Green-biased technological progress takes into account the influence of energy input and pollution emissions, which is of great significance to China's green development. This paper decomposes technological progress into two categories: green input-biased technological progress (IBTC) and green output-biased technological progress (OBTC), using the Slacks-based measure integrating (SBM) model. The factor bias in technological progress is determined based on data from 34 industries in China from 2000 to 2015. The results show that green-biased technological progress exists significantly in the industry, and most of it promotes the growth of green total factor productivity. IBTC first tends to consume energy to pursue capital between capital input and energy input, while it tends to save energy after the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Between labor input and energy input, it is biased towards saving labor and consuming resources. OBTC is biased towards promoting industrial growth and curbing pollution emissions. Medium and light-polluting industries are biased toward promoting industrial growth and curbing pollution emissions, while heavy-polluting industries are biased towards emitting more pollution.

The objectives and tasks of the European Central Bank (ECB) are defined in Articles 2 and 3 of Protocol (No 4) on the Statute of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) and of the European Central Bank (ECB). While in Article 3,1° of this Protocol other tasks are mentioned, the prime objective of the ESCB and therefore of the ECB, is price stability. This concept was originally specified by the Executive Board of the ECB as an annual increase of less than 2% in the inflation rate over the medium term, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area. This paper examines to what extent the ECB has been effective in realizing price stability over the period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022. Price stability is important for economic agents. It allows them to plan their savings, spending and investment eventually resulting in sustained economic growth.   Notwithstanding the commitment of large human and other resources and the use of unconventional monetary policies, the ECB did not realize its prime objective during a large part of this period. We conclude that putting too much confidence in DSGE-modeling as one of the methodologies to determine monetary policy, may have played an important role in the ECB not achieving its main statutory objective.

Gravity Energy Storage (GES) systems are recently being considered as a viable solution for storing intermittent renewable energy power, specifically in high curtailment zones. While a few studies have analyzed the material costs of GES systems, there is a paucity of literature on analyzing the socioeconomic costs of GES systems. This study analyzes the location-dependent costs of GES plants using a multi-factor spatial parameterization model for evaluating the existence of a point of minimum cost in a suburban mountainous geography. A case study of 500x500 points in a 50x50km2 area in the suburban area of Fukuoka city in Japan is performed. It is found that the cost of material transportation and transmission is more dominant in determining the position of an optimal cost location than factors of excavation and land costs. The position of the minima is also related to the principal urban area in that the line connecting the Center Business District (CBD) and suburban flat areas (line 1) is where the potential minima lie. The intersection point of an orthogonal to the line connecting the CBD with a substation nearest to the flat area with line 1, is the potential zone of minima location. The findings of this study are critical for urban energy planners and reveals how socioeconomic cost factors can aid in geolocation a suitable GES installation site.

The rise of privately issued digital currencies, which primarily serve as alternative investment assets poses a challenge to the traditional financial instruments traded in the financial market. This study examines the dynamic relationship between the major privately issued digital currency (Bitcoin) and two financial market securities in Nigeria. The paper employed Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and presents three relevant findings. First, the impulse response function indicates the absence of a significant response of the Nigerian financial market to shocks emanating from the Bitcoin market, implying lower connectedness between the two markets. Secondly, the outcome of the variance decomposition reveals a lower contribution of Bitcoin to changes in stock prices and treasury bills, however, stock prices and treasury bills contributed higher impact to each other compared to the contribution of Bitcoin. Thirdly, a weak bi-directional causality between the Bitcoin and treasury bills was observed and a uni-directional causality running from treasury bills and stocks, implying the existence of portfolio rebalancing from the fixed income to the equities market. Despite the weak connection between digital currency and the financial market, the paper recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Securities and Exchange Commission should maintain monitoring the development of crypto exchanges and continue reviewing the existing policy restricting cryptocurrency transactions through banks to avoid its unsavoury effects.

