The answer to how to stop economic growth must be political rather than economic. Economic growth made by men has an impetus which can only be stopped by a deliberate choice. It takes national and international decisions to stop it. In order to organize a moratorium on economic growth (which eventually must lead to a stop on growth) I suggest to create blocks of nations in the world. The European Union can function as a model for such a block. The E.U. is on its way of becoming a supra-national government which was created to ensure a level playing field for its members. Now it is meant to create economic growth for its members, in the future its administration should be used to stop it. Blocks should agree on the targets to reach a durable economy. Globally or between certain more advanced blocks a date should be set to stop economic growth after that date. Each block should implement the goals to reach a durable economy and prevent products reaching its market that violate the goals of durability. Blocks in developing countries cannot be expected to stop economic growth. They need that growth for two reasons. Eventually they must reach the level of existence in the more advanced block and secondly they must have the time to improve the standard for durability of their products. They need the aid of the developed countries to reach a higher but also more durable level of production, but this aid comes with a quid pro quo, In the meantime they must do their utmost to stop wars in their regions and conduct a responsible population-policy to reduce the growth of their population and let it reduce on the long term.

In the statistical standard of population aging adopted by the United Nations in 1956, the UN only focused on age, which is no longer a good statistical indicator in the context of deepening global population aging. To some extent, population aging is also the embodiment of social progress. This paper suggests improving the existing statistical standards of population aging to better adapt to the reality of social development.

Population, as a fundamental element in urban development, often reflects a city's economic development pattern through its spatial distribution and dynamic changes. Studying population spatial distribution is pivotal for bolstering the economic activity capacity in urban agglomerations and guiding regional economic health. Using the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration as a case study, this paper analyzes its overall spatial structure and the spatiotemporal evolution of population at the district and county levels. This analysis utilizes population density, population redistribution index, and population geographic concentration as key indices. Additionally, a spatial econometric model is constructed to assess the impact of economic, social, and environmental factors on population spatial patterns. Findings reveal several key points: (1) Furong District serves as the primary central area, boasting a population geographic concentration of 25.1% in 2021. Tianxin District, Kaifu District, Yuhua District, Shifeng District, Yuelu District, and Hetang District constitute the secondary central areas, while Yutang District, Tianyuan District, Lusong District, Yuhu District, Wangcheng District, and Changsha County form the tertiary level areas. (2) Population density within the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration gradually decreases from Furong District outward. The first central area and sub-central areas experience increasing population density, highlighting a polarization trend in the population distribution. (3) The overall Moran's index for the spatial distribution of population in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is significantly positive, indicating a strong spatial autocorrelation and a deepening spatial agglomeration of population distribution. (4) Per capita disposable income, financial expenditure, and education level positively influence the geographical concentration of population in the urban agglomeration, while GDP per capita, road area per capita, and environmental quality exert a negative impact. Notably, the most influential factors shaping population spatial distribution are GDP per capita, disposable income per capita, and air quality.

Understanding the economic trends and demographic dynamics of a country is crucial for policymakers and researchers to formulate effective strategies and policies. This study aims to examine the GDP trends and aging index dynamics in Portugal from 2011 to 2021, with a focus on regional disparities and their implications for demographic challenges. The findings highlight the relationship between regional GDP and the aging index, indicating that regions with higher GDP values tend to have a relatively younger population, while regions with lower GDP values have a relatively older population. The study contributes to the existing literature on population aging by providing insights into the demographic, economic, and social implications of an aging society. It provides valuable insights into the demographic, economic, and social implications of population aging in Portugal. The findings contribute to the existing literature and can inform policymakers and stakeholders in developing targeted strategies and policies to address the specific challenges faced by each region.

The digital transformation provides an opportunity for the development of a green and low-carbon economy. This study used panel data collected from 30 Chinese provinces between 2011 and 2018, and assessed the impact of digitization (Dig) on environmental efficiency (EE). Quantile regression is employed to scrutinize the evolution of the marginal effect. From the perspectives of population and institutional factors, this study empirically investigates nonlinear relationships and potential mechanisms using Hansen threshold and mediation models. The findings reveal several key insights. Overall, levels of digitization and environmental efficiency (EE) are increasing with regional dispersion expansion, indicating a “polarization” characteristic. The impact of digitization on EE exhibits noticeable stage and regional heterogeneity. Analysis of population factors reveals that population structure, population size, and human capital trigger a sharp “marginal increase” of positive effects with single thresholds of 0.8155, 7.2284, and 11.0497, respectively. Analysis of institutional factors highlights the significance of fiscal policy quality (tax proportion), education expenditure, and tax system structure as important intermediaries. Finally, this paper presents corresponding policy implications.

