Credit scoring remains one of the most important subjects in financial risk management. Although the methods in this field have grown in sophistication, further improvements are necessary. These advances could translate in major gains for financial institutions and other companies that extend credit by diminishing the potential for losses in this process. This research seeks to compare statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) predictors in a credit risk analysis setting, namely the discriminant analysis, the logistic regression (LR), the artificial neural networks (ANNs), and the random forests. In order to perform this comparison, these methods are used to predict the default risk for a sample of companies that engage in trade credit. Pre-processing procedures are established, namely in the form of a proper sampling technique to assure the balance of the sample. Additionally, multicollinearity in the dataset is assessed via an analysis of the variance inflation factors (VIFs), and the presence of multivariate outliers is investigated with an algorithm based on robust Mahalanobis distances (MDs). After seeking the most beneficial architectures and/or settings for each predictor category, the final models are then compared in terms of several relevant key performance indicators (KPIs). The benchmarking analysis revealed that the artificial intelligence methods outperformed the statistical approaches.

We offer an extensive analysis of the significance of information within the realm of Gaussian quadratic economies. We build upon the seminal papers of Morris and Shin (2002, 2007) and consider a signal game of incomplete information. Particularly, we question the suitability of partial transparency portrayed by fragmented information in addition to the private signal in terms of welfare effects. We can summarize our findings in two main points. First, fragmented information, in conjunction with a private signal, can reduce the reliance on public signals. Second, a conflicting effect arises between increasing full disclosure and increasing the precision of fragmented (semi-public) information when examining different complex scenarios, involving for example endogenous private information or imperfect correlated signals. For a critical threshold, an optimal communication strategy designed by fragmented information should be implemented whenever that kind of information is acquired at a high precision.

This paper presents an operational framework for assessing the trajectories of production, energy, emissions, and capital accumulation to ensure the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The framework combines widely used methodologies (STIRPAT, system dynamics, and optimization) to simulate the pathways of variables until a target year. The CO-STIRPAT dynamic system allows us to identify the spillover pathways from carbon policy to economic growth based on output optimization principles; to conduct a more systematic analysis of the interconnections between the main drivers that determine carbon emissions; to develop a cost-effective climate policy mix that is a backbone for the right combination of carbon pricing, energy efficiency, and carbon intensity; and to assess NDC targets with respect to ambition gaps, implementation gaps, and feasibility.

Banks are at the core of economic functioning in various countries and are the cause of their development in various fields. In a changing environment, they must deal with certain risks and maintain financial stability as the ultimate objective. The primary objective of this study is to examine the correlation between credit risk and bank stability within the Tunisian banking sector, with a specific focus on understanding the moderating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve this, we employ several econometric techniques, including panel unit root and cointegration tests, panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our empirical analysis relies on a panel dataset that encompasses a comprehensive sample of 8 Tunisian banks over 2000-2020. The results of our analysis unveil a significant negative relationship between credit risk and bank stability, indicating that higher levels of credit risk exert a detrimental effect on the overall stability of Tunisian banks. Furthermore, our study highlights that this adverse impact is further exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that the pandemic acts as a moderator. The findings of this study hold substantial implications for policymakers, regulators, and bank managers in Tunisia. They emphasize the critical importance of implementing robust risk management practices to mitigate credit risk and bolster bank stability. Additionally, the research underscores the need to consider the unique challenges introduced by external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, when assessing the overall stability of the banking system.

This study investigates the impact of financial inclusion on environmental sustainability in 178 emerging and developing countries from 1996 to 2022. Employing a composite index derived through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) as a measure of financial inclusion and covering four aspects (access, depth, efficiency, stability), our analysis reveals negative outcomes. The findings indicate that enhancing financial inclusion is associated with a notable increase in CO2 per capita emissions as well as in Total Greenhouse Gas emissions. We demonstrate that controlling corruption improves environmental quality, yet this measure alone is insufficient to fully mitigate the impact of financial inclusion, as indicated by our moderation analysis. The same analysis, however, shows that fostering globalization through trade openness is an efficient tool to alleviate the positive effect of financial inclusion on the quality of the environment. The study employs various policies targeting the control of development levels, energy consumption, natural resource utilization, industry, and urban population dynamics to contextualize the influence of financial inclusion on environmental sustainability. Through econometric methods and a comprehensive examination of the specified time frame, our results provide insights into the complex interplay between financial inclusion and environmental outcomes in diverse socio-economic contexts. The research contributes to the discourse on sustainable development by highlighting the potential of certain factors as a catalyst for environmental improvement. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers, as it underlines the trade-off between integrating inclusive financial strategies and achieving environmentally sustainable development trajectories in emerging and developing nations. Moreover, shedding light on the underlying mechanisms, such as trade-offs, fills a significant gap in the literature.