The digital transformation of manufacturing industry can promote the development of green transformation and promote the differentiation of workers’ skill structure; On the other hand, it will also hinder the green development due to the huge energy consumption generated by the application of digital technology and facilities. In addition, the green transformation of manufacturing industry will also have differentiated impacts on the employment of labour with different skills due to the innovation of green technology. The existing research has not discussed too much about the interaction among the digital transformation and green transformation in manufacturing industry and labour structure. So, this paper uses the PVAR model to examine the dynamic relationship between digital and green transformation within the industrial sector from the perspective of labour structure, specifically analyzing the impact difference across regions. The results suggest that there is a reciprocal connection between the digitization of manufacturing sector and the labour structure, particularly in the eastern region of China, but the overall interaction between the two remains weak. The interactive between the green transformation of manufacturing industry and the labour structure in the central and western areas has been delayed over periods 1-6. Digital and green manufacturing transformation reinforce each other in central and western regions. However, the digital revolution in the manufacturing industry is hindered by the green transformation in eastern region.

In China, the land arrangement behavior of over 160 million rural-urban migrant workers is closely related to the optimal allocation of rural land resources and sustainable development of urban and rural areas. Although previous studies show that social capital affects migrant workers’ land arrangement behavior, few empirical studies reveal the relationship between them, and the corresponding interventions remain unclear. Using survey data collected in Henan Province, China, and a multinomial logit model, this study empirically analyzes the mechanism behind the impact of social capital on migrant workers’ land arrangement behavior from the perspective of social capital. Results illustrate that social capital has a significant impact on the land arrangement behavior of migrant workers. The behavior is significantly correlated with the scale of migrant workers’ urban social networks, the degree of urban social trust, and urban belonging. More social capital in urban areas indicates a higher tendency for migrant workers to abandon their land contracting rights and become permanent urban residents. This study reveals the mechanism of social capital affecting migrant workers’ land arrangement behavior and provides a reference for decision-making with respect to guiding migrant workers’ land management behavior for other countries facing similar social problems.

The diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Pakistan have undergone significant development since the late 1990s. Despite some studies focusing on diplomatic and political relations, the economic dimension of this partnership has not been systematically covered. In this paper, a robust least squares (RLS) approach is used to model bilateral trade between the two countries and identify statistically significant determinants, including economic, institutional, and cultural factors, after analyzing the main economic and subsectoral trade dynamics of both countries. The results reveal that Azerbaijan's imports from Pakistan are significantly associated with the country's higher income and market size, while Pakistan's elevated exchange rate and trade costs hinder bilateral trade. In addition, Pakistan's rising manufacturing output increases exports to Azerbaijan but decreases imports from Azerbaijan. Among institutional determinants, government effectiveness, the trade freedom index (TFI), and political stability play significant roles in bilateral trade. Lastly, it was found that cultural proximity increases Pakistani exports to Azerbaijan but not imports from Azerbaijan. The analysis also indicates that domestic savings stimulate Pakistani exports. These findings underscore the complex nature of bilateral trade between Azerbaijan and Pakistan and highlight the need for institutional arrangements to harmonize trade flows and boost welfare gains from trade. The results may be of great importance to intergovernmental working groups, domestic policymakers, and businesses.

The present paper empirically examines the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, which posits an inverted U-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth, in Egypt, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey for the period 1970-2020. The EKC validity is highly debated due to varying results across countries. This study is significant to addresses this controversy by estimating the EKC's robustness while considering the influence of financial development, globalization, and government expenditure. We employ two cointegration techniques, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM), also considering potential structural breaks in the data. Out key findings indicate that the EKC hypothesis is supported in India, Pakistan, and Turkey, with carbon emissions eventually declining after reaching a peak. The hypothesis is not supported in Egypt and Thailand, where emissions rise monotonically with economic growth. In Mexico, the results are mixed, with ARDL suggesting a U-shaped relationship and VECM supporting the EKC. From our empirical analysis of the EKC hypothesis, we derive the following policy implications: 1) countries should adopt comprehensive policy strategies that integrate these goals and fully consider the long-term environmental and societal impacts of their decisions; 2) countries should invest heavily in research and development to accelerate the creation of new technologies that can effectively reduce carbon emissions; and 3) countries must actively raise awareness about the environmental repercussions of economic growth.

