recession, so increasing the money supply would eliminate underemployment and restore full employment. But how can the money supply be increased? I show that in order to restore full employment out of a recession, a fiscal deficit is needed to increase the money supply. I also show that in a growing economy, fiscal deficits are necessary to maintain full employment at constant prices or inflation. Fiscal deficits are not only effective in pulling the economy out of recession, they are even necessary for growth to continue without recession or inflation. The fiscal deficit in this paper represents the difference between government spending and government revenues. If this difference is positive, we say that the government is in deficit. Krugman's original model is a one-period static model. I intend to extend this model to a dynamic overlapping generations model.

This study simultaneously tests Wagner’s law on one hand and Keynes proposition on the other hand related both government spending and output in Ivory Coast that experiencing long run economic growth and widened deficit. That challenges the country’s fiscal sustainability. With annual data from 1980 to 2020, results show that Wagner’s law holds, the elasticity of government spending to output is greater than one. There is bidirectional causality between government size and output validating Keynesian idea that public expenditure is an exogenous factor and a policy instrument for increasing national income. Wagner law and public deficit can justify Ivorian over-indebtedness.

Cryptocurrencies have gained popularity over the past five to six years. Most recently, events like the FTX bankruptcy fueled the interest in regulation. Moreover, it is possible that the FTX event disrupting the cryptocurrency market was a factor in Silicon Valley Bank's failure. While several countries consider regulation, from soft regulation, like Japan, to more rigid standards, like the total ban in China, we study the effect of other news or events on cryptocurrency prices. This paper looks at historical closing prices for Bitcoin, the largest of the cryptocurrencies, and how prices react to various events. Then we focus on modeling the time series considering an 'event,' China's ban on cryptocurrency exchanges, using intervention analysis. We find that intervention analysis provides a reliable approach to quantifying the impact regulation may have on cryptocurrency pricing.

The low-carbon city pilot is an important policy for promoting sustainable development and addressing climate change. The level of green technological innovation is a significant driving force for China's transition to high-quality development and the realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This essay takes the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2020 as the research sample, regards the number of urban green invention patent applications as a quantifiable indicator of the level of urban green technological innovation, and takes the policy of low-carbon city pilot as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses the difference-in-differences model to test the impact of low-carbon city pilot on the level of urban green technological innovation, and to investigate the mechanism of action within. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The policy of low-carbon city pilot has an outstanding promotion effect on the level of urban technological innovation. (2) Using the mediating effect to analyze, it is found that the low-carbon city pilot policy can improve the level of urban green technological innovation through the development of green finance.

Economy has various stages which have been described as economic cycle and due to that the circulatory movement observed, some have faster cycle some have longer cycle which depends on numbers of factors and from that inflation is an important segment. Various terms have been described for inflation, in simple meaning when price of different commodities have been raised compared to previous stage due to depreciation of currency having lesser purchasing power. Perception of people towards inflation and its impact is the main crux of the study, because how the people think about technical terms is vital matter. The present study is based on primary data collected from 277 respondents through questionnaire from the Gujarat state India. The perception has been analysed from four statement have been asked in Lickert’s five scale form. The one-way ANOVA has been used to test the hypotheses and it has been found from that in first statement regarding price of commodity once increase then it will not decrease due to inflation has significant difference with place, education and age of the respondents and in rest three statement no significant differences have been observed.

I present a theoretical model and an empirical approach for jointly estimating the effectiveness of fiscal policy and the stochastic process of sovereign interest rate shocks. The theoretical model has features relevant to small open and emerging economies. Interest rate shocks affect the ability of firms to finance payroll expenses. This theoretical feature creates a propagation mechanism for interest rate shocks and affects government spending multipliers. This paper proposes a strategy for jointly estimating government spending multipliers and the interest rate shock process parameters.

The expansion of urban infrastructure is an important indicator of agglomeration and a major factor in the deterioration of the urban environment. The investment in urban infrastructure is accompanied by the sealing of ground. The implementation of effective policies to reduce the practice of sealing ground is impeded by the existence of conflicting interests and fiscal disincentives. A significant challenge is the dearth of policy-relevant information. Conventional analysis considers urban outcome indicators in proportion to population and neglects non-linear distribution patterns, thus obscuring global regularities that contain important information. The study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of urban imperviousness through the lens of urban scaling. The present study employs Germany as a case study to examine the extent to which the parameters of the scaling function differ between two types of cities. District Affiliated Cities (DACs) and Administrative City Districts (ACDs), which are afforded greater fiscal autonomy. The analysis indicates that the amount of sealed land exhibited a notable increase between 2006 and 2018 in the ACDs. Calibration of the scaling functions for cities with the actual coefficient of the DAC control estimate and a global orientation exponent (5/6) resulted in a 16% reduction of sealed ground. In conclusion, urban scaling laws offer a valuable tool for analyzing the complex dynamics of urban imperviousness and its control costs, thereby contributing to the formulation of more effective urban policies and planning.