This paper attempts to introduce an overlapping generations structure into Paul Krugman's "The world's smallest macroeconomic model" (Krugman (1999)) to examine the implications of fiscal policy, particularly fiscal deficits, in a framework suitable for policy analysis. In that paper, Krugman argued that under the price rigidity assumption, a shortage in the money supply leads to underemployment and recession, so increasing the money supply would eliminate underemployment and restore full employment. But how can the money supply be increased? I show that in order to restore full employment out of a recession, a fiscal deficit is needed to increase the money supply. I also show that in a growing economy, fiscal deficits are necessary to maintain full employment at constant prices or inflation. Fiscal deficits are not only effective in pulling the economy out of recession, they are even necessary for growth to continue without recession or inflation. The fiscal deficit in this paper represents the difference between government spending and government revenues. If this difference is positive, we say that the government is in deficit. Krugman's original model is a one-period static model. I intend to extend this model to a dynamic overlapping generations model.

In his "The World’s smallest macroeconomic model” (Krugman (1999)), Paul Krugman argued that under the assumption of price rigidity, a shortage of money supply leads to underemployment or recession, so increasing money supply can eliminate underemployment and restore full employment. But, how do we increase the money supply? I will show that we need a government deficit to increase the money supply in order to restore full employment from recession. Also, I will show that in a growing economy, if people hold money, a government deficit is necessary to maintain full employment under constant price or inflation. A government deficit is not only effective in pulling the economy out of recession, it is even necessary for continued growth without inviting either recession or inflation. The government deficit in this paper represents the difference between government expenditures and government revenues. When the difference is positive, we say that the government has a deficit. This paper seeks to explore theoretically and normatively the role of government deficits in achieving and maintaining full employment in a growing economy without causing inflation, using a very simple model by Krugman.

Income and population growth are key determinants of housing demand, while land use regulations are designed to affect housing supply. Previous studies of housing price determinants focus either on specific regulations in particular cities/regions, or on selective subsets of major cities and regulations. This study examines the impact of land use regulations on housing prices from 1989 to 2006 in an unusually large sample of 250 major US cities. Aside from factors that are commonly associated with housing demand (income, population growth and density), housing prices are found to be associated with local cost-increasing land use regulations (approval delays) and with statewide regulations. Since statewide regulations factor prominently into the results, specific examples of the impact of different types of land use regulations are provided for 5 cities in the state of Washington. The estimated increase in housing prices associated with regulations is, on average (over 250 cities), substantially larger than the effects of income and population growth. While the estimated dollar costs associated with regulations may be sizable at times, the results are remarkably consistent with previous studies that were based on smaller cross sections.

Electricity price volatility in developing economies, particularly Nigeria, presents a significant challenge to sustainable development. In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic drivers of electricity prices (ELP) in Nigeria based on annual data spanning 1980-2022 and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure. Our model estimates the long-run and short-run impacts of population growth (PG), economic growth (GDP), crude oil price (COPR), and electricity consumption (ELC) on electricity prices (ELP). The empirical findings reveal a positive and long-run effect of PG on ELP, indicating that rising demand from a growing population increases electricity prices. In the short-run, ELC surprisingly co-moved with ELP, which may be attributable to price-sensitive demand within specific consumer segments or periods. Furthermore, GDP and COPR exert positive effects on ELP, indicating that economic growth drives energy consumption and prices, and the cost-driven impact of fossil fuel dependence in electricity generation. These findings shed light on the complex interplay of demographic, economic, and energy market-related forces driving electricity prices in Nigeria. Therefore, the paper proposes some policy suggestions based on the empirical findings.