The latent transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β) binding protein 1 (LTBP1) has been implicated in various cellular processes, but its role in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the impact of LTBP1 on TNBC progression and its underlying mechanisms. Analysis of online datasets revealed elevated LTBP1 mRNA expression in breast cancer tissues compared to normal adjacent tissues. Kaplan-Meier Plotter analysis indicated that high LTBP1 expression was negatively correlated with relapse-free survival (RFS), distant-metastasis free survival (DMFS), and overall survival (OS) of breast cancer patients. Additionally, LTBP1 mRNA levels were associated with chemotherapy resistance. Functional assays in TNBC cells demonstrated that LTBP1 knockdown suppressed cell proliferation, induced apoptosis, and attenuated migration and invasion. In vivo studies confirmed that LTBP1 knockdown inhibited tumor growth in a xenograft mouse model. Mechanistically, LTBP1 positively correlated with genes involved in signaling regulation and organelle organization, with significant associations to GTPase binding and the RhoA/ROCK pathway. LTBP1 knockdown reduced RhoA activity and phosphorylation of Myosin Light Chain 2 (MLC2), suggesting inhibition of the RhoA/ROCK signaling pathway. Moreover, activation of the RhoA/ROCK pathway partially rescued the effects of LTBP1 knockdown on TNBC cell proliferation, apoptosis, migration, and invasion. In conclusion, our findings suggest that LTBP1 promotes TNBC progression through activation of the RhoA/ROCK signaling pathway, highlighting its potential as a therapeutic target for TNBC.

Giving full play to the interaction of multi-dimensional environmental regulation is an important method to accelerate the green transformation of manufacturing enterprises which is a significant way to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the theory of evolution game, a green transformation strategy evolution game model participated by the government, consumers, and manufacturing enterprises has been constructed. Stability research is conducted based on the behavioral mode of the three parties participating subjects and the paper uses MATLAB for numerical simulation to analyze the impact of environmental regulations of different dimensions on the green transformation of enterprises. The research shows that: (1) When the government adopts a single environmental regulation of carbon emission right transaction or green consumption subsidy, it will not affect the choice of green transformation strategies of the enterprise. (2) When the government adopts a single environmental regulation of environmental protection tax, it only promotes enterprises to choose green transformation strategies under limited conditions. (3) Under the multi-dimensional environmental regulations of the government, by affecting the cost and income of enterprise green technology innovation, consumers’ green consumption behavior, and the manufacturing enterprises choose green transformation as a stable strategy. Therefore, the government should give full play to the role of multi-dimensional environmental regulations in promoting consumers' green consumption and enterprises’ green technology innovation to accelerate the green transformation of manufacturing enterprises.

Banks are at the core of economic functioning in various countries and are the cause of their development in various fields. In a changing environment, they must deal with certain risks and maintain financial stability as the ultimate objective. The primary objective of this study is to examine the correlation between credit risk and bank stability within the Tunisian banking sector, with a specific focus on understanding the moderating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve this, we employ several econometric techniques, including panel unit root and cointegration tests, panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our empirical analysis relies on a panel dataset that encompasses a comprehensive sample of 8 Tunisian banks over 2000-2020. The results of our analysis unveil a significant negative relationship between credit risk and bank stability, indicating that higher levels of credit risk exert a detrimental effect on the overall stability of Tunisian banks. Furthermore, our study highlights that this adverse impact is further exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that the pandemic acts as a moderator. The findings of this study hold substantial implications for policymakers, regulators, and bank managers in Tunisia. They emphasize the critical importance of implementing robust risk management practices to mitigate credit risk and bolster bank stability. Additionally, the research underscores the need to consider the unique challenges introduced by external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, when assessing the overall stability of the banking system.

This study examined the determinants of the exchange rate in a mono-resource economy, during the period of currency and oil price fall in Nigeria. The aim of the study is to ascertain the potentiality of economic diversification (non-oil export) in saving the falling value of the domestic currency, as well as, its stability. The study employed the use of monthly data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation from January 2008 to December 2020 using the ARDL and NARDL models to achieve the stated objectives. In the literature, several empirical studies analyzed the relationship between exchange rates, oil price, and oil export and came to the logical conclusion that a rise in the price of oil would bring about a rise in the exchange rate, all things being equal while the reverse is the case. To add to the existing body of knowledge this study did not only look at the relationship between the variables but also examined the determinants of the exchange rate in a mono-resource economy and ascertained the potentiality of economic diversification in bringing succor to the falling exchange rate in the midst of falling oil price. The NARDL result corroborates the findings of previous studies on the relationship between exchange rate, oil price, and the performance of non-oil export. It maintains that positive changes in oil prices would lead to the appreciation of domestic currency while negative changes in oil prices would lead to the depreciation of the domestic currency. With this analysis, the study recommends the diversification of the economy and revitalization of the non-oil sector. Since import proves to have a negative impact on the exchange rate, the revitalization of the non-oil sector stimulates domestic consumption and thus reduces import bills which raise the demand for the dollar and weakens the naira.