Major economic and financial contractions usually go hand-in-hand with muted inflation. This has been true for the Great Depression, the Global Financial Crisis, as well as the Covid-19 crisis. In this paper, we theoretically highlight and discuss the evolution of instruments and approaches monetary-policy decision makers at the Federal Reserve have in lifting inflation to desired levels in times of the zero-lower bound, paying particular focus on more rigorous developments like asymmetric average inflation and temporary price-level targeting.

By introducing time to build, which creates a time-lag between government investment and the accumulation of productive capital, into an analysis of fiscal stimulus to the economy with financial frictions, we find that the effectiveness of fiscal policy is dampened. While the weakening effects of time to build become significantly weaker alongside with a higher fraction of government bonds allocated to leverage-constrained banks, which can be explained by a high correlation between time to build and financial frictions in both worsening balance sheet conditions of banks. Furthermore, the stimulus effects of public investment become stronger associated with shorter time-to-build period.

The enactment of policies that bolster new research and development (R&D) institutions stands as a pivotal strategy to catalyze urban innovation and development. Adopting a strategic lens of innovation chain management and employing the Differences-in-Differences (DID) method to scrutinize panel data from 43 Chinese cities spanning 2008 to 2019, this study probes the efficacy and underlying mechanisms of policies designed to support nascent R&D institutions in facilitating urban innovation. Empirical findings reveal that policies in support of new R&D institutions have markedly enhanced the three integral stages of the urban innovation chain: research and development, transfer, and application. Furthermore, the innovation ambiance within cities and the innovative activities of enterprises emerge as significant mediators between support policies and the output of urban innovation across these stages. A regional heterogeneity analysis unveils that the impact of support policies on the output of urban innovation diverges across regions, with a notably more pronounced effect observed in the eastern region compared to central and western regions. An objective appraisal of the policy's impact on urban innovation not only aids in delving into the profound implementation effects of policy instruments but also furnishes policy-makers with decision-making references for optimizing the utilization of support policies for new R&D institutions to advance the edification of the national innovation system.

Generating output growth by adding more inputs into the production process may not be sustainable in the long run for any economy, given the limited resources. On the other hand, if productivity growth dominates the production process, it will generate more output without excessive increase in input use. Hence, this paper examines whether the output growth in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector is excessive inputs driven or productivity driven. Productivity driven growth is measured by Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth, which is decomposed into its major components of technological progress and technical efficiency within the framework of varying coefficients stochastic frontier analysis (VSFA) using Indonesia’s annual Large and Medium Manufacturing Industries Survey data over the period 2002–2014. The measurement of the components of TFP growth not only provides more insights and better understanding of the dynamic nature of the production processes, but also has important policy implications. The mean TFP growth during the period 2002-2014 was estimated to be 4.3 per cent and was mostly contributed by technological progress experienced by firms. The policy implication is that technical efficiency could still be improved for the selected technology to reap the full benefit of increasing output from the chosen technology.

Public diplomacy is a significant factor in promoting policy communication, people-to-people bonds, and the protection of foreign assets between two nations, but there is little research on the economic worth of public diplomacy. Python was used to crawl the daily search frequency of "China", "African countries", and related terms to construct the heat index of China-Africa public diplomacy during 2011-2019, and a two-way fixed effect model was developed to examine the impact of public diplomacy on China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in Africa. The empirical results show that public diplomacy has a considerable favorable effect on China’s OFDI in Africa, and after a series of robustness tests, the basic conclusion still holds. Heterogeneity tests show the investment promotion effect of public diplomacy is more pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa and that the promotion mechanism exhibits the characteristics of poverty alleviation and risk aversion. In addition, the promotion effect of public diplomacy on China’s OFDI becomes greater as time goes on. In terms of impact mechanisms, public diplomacy may promote OFDI by enhancing financing capacity and improving national governance. The research conclusion has policy implications for promoting China-Africa public diplomacy and investment cooperation in the new era.

