This paper estimates panel vector autoregressions to analyze the endogenous connection between COVID-19 and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Using weekly, US state-level data, the study finds evidence of a significant positive effect of NCD-related mortality on deaths due to COVID-19. I find this effect to be higher for males than females. Results are robust to several sensitivity checks, so large deviations are unexpected.

This paper evaluates the use of macro-level insurance to finance post-disaster recovery and reinstatement by investigating the case of the National Disaster Insurance policy implemented by Sri Lanka. The national scheme provided cover for all properties in the country against hazards such as flooding and provided compensation for those affected. Analysis of secondary data obtained from the organisations that managed the scheme showed that the scheme has delivered a much higher return compared to the total insurance premium paid, suggesting that the scheme has delivered a net positive benefit compared to the cost of the premium and can be considered a viable option. However, the existing secondary data did not reveal the values of other costs and indirect benefits associated with the scheme to compute a meaningful benefit-to-cost ratio. Further rigorous, evidence-based cost-benefit analysis is required to assess the cost-effectiveness of a scheme of this nature. A cost-benefit analysis approach based on an analytical hierarchy process is proposed as a possible solution to assess the cost-effectiveness of the scheme, which could be used by government organisations as an alternative, where analytical and research resources may be limited, to evaluate a range of disaster recovery financing options using stakeholder opinion.

The present paper empirically examines the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, which posits an inverted U-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth, in Egypt, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey for the period 1970-2020. The EKC validity is highly debated due to varying results across countries. This study is significant to addresses this controversy by estimating the EKC's robustness while considering the influence of financial development, globalization, and government expenditure. We employ two cointegration techniques, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM), also considering potential structural breaks in the data. Out key findings indicate that the EKC hypothesis is supported in India, Pakistan, and Turkey, with carbon emissions eventually declining after reaching a peak. The hypothesis is not supported in Egypt and Thailand, where emissions rise monotonically with economic growth. In Mexico, the results are mixed, with ARDL suggesting a U-shaped relationship and VECM supporting the EKC. From our empirical analysis of the EKC hypothesis, we derive the following policy implications: 1) countries should adopt comprehensive policy strategies that integrate these goals and fully consider the long-term environmental and societal impacts of their decisions; 2) countries should invest heavily in research and development to accelerate the creation of new technologies that can effectively reduce carbon emissions; and 3) countries must actively raise awareness about the environmental repercussions of economic growth.

In his 1922 review for Cambridge Magazine of Keynes's A Treatise on Probability, and again in his 1926 review "Truth and Probability" (published in 1931 and republished in Kyburg and Smokler's 1980 edition), Ramsey provided examples critiquing Keynes's logical theory of probability. However, these examples do not disprove Keynes's theory as all of them are flawed. The flaws arise because all the pairs of propositions that Ramsey used to substantiate his criticisms are irrelevant to each other. Such irrelevant propositions are explicitly excluded from Keynes's theory in pages 4-6 of his A Treatise on Probability. This paper highlights that Ramsey's examples, which involve irrelevant propositions, do not disprove Keynes's Boolean, relational logic. The only other defense of Keynes's theory, put forth by Watt in 1989, was found to be deficient by Brady in 2022.

Metadherin (MTDH), also known as LYRIC or AEG-1, is an oncogene that enhances tumor progression, metastasis, drug resistance, and immune escape in various cancers by modulating multiple oncogenic pathways, including NF-κB, PI3K/AKT, Wnt/β-catenin, MAPK, and AMPK. Due to the unknown of the complete structure of MTDH, the deep mechanisms of MTDH and selective inhibitors targeting MTDH remain to be explored. The Protein-Protein interaction (PPI) with the Staphylococcal nuclease domain containing 1 (SND1) is a crucial mechanism underlying the function of MTDH. Current studies have demonstrated that inhibitors, including antisense oligonucleotides, peptides, and small molecules targeting MTDH or MTDH-SND1 interactions, provide novel strategies to inhibit the oncogenetic effects of MTDH. This review summarizes and discusses the structure, function, and regulation of MTDH in cancers, providing the potential therapeutic perspectives of MTDH or MTDH-SND1 PPI for drug discovery.

Part of the present inflation is caused by the breakdown of globalization, in particular supply chains, part is caused by the Corona Pandemic, in particular lockdowns, part is caused by the Ukrainian War, part is caused by European sanctions, and part – and not the smallest one – is caused by the European Central Bank’s printing money by hook or by crook in the past and in the presence. This paper attributes inflation decisively to the overwhelming money creation by the European Central Bank.

Bank deposit is closely related to systemic risks. In addition, considering that resident deposits in China have significant seasonal characteristics, this paper focuses on which component of deposits drives the systemic risk volatility, that is, it can supplement the existing forecast information. We use X-13ARIMA-SEATS to decompose deposit into three subsequences. The research findings show that the forecast effect of subsequence models is better than that of benchmark series. Most importantly, the model with trend component has the best forecast performance.