Spence’s signaling model (Spence, 1973) suggests that education can signal workers’ unobserved ability to employers thereby mitigating discrimination. There have been several studies concerning education’s impact on labor market discrimination against minority or disadvantaged groups. Our approach in this inquiry is unique in that we utilize the data of PhD recipients, a group of people with the highest education attainment, to test Spence’s theory. Another novelty of this paper is that in addition to examining possible discrimination against women and foreign-born, as has been done in previous studies, we further explore possible discrimination against the physically challenged individuals. Our baseline results show conflicting results that Ph.D. education can reduce discrimination against disability and foreign-born but not against gender. Further analysis by the Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition shows that the wage gaps of gender and disability come more from the unobserved part than the explained part, while the foreign-born wage gap come more from the observable human capital differences. Since prejudice is an unobserved factor and we know that the disadvantaged groups are likely to suffer from prejudice (Oaxaca, 1973; Blinder, 1973; Montes-Rojas et al., 2017; Deshpande and Khanna, 2018), we conjecture that prejudice might be attributable to the unexplained part of the wage gaps. Furthermore, prejudice might be deeply rooted in one’s mind, thus difficult to remove even with the influence of education. Hence, our results reveal that it would be hard for Ph.D. education to eradicate the discrimination against gender and disability, but not against foreign-born.

Less-Lethal Weapons, including electric Tasers, velocity-reduction bullet-capture projectiles, rubber bullets, beanbag rounds, and other less-lethal projectiles used in police departments, federal and local law enforcement agencies, and military policing operations, as well as for private use, are topics of significant debate in recent years. These weapons can reduce collateral damage, reputational risk, and legal exposure while preventing wrongful and unnecessary deaths caused by conventional bullet wounds. Yet, opponents have highlighted concerns regarding the safety and effectiveness of these weapons, as well as their potential to cause injury or even death. While the primary duty of law enforcement officials is to preserve order and execute the law while protecting individual rights, they ultimately achieve these goals by exercising their coercive authority. Society expects police officers to rely on their professional training and judgment when using physical force to defend citizens and themselves or to apprehend criminal suspects. Because police officers must occasionally participate in physical acts of coercion, it is unavoidable that some of these interactions may result in bodily injuries to individuals, including the officers themselves. These injuries have real costs, such as medical treatment, lost wages, municipal liability, court claims and settlements, riots, and legal or even criminal exposure, as well as less-tangible collateral costs, such as the erosion of police legitimacy and public trust, which are more difficult to quantify but arguably more influential in shaping long-term public perceptions than personal injuries alone. Less lethal technology eliminates some of the concerns raised by lethal weaponry. This study reviews the advantages and disadvantages of these less-lethal weapon technologies versus traditional firearms for use by the police force, federal agencies, and military police while also performing advanced analytics to model the valuation and return on investment for a law enforcement organization implementing such technologies.

Population, as a fundamental element in urban development, often reflects a city's economic development pattern through its spatial distribution and dynamic changes. Studying population spatial distribution is pivotal for bolstering the economic activity capacity in urban agglomerations and guiding regional economic health. Using the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration as a case study, this paper analyzes its overall spatial structure and the spatiotemporal evolution of population at the district and county levels. This analysis utilizes population density, population redistribution index, and population geographic concentration as key indices. Additionally, a spatial econometric model is constructed to assess the impact of economic, social, and environmental factors on population spatial patterns. Findings reveal several key points: (1) Furong District serves as the primary central area, boasting a population geographic concentration of 25.1% in 2021. Tianxin District, Kaifu District, Yuhua District, Shifeng District, Yuelu District, and Hetang District constitute the secondary central areas, while Yutang District, Tianyuan District, Lusong District, Yuhu District, Wangcheng District, and Changsha County form the tertiary level areas. (2) Population density within the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration gradually decreases from Furong District outward. The first central area and sub-central areas experience increasing population density, highlighting a polarization trend in the population distribution. (3) The overall Moran's index for the spatial distribution of population in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is significantly positive, indicating a strong spatial autocorrelation and a deepening spatial agglomeration of population distribution. (4) Per capita disposable income, financial expenditure, and education level positively influence the geographical concentration of population in the urban agglomeration, while GDP per capita, road area per capita, and environmental quality exert a negative impact. Notably, the most influential factors shaping population spatial distribution are GDP per capita, disposable income per capita, and air quality.