Generating output growth by adding more inputs into the production process may not be sustainable in the long run for any economy, given the limited resources. On the other hand, if productivity growth dominates the production process, it will generate more output without excessive increase in input use. Hence, this paper examines whether the output growth in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector is excessive inputs driven or productivity driven. Productivity driven growth is measured by Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth, which is decomposed into its major components of technological progress and technical efficiency within the framework of varying coefficients stochastic frontier analysis (VSFA) using Indonesia’s annual Large and Medium Manufacturing Industries Survey data over the period 2002–2014. The measurement of the components of TFP growth not only provides more insights and better understanding of the dynamic nature of the production processes, but also has important policy implications. The mean TFP growth during the period 2002-2014 was estimated to be 4.3 per cent and was mostly contributed by technological progress experienced by firms. The policy implication is that technical efficiency could still be improved for the selected technology to reap the full benefit of increasing output from the chosen technology.

This paper aims to study and quantify the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth along with other variables in Tunisia. For that purpose, we estimate the relationship between GDP, agricultural exports, other exports, and imports by applying the ARDL approach under the period 1990-2020. The results show a negative and insignificant impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in the long and short run. Other exports negatively and significantly impact economic growth, while imports are found to have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. The findings have economic implications for sectors and activities that should be promoted to accelerate economic growth.

The study analyses the long growth rate period contribution to human development in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1996 to 2019 introducing time and institutional indicators effects analyses. Time and institutional effects both greatly improve model's diagnostics statistics. Time effects reduce growth variable coefficient and its significance, but not institutional effects. Combined effects inhibit growth contribution to human development. It appears essential to increase the resiliency of growth and the efficiency of government institutions.

Keeping in view the concept of agglomeration economies and the New Economic Geography (NEG) angle, this paper makes an attempt to examine the rural to urban population movement at the district level in India. The findings do not favour a strong positive association between levels of urbanization and migration rates.  However, there exists a cluster of districts which are able to attract migrants on a large scale in spite of being already urbanized. The work participation rate, share of services and construction work, and literacy rate all form parts of this positive nexus, indicating that opportunities exist with increased levels of urbanization which in turn prompt people to migrate. The positive spill-over effects of higher levels of urbanization are not limited to the urban spaces only as the adjoining rural areas also seem to have undergone   a significant transformation. The land use pattern and activities are changing and some of the developmental impact is evident. However, the regional variations in this respect are evident. There are sharp differences in the relationship between urbanization level and migration rates across regions. The nature of urbanization and its determinants and the outcome variables of urbanization and migration also unravel regional variations. Besides, there are many districts with higher levels of urbanization; yet, they are not able to attract migrants at a rapid pace. New investment opportunities can be created in these spaces to reduce the cost of growth and make employment generation process more effective, facilitating the rural population to take the benefits of agglomeration economies.

This study delves into the complex relationship between China's international trade and economic growth, specifically focusing on emission intensity and its environmental ramifications within the context of energy efficiency. The primary objective is to provide a comprehensive understanding of how China's international trade dynamics influence economic growth, emphasizing emission intensity and employing a model that considers the nonlinear impact of trade on output. Through this model, structural breakpoints are identified, revealing distinct outcomes for China amidst positive and negative shocks from 1972 to 2021. The study uncovers the dual nature of the energy sector, acting both as a source of environmental degradation and a potential avenue for positive change through increased efficiency. Complex interplays among economic activities, inflation, and investment on carbon intensity are revealed. Additionally, the varying effects of export volume on carbon emissions intensity across lag thresholds underscore the significance of global trade dynamics for environmental sustainability. The study concludes by emphasizing the importance of balancing economic prosperity with environmental responsibility, advocating for carefully balanced policies that foster sustainable growth. Recommendations include considering the dual nature of the energy sector and implementing policies promoting increased efficiency. Policymakers are urged to adopt growth models prioritizing environmental responsibility, balancing economic activities, inflation, and investment to mitigate carbon intensity while acknowledging the diverse effects of global trade dynamics on environmental sustainability.

Technological advancements in the last few decades have created energy and cost-efficient power plants, but it is not a prominent feature in the electricity supply-chain. While many long-term and short-term energy alternatives are available, Pakistan still has a significant number of people who do not have access to electricity; as there are many areas that are neither connected to the national grid nor the provincial grids. This paper aims to find the reasons behind the energy crisis in Pakistan, keeping Islamabad as the focus of study, and to find the effect of use of renewable resources on the reduction of shortage of electricity. We will be focusing on the facts that how energy crisis has been affecting the economic growth of the country.  Our data collection will be based on primary sources and secondary sources along with which we will be conducting pilot study to check the feasibility of using the solar energy as an alternative form of electricity.