Technological advancements in the last few decades have created energy and cost-efficient power plants, but it is not a prominent feature in the electricity supply-chain. While many long-term and short-term energy alternatives are available, Pakistan still has a significant number of people who do not have access to electricity; as there are many areas that are neither connected to the national grid nor the provincial grids. This paper aims to find the reasons behind the energy crisis in Pakistan, keeping Islamabad as the focus of study, and to find the effect of use of renewable resources on the reduction of shortage of electricity. We will be focusing on the facts that how energy crisis has been affecting the economic growth of the country.  Our data collection will be based on primary sources and secondary sources along with which we will be conducting pilot study to check the feasibility of using the solar energy as an alternative form of electricity.

The answer to how to stop economic growth must be political rather than economic. Economic growth made by men has an impetus which can only be stopped by a deliberate choice. It takes national and international decisions to stop it. In order to organize a moratorium on economic growth (which eventually must lead to a stop on growth) I suggest to create blocks of nations in the world. The European Union can function as a model for such a block. The E.U. is on its way of becoming a supra-national government which was created to ensure a level playing field for its members. Now it is meant to create economic growth for its members, in the future its administration should be used to stop it. Blocks should agree on the targets to reach a durable economy. Globally or between certain more advanced blocks a date should be set to stop economic growth after that date. Each block should implement the goals to reach a durable economy and prevent products reaching its market that violate the goals of durability. Blocks in developing countries cannot be expected to stop economic growth. They need that growth for two reasons. Eventually they must reach the level of existence in the more advanced block and secondly they must have the time to improve the standard for durability of their products. They need the aid of the developed countries to reach a higher but also more durable level of production, but this aid comes with a quid pro quo, In the meantime they must do their utmost to stop wars in their regions and conduct a responsible population-policy to reduce the growth of their population and let it reduce on the long term.

This paper examines the link between informality and corruption, two interlinked phenomena that have negative impacts on economic development. The paper presents a neoclassical model simulation that illustrates how informality can drive corruption in the economy, emphasizing the incentives for corruption in an economy with informal and formal sectors. The model provides insights into the mechanisms that promote corruption and how policymakers can reduce it through formalisation. The paper reviews the existing literature on informality and corruption, highlighting the empirical evidence and theoretical models that support the relationship between the two. The research finds that countries with larger informal sectors tend to have higher levels of corruption. The study contributes to the ongoing debate on how to reduce corruption and promote formalisation, which are crucial for sustainable economic growth.

Regulation of financial institutions has two key purposes: Solvency (prudential regulation) and consumer protection. Prudential regulation is implemented mainly by capital requirements, but governments also provide insurance for customer deposits, as a backup tool. In this article, we discuss the critical conditions for deposit insurance and capitalization to act as substitutes for each other, under cyclical economic environment. We make two assumptions. The first one is that deposit insurance is fairly priced and there is no moral hazard. The second one is that insurance creates incentives for moral hazard among insured banks, resulting in increased risk taking. We also discuss the critical conditions for deposit insurance and capitalization to be complementary under different proportions of deposit insurance.

Banks are at the core of economic functioning in various countries and are the cause of their development in various fields. In a changing environment, they must deal with certain risks and maintain financial stability as the ultimate objective. The primary objective of this study is to examine the correlation between credit risk and bank stability within the Tunisian banking sector, with a specific focus on understanding the moderating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve this, we employ several econometric techniques, including panel unit root and cointegration tests, panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our empirical analysis relies on a panel dataset that encompasses a comprehensive sample of 8 Tunisian banks over 2000-2020. The results of our analysis unveil a significant negative relationship between credit risk and bank stability, indicating that higher levels of credit risk exert a detrimental effect on the overall stability of Tunisian banks. Furthermore, our study highlights that this adverse impact is further exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that the pandemic acts as a moderator. The findings of this study hold substantial implications for policymakers, regulators, and bank managers in Tunisia. They emphasize the critical importance of implementing robust risk management practices to mitigate credit risk and bolster bank stability. Additionally, the research underscores the need to consider the unique challenges introduced by external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, when assessing the overall stability of the banking system.

Because of the complexity of indirect financial intermediary services (FISIM) accounting, the traditional price index deflation method can no longer meet its accounting needs. The manual of price and volume measurement suggests that the stock deflation method and output index method should be used to calculate the volume of FISIM. Comparing the two accounting frameworks, it can be found that the key to the implementation of the stock deflation method is to set a scientific and reasonable deflation index from two aspects of service price and the service quantity, while the key of the output index method is the selection of the output index and the determination of weight. This paper compares the application cases of stock deflation method and output index method in practice, summarizes the similarities, differences, advantages and disadvantages of each case in index construction, index selection and weight determination, and further provides a reference for China FISIM volume accounting.

This paper describes two novel approaches to cost estimation of manufactured products where a data set of similar products have known manufactured costs. The methods use the notion of piecewise functions and are (1) clustering and (2) splines. Cost drivers are typically a mixture of categorical and numeric data which complicates cost estimation. Both clustering and splines approaches can accommodate this. Through four case studies, we compare our approaches with the often-used regression models. Our results show that clustering especially offers promise in improving the accuracy of cost estimation. While clustering and splines are slightly more complex to develop from both a user and a computational perspective, our approaches are packaged in an open-source software. This paper is the first known to adapt and apply these two well-known mathematical approaches to manufacturing cost estimation.