Cloud computing is one of the fastest growing domains of the IT industry, however, the growth rates for each of the models on a global and local (Russian) scale have not been generalized, despite the obvious value of such analysis. Modern business and industry in Russia is going through another period of instability and at the same time is forced to follow the trend of digitalization. That is why a balanced scientific analysis and forecast of the development of cloud technologies is needed, as the main factor in improving business efficiency. The purpose of the study: is to review the main models of cloud services for modern business and industry, describing their capabilities separately and the prospects for the market as a whole. The materials for the study were analytical reports of leading consulting companies and materials from specialized web-sites. Result: The article considers cloud technologies as the main global technological trend, describes popular models of cloud services, their opportunities for business and industry. Russian and global leaders in the provision of cloud services are also described, the growth rates of these markets for each of the models are indicated. The most popular and promising cloud service models in 2022 are: UCaaS, CaaS, SaaS, IaaS, RPAaaS, PaaS. The cloud technology market will show strong growth until 2030, generating both hybrid and absolutely new service models. The private business, industrial and public sectors will increasingly move to cloud services. The main trends in the development of cloud technologies until 2030 are: hybrid cloud, artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing, deployment of cloud services in the planetary orbit. The results obtained are very valuable for analysts and industry experts. The above trend analysis provides valuable predictive data to research economists, investors, business and industry leaders and other stakeholders on how the cloud services market will grow in the next 5-7 years. The results of the study also have a general theoretical nature, substantiating the importance of further forecasting the development of this market (especially using mathematical methods).

Environmental concerns are increasing and business firms are inclined towards adoption of eco-friendly products and services. They are hiring employees via set of green HRM practices and struggling to become an environmentally sustainable firm. Pakistani food industry is booming day by day. However, less is known about the green HRM practices executed in the fast food industry of Pakistan. Therefore, this research is interested in examining the impact of Green recruitment and selection, green training and development and green performance and compensation management on the P-O fit, affective commitment and green recovery performance in Pakistan’s fast food industry. The moderating effects of transformational leadership will be examined between Green HRM practices and green recovery performance. A sample of 408 employees who are working at different designations were selected to accomplish the purpose of the research. These managers will be selected through convenient sampling technique. There were 21 fast food restaurants (Burger Joints) selected from all over Karachi, few of them includes; KFC, Burger Lab, Burger O Clock, Vintage, Plan B and more. The collected primary data will be tested through the application of structural equation modeling technique. Smart PLS software is used to assess the objectives. The results of the study revealed significant association between Green R&S, Green T&D and P-O fit. A non-significant association is found between Green P& C and P-O Fit. The study affirmed that Affective commitment posit a direct influence on GRP. The Green R&S and Green P&C revealed insignificant impacts on the green recovery performance within the fast food industry. The indirect association was analyzed between P&C, P-O fit, AF and GRP and revealed an insignificant result. Likewise, an indirect association is found between R/S, P-O Fit, AF and GRP. The future researchers are recommended to analysis the remaining elements of GHRM and investigate their impacts on the fast food industry of Pakistan. There is a need to create awareness regarding green HRM practices and their influence on the Green recovery performance in Pakistan. Policy makers are recommended to develop such policies that promotes GHRM in Pakistan.