This study simultaneously tests Wagner’s law on one hand and Keynes proposition on the other hand related both government spending and output in Ivory Coast that experiencing long run economic growth and widened deficit. That challenges the country’s fiscal sustainability. With annual data from 1980 to 2020, results show that Wagner’s law holds, the elasticity of government spending to output is greater than one. There is bidirectional causality between government size and output validating Keynesian idea that public expenditure is an exogenous factor and a policy instrument for increasing national income. Wagner law and public deficit can justify Ivorian over-indebtedness.

Financial development and industrial structure optimization are two-wheeled engines for promoting high-quality development, but the causal identification of the two is still poorly understood. This paper addresses this research gap by comprehensively analyzing the relationship between them. Regional economic growth is a necessary condition for achieving high-quality development. Taking China as an example, this study empirically examines the role of financial development and industrial structure optimization in high-quality development using the entropy method, fixed effects, mediation effects and instrumental variable regression. The study results show that (i) financial development has actively promoted regional economic growth. (ii) The driving effect on the central and western regions is greater than that on the eastern region. (iii) There are differences in the mediating effect of industrial structure optimization and rationalization between different levels of financial development and economic growth. (iv) In addition, the mediating effect of industrial structure optimization is larger in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. (v) The mediating effect of industrial structure rationalization is not obvious in the eastern region, but has a masking effect in the central and western regions. Our findings provide new strategies for financial development and industrial structure optimization in developing countries.

This paper investigates the degree of inflation persistence across regions in Portugal by analyzing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rates for NUTS II regions. The study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to determine whether the CPI data for Portugal is stationary or non-stationary. The results of the ADF test reveal that the IPC data for Portugal is non-stationary, indicating that inflation exhibits persistence in the long run. The study further assesses the persistence of inflation by estimating an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for each region. The Ljung-Box test is used to test for autocorrelation in the time series data, and the Hurst exponent is calculated to evaluate the presence of long-term memory in the time series data. The study finds that there is significant autocorrelation in the time series data for all regions, supporting the presence of persistence in inflation at the regional level in Portugal. The Hurst exponent also shows that the time series data for each region exhibits a high degree of persistence in inflation. Finally, the study applies the ARIMA model to each CPI division's data and uses the Ljung-Box test to test for autocorrelation in the time series data. The results show that some CPI divisions exhibited higher levels of persistence compared to others. For example, the "Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels" division exhibited high persistence, while the "Communication" division exhibited low persistence. This study contributes to the existing literature by exploring regional inflation persistence in Portugal and its implications for policymaking. The results provide insights into the inflation persistence patterns across regional levels in Portugal, by emphasizing the need to consider regional differences in inflation dynamics when formulating effective policy interventions. Understanding the persistence of inflation is crucial for policymakers to ensure price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is widely viewed as a key driving force behind China’s exceptional growth performance in the last four decades. This paper investigates several questions posed by China’s success in capturing gains from FDI. What explains that success? Can other countries replicate it, or is it unique to China? What lessons are from China for other countries? China indeed has advantages in attracting FDI such as huge market and cheap labor, the well-designed policy and strategy, however, seem to play more important role in the successful story. Our empirical estimates support on four hypotheses: FDI and GDP growth in China positively interact each other; FDI is helpful to China’s technological progress, FDI promotes China’s industrial development, and FDI stimulates China’s manufactured exports.

Motivated by the Blackorby-Schworm (1993) observation that market outcomes may differ from those originating in market-actor optimization, this paper claims that the number of banks in the market is larger than the number justified by bank profit maximization alone or in combination with bank depositor welfare maximization. This claim is made within the context of bilateral monopoly banks and intertemporal utility maximization by bank depositors. The basic policy implication towards bank population rationalization is a minimization of the deviation away from the optimal interest rate margin at every stage of the business cycle. It is meant to be an acyclical policy though the target of optimal bank population is attainable by active countercyclical policy as well. The nature of this policy issue makes the use of macroprudential measures imperative, jointly perhaps with a fiscal-monetary policy mix. A dynamic version of the model in a Cournot environment is akin to the modeling of Minsky's hypothesis of financial fragility.