This paper aims to study and quantify the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth along with other variables in Tunisia. For that purpose, we estimate the relationship between GDP, agricultural exports, other exports, and imports by applying the ARDL approach under the period 1990-2020. The results show a negative and insignificant impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in the long and short run. Other exports negatively and significantly impact economic growth, while imports are found to have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. The findings have economic implications for sectors and activities that should be promoted to accelerate economic growth.

Non-labor income is a crucial factor influencing time allocation, and prior studies have primarily concentrated on the linear association between non-labor income and labor hours. Utilizing micro-survey data from the CFPS in 2018 and 2020 and employing the panel threshold model, this paper empirically identifies a double threshold with the wage rate as the threshold variable. This finding reveals a non-linear relationship between non-labor income and labor hours. The two thresholds categorize the relationship into three intervals. In the first interval, non-labor income significantly promotes labor hours, while in the second and third intervals, non-labor income significantly decreases labor hours, exhibiting slightly varying degrees of influence. In general, the relationship between non-labor income and labor hours demonstrates an irregular inverted U-shaped pattern. Upon dividing the workers in the sample into three groups based on the two thresholds, it is observed that wage rates exhibit a positive correlation with non-labor income.

Background: Bladder cancer (BLCA), particularly invasive BLCA, has become a medical burden worldwide as it is associated with recurrence and easy metastasis. There are specific differences in the expression of various miRNAs in tumor and normal tissues. Hence, miRNAs can be used as biomarkers for tumor diagnosis and prognostic evaluation. The current study aimed to predict the downstream target genes of BLCA-related miRNAs and explore their association with immune infiltration. Method: Data on BLCA-related mRNA and miRNA expression levels were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Correlation analysis and Cox regression analysis were performed to validate the miRNA risk model. The infiltration of various immune cells should be compared to determine the distinct differences between the immunological microenvironment of the two risk groups. Results: A predictive framework of BLCA was established using the expression levels of two miRNAs. Cox regression analysis showed that the low-risk group had a better prognosis. Then, the target genes of miRNA were predicted, and the target genes were analyzed using Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes. Moreover, variations in immune cells and functions between the high- and low-risk groups were assessed. Conclusion: The prognostic features composed of two associated miRNAs (MIR-25, MIR-548AN) may help predict the overall survival of BLCA.

Financial development and industrial structure optimization are two-wheeled engines for promoting high-quality development, but the causal identification of the two is still poorly understood. This paper addresses this research gap by comprehensively analyzing the relationship between them. Regional economic growth is a necessary condition for achieving high-quality development. Taking China as an example, this study empirically examines the role of financial development and industrial structure optimization in high-quality development using the entropy method, fixed effects, mediation effects and instrumental variable regression. The study results show that (i) financial development has actively promoted regional economic growth. (ii) The driving effect on the central and western regions is greater than that on the eastern region. (iii) There are differences in the mediating effect of industrial structure optimization and rationalization between different levels of financial development and economic growth. (iv) In addition, the mediating effect of industrial structure optimization is larger in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. (v) The mediating effect of industrial structure rationalization is not obvious in the eastern region, but has a masking effect in the central and western regions. Our findings provide new strategies for financial development and industrial structure optimization in developing countries.

The development of digital economy is becoming an important path to promote the kinetic energy of China's tax revenue development. Based on the panel data from 2011 to 2018, this paper uses Gini coefficient to analyze the regional differences of China's digital economy, and uses fixed effect model, spatial Durbin model, multi-period double difference model and other empirical methods to examine the tax effects of digital economy development. The results show that the regional disparity is the main reason for the regional disparity of digital economy development in China. The development of digital economy directly increases the tax amount of local digital industry, and at the same time it also radiates and drives the increase of local total tax revenue; The tax effect of digital economy has a negative spatial spillover, showing a "siphon effect" to neighboring areas; Mechanism analysis shows that the development of digital economy mainly promotes the increase of local tax revenue through growth effect.

The recent interest rate policy decisions of the South African Reserve Bank have been criticized significantly by left-leaning political parties and civic society organisations for being anti-poor, anti-labour, and pro-capital because of their implications for household debt. Existing literature has established that interest rates and house prices are insignificant determinants of household debt dynamics in South Africa. Taking advantage of additional data for the period 2013-2022, and contrary to the previous studies, the paper maintains that house prices and the central bank policy rate play a crucial role in household debt dynamics. Applying a Markov Switching regression to quarterly data for the period 1981Q1 to 2022Q1, the paper finds that house prices and the policy rate have a significant influence on household debt dynamics. It establishes the existence of a ‘house price boom, low policy rate burden’ regime and a ‘high policy rate burden, low house price’ regime. The coexistence of the ‘house price boom’ and the ‘low policy rate’ explains the debt euphoria characterised by significant household leveraging.