The rapid growth of renewable solar and wind energy necessitates extensive, long-term energy storage solutions to stabilize the electric grid and address the intermittent nature of these sources. In the absence of cost-effective long-duration, large-scale (LDLS) energy storage, there is a risk of increased disruptive blackouts and brownouts as intermittent energy sources approach 50% of electricity generation. Our analysis underscores volumetric energy density as a pivotal determinant in LDLS energy storage solutions, which is particularly crucial during periods of diminished renewable resource availability, such as the rainy season. Despite emphasis on conventional electric batteries and mechanical storage technologies such as compressed air and pumped hydro for LDLS, their costs pose a significant obstacle to widespread adoption, especially in emerging economies. In this study, we present a groundbreaking approach to LDLS: on-demand electricity generation from carbon-neutral renewable oil, known as "green oil," leveraging Reliance’s innovative catalytic hydrothermal liquefaction (R-CAT-HTL) technology. Our investigation evaluated two distinct sources of green oil production: organic waste streams (e.g., municipal solid waste, agricultural-waste, etc.) and on purpose production of algal biomass. We demonstrate that burning renewable green oil to produce electricity offers a cost-effective solution for large-scale (GWh) long-duration (many days) energy storage, ensuring the stability, reliability, and resiliency of the electric grid. We also demonstrate that minimum 14 days, ideally 30 days energy storage is needed for continuous uninterrupted service, especially critical for manufacturing facilities. Through a meticulous levelized cost of storage (LCOS) analysis comparing green oil with other LDLS technologies reported in literature, we demonstrate the cost effectiveness of green oil. In this model, green oil serves as stored energy, functions akin to a battery and is efficiently converted into electricity through conventional reciprocating engines or next-generation more efficient turbines. Our findings suggest that green oil derived from diverse organic sources is the most economically viable option for GWh-scale storage, particularly when storage requirements extend beyond a single day. This research thus presents a transformative cost-effective solution to the pressing challenge of LDLS energy storage, accelerating a sustainable and resilient energy future.

In the context of digital economy, Hebei Province, as an important province in central China, has a huge manufacturing base and potential, and the development of digital economy has driven the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry to a certain extent. In order to better play the driving role of digital economy in the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, this paper establishes an intermediary effect model based on three intermediary variables: enterprise resource allocation ability, enterprise cost and enterprise innovation ability, and conducts an empirical study on the panel data of 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province from 2017 to 2022. The mechanism of digital economy driving manufacturing upgrading in Hebei Province was discussed. The results show that: (1) there is a significant positive correlation between the development of digital economy and the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, which indicates that the development of digital economy has a direct driving effect on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry; (2) There is also a positive correlation between the development of digital economy and the resource allocation ability and innovation ability of enterprises, indicating that the development of digital economy can improve the resource allocation ability and innovation ability of enterprises, and is conducive to the stable development of enterprises in the future; (3) Enterprise resource allocation ability and enterprise innovation ability play a significant intermediary role in the relationship between digital economy development and the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, indicating that digital economy can indirectly accelerate the transformation of manufacturing enterprises' R & D achievements by improving enterprises' resource allocation ability and innovation ability, thus improving enterprises' market competitiveness and increasing enterprises' earnings. Drive the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. Based on this research conclusion, the government should give full play to the role of guidance and support, and introduce relevant policies to help the digital economy drive the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing enterprises. Manufacturing enterprises should seize the tide of the development of the digital economy, use digital technology to improve their resource allocation ability and innovation ability, enhance core competitiveness, and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.

Many of Keynes´s ideas and concepts are proven correct in this paper. The demand side, mainly business investments, drives the economy. Business firms steer the business cycle via profit expectations and animal spirits. Injections to and withdrawals from the circular flow of income are multiplied throughout the economy in accordance with Keynes´s multiplier. A sudden and sharp rise in households´ saving rates has a detrimental effect on aggregate demand, in line with Keynes´s paradox of thrift. Finance, not saving in the S=I sense, is the necessary condition for business investments and economic growth to be realized. Keynes´s finance motive thus makes money endogenous, contradicting the textbook result that exogenous money steers aggregate demand, contradicting the mainstream loanable funds theory and putting into question the Keynesian theory of sticky prices as a condition for real growth. However, a crucial omission in Keynes´s productive writings is the lack of an accelerator tying income to investment. Some of his followers such as Paul Samuelson tried to remedy that by developing multiplier-accelerator models. The problem with them is that the accelerator lacks micro foundations, in specific disregarding business confidence. Linking macro accounting identities with empirical national accounts data for five major economies produces the finding that business firms explain more than all aggregate expenditure growth during a 25-year period. Thus, it is concluded that business confidence is the root of the business cycle. Making the accelerator account for business confidence casts new light on the perhaps most well-known Keynesian “truth”: active fiscal policy as a main force stabilizing the business cycle. With business confidence being the endogenous and ubiquitous variable driving the business cycle, it turns out that any exogenous factor has the possibility to affect it. Policy needs to be viewed as a competing factor to the factor(s) driving the cycle in the other, destabilizing direction. The more powerful those factors are (e.g., a deadly virus), the tougher it gets for policy to “win” the competition, turning business confidence around. This leads up to the paper´s main conclusion: the worse the economy, the stronger is the case for active fiscal policy, but the lesser is the chance for it to succeed.