Many of Keynes´s ideas and concepts are proven correct in this paper. The demand side, mainly business investments, drives the economy. Business firms steer the business cycle via profit expectations and animal spirits. Injections to and withdrawals from the circular flow of income are multiplied throughout the economy in accordance with Keynes´s multiplier. A sudden and sharp rise in households´ saving rates has a detrimental effect on aggregate demand, in line with Keynes´s paradox of thrift. Finance, not saving in the S=I sense, is the necessary condition for business investments and economic growth to be realized. Keynes´s finance motive thus makes money endogenous, contradicting the textbook result that exogenous money steers aggregate demand, contradicting the mainstream loanable funds theory and putting into question the Keynesian theory of sticky prices as a condition for real growth. However, a crucial omission in Keynes´s productive writings is the lack of an accelerator tying income to investment. Some of his followers such as Paul Samuelson tried to remedy that by developing multiplier-accelerator models. The problem with them is that the accelerator lacks micro foundations, in specific disregarding business confidence. Linking macro accounting identities with empirical national accounts data for five major economies produces the finding that business firms explain more than all aggregate expenditure growth during a 25-year period. Thus, it is concluded that business confidence is the root of the business cycle. Making the accelerator account for business confidence casts new light on the perhaps most well-known Keynesian “truth”: active fiscal policy as a main force stabilizing the business cycle. With business confidence being the endogenous and ubiquitous variable driving the business cycle, it turns out that any exogenous factor has the possibility to affect it. Policy needs to be viewed as a competing factor to the factor(s) driving the cycle in the other, destabilizing direction. The more powerful those factors are (e.g., a deadly virus), the tougher it gets for policy to “win” the competition, turning business confidence around. This leads up to the paper´s main conclusion: the worse the economy, the stronger is the case for active fiscal policy, but the lesser is the chance for it to succeed.

Educational equity is the foundation of social equity, and education equalization is one of the serious issues to be solved by the government. This work considers one education equalization reform conducted by Suzhou Industrial Park of China, namely, the comprehensive "five to nine" (CFTN) housing purchase admission qualification adjustment policy, as an example and uses the resold housing transaction data to identify the effect of the equalization policy by the difference-in-differences (DID) method. Based on this natural experiment, the quantitative assessment results show that (1) the CFTN policy has a significantly positive effect on housing prices in nine-year consistent (NYC) school districts that belong to high-quality school districts; (2) the CFTN policy has no significant effect on housing prices in non-NYC consistent school districts that belong to ordinary school districts. These results uncover that the one-size-fits-all CFTN policy can only obtain significant housing price equilibrium effects in school districts above a certain level of education quality. For regions with backward education levels, the policy is ineffective. For these regions, continuously increasing high-quality educational resources and increasing educational service levels are essential solutions to reduce educational inequality.

This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.

Based on the empirical data of 6110 listed export companies in China from 2010 to 2019, this paper studies the impact of China's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index on the profitability of listed companies from the specific perspective of export companies, and analyzes the moderating effects of different factors on this impact. The results show that China's EPU index has a significant negative impact on the profitability of listed export companies, and the increase in R&D investment and wage returns will aggravate this negative impact. In addition, listed export enterprises with different enterprise characteristics have different responses to EPU. State-owned enterprises and enterprises located in coastal areas are relatively less negatively affected by EPU.

It's critical for environmental governance to understand the effectiveness of policy interventions as well as their working mechanisms. This paper focuses on the vehicle license plate-based management, a sort of policy intervention understudied in environmental governance literature. Specifically, we study the automobile purchase restriction (APR), a major method of license management to address urban air pollution and traffic congestion recently launched by the authorities of China. However, limited studies have quantified the environmental impact of such purchase restriction. Based on the panel data of PM2.5 concentration in 330 cities in China during 1998-2016, this study aims to explore the causal impact of Beijing automobile purchase restriction on air quality, using the regression control method and high-dimensional data regression of machine learning. The average PM2.5 concentration did not decrease but increased because of the purchase restriction. Over time, the deterioration effect on urban air quality will not alleviate. Besides, the restriction cannot enhance urban air quality by decreasing the increase of PM2.5. Despite excluding the impact of driving restriction, the purchase restriction markedly aggravate urban air quality. This paper has some policy implications for policymakers on the impact of urban vehicle license management with caution. Hence, it is essential to promote urban economy, production, and lifestyle to attain the win-win goal of air pollution control and urban development.

The rise of privately issued digital currencies, which primarily serve as alternative investment assets poses a challenge to the traditional financial instruments traded in the financial market. This study examines the dynamic relationship between the major privately issued digital currency (Bitcoin) and two financial market securities in Nigeria. The paper employed Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and presents three relevant findings. First, the impulse response function indicates the absence of a significant response of the Nigerian financial market to shocks emanating from the Bitcoin market, implying lower connectedness between the two markets. Secondly, the outcome of the variance decomposition reveals a lower contribution of Bitcoin to changes in stock prices and treasury bills, however, stock prices and treasury bills contributed higher impact to each other compared to the contribution of Bitcoin. Thirdly, a weak bi-directional causality between the Bitcoin and treasury bills was observed and a uni-directional causality running from treasury bills and stocks, implying the existence of portfolio rebalancing from the fixed income to the equities market. Despite the weak connection between digital currency and the financial market, the paper recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Securities and Exchange Commission should maintain monitoring the development of crypto exchanges and continue reviewing the existing policy restricting cryptocurrency transactions through banks to avoid its unsavoury effects.