This paper provides a thorough review of the shifting landscape of economic analysis, spotlighting recent trends and predicting future paths. While traditional economic models remain key for interpreting economic activity, they are being supplemented by fresh methods and cross-disciplinary viewpoints. The increased attention to inequality studies, using advanced statistical techniques and unique data sources, underscores the growing emphasis on fairness and distribution within economic analysis. The incorporation of behavioral elements into economic models also expands our comprehension of economic decision-making and market results. Notably, the emergence of computational economics-integrating artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and machine learning into economic scrutiny-represents a major development. Often referred to as ’smart economics,’ this field employs technology to formulate, address complex economic dilemmas, and perceive economic activity in unconventional ways. Yet, the application of AI and machine learning in economics introduces new hurdles around data privacy, algorithmic bias, and the transparency of model outcomes. The impact of the digital revolution on economic analysis is significant, as the advent of computational economics and the surge of big data are transforming research techniques and policy implications. Concurrently, the advent of the circular economy indicates a radical shift in our perspective on economic sustainability, carrying considerable implications for environmental policy and business tactics.  In the future, it’s anticipated that these trends will further modify the realm of economic analysis, with AI and machine learning integration, emphasis on sustainability and fairness, and the influence of big data becoming more pronounced. As these changes take place, it’s imperative for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to remain adaptable and flexible, prepared to capitalize on the opportunities and tackle the challenges these trends present.

Applying the network analysis’ tools and a large dataset over 2000-2017, this paper provides insights to the patterns and structure of global and regional migration and remittances as well as the connection between these two phenomena inside a complex network. We reveal that even though the structure of migration and remittance networks is slightly altering, the major changes have only occurred in the intensive margin of the networks. In addition, there is a deepening intra-regional trend regarding the structure of migration communities. By contrast, we observe an instability in the structure of migration and remittance communities formed around the U.S.

In this paper, a portfolio analysis is carried out using the Sharpe ratio to identify the optimal market portfolio. The measure of investment performance with a Sharpe ratio is compared to results obtained with bootstrapped resamples of the Sharpe ratio. The results indicate that the choice of the market portfolio is highly affected by the uncertainty regarding the estimation of the expected returns and the variance-covariance matrix between the returns, that is, the estimation risk associated with these parameters.

This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.

Innovation has received a great attention in the creative industries literature. We propose in this study a bibliometric method to examine the literature on innovation in creative industries (ICI). A file of 656 manuscripts published on ICI between 1998 and 2022 was retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection for analysis. The results highlight the evolution of study volume, authors, affiliated institutions and countries, author networks, keyword co-occurrences, and keyword networks. The study also includes a thematic map that highlights four types of research: driving themes (e.g., digital technology, cultural innovation, performing arts, product innovation, innovation management); core and cross-cutting themes (e.g., creativity, digitization, technology, copyright); emerging themes (e.g., gender, artificial intelligence, sustainability); and specialized and peripheral themes (e.g., gender, blockchain, digital music). We finally conclude by proposing future perspectives and a research agenda in this area.

According to economic theory and common sense, the issuance of consumption coupons on one hand stimulated the increasing of residents' consumption, but on the other pushed up the price level. In this paper, using the theory of mechanism design, the game model was built to analyze the relationship between the effect of consumer coupons during the epidemic and the number of merchants participated. The results show that the smaller the merchants’ number, the weaker the coupons’ effect, vice versa. Then, using KNN regression method, combined with the monthly year-on-year data of CPI from 1998 to 2020, this paper analyzes the changes of CPI forecast value and actual value in the first 10 months of 2020, finding that the actual value of CPI is higher than the predicted one during the first two months of 2020, but lower from March 2020 on, which further verifies the conclusion of game analysis.

How does democracy relate to the initial economic policy responses to Covid-19? Using a cross country analysis, we find that countries with a higher degree of democracy have stronger economic policy responses than their peers. However, when we separate monetary and financial policies from fiscal policy, democracy is not associated with the latter when we control for the income level of a country. Finally, for countries with lower levels of labor participation, high levels of income inequality are associated with weaker policy responses.

We analyze the annual microdata of China's 100 commercial banks from 2007 to 2018 using the mediating effect analysis method, analyze the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on the credit scale of commercial banks, and then verify the intermediary effects of the operational risks and short-term capital liquidity of commercial banks in the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the scale of commercial bank credit, separately. Moreover, we find that non-state-owned commercial banks, large-scale commercial banks, low-leverage commercial banks, and commercial banks with low profitability are more susceptible to economic policy uncertainty affecting commercial bank credit growth through short-term capital liquidity, and vice versa.

This paper explores how the medical expenditure risk affects the households’ portfolio choice across health status theoretically in a life cycle model and empirically using machine learning methods. Medical expenditure risk, as a background risk, has the potential to influence households’ financial decisions. A higher medical expenditure risk leads to a larger fluctuation and more uncertainty in households’ consumption and therefore utility. As a result, risk-free assets become more attractive. Our machine learning analysis provides evidence that aligns with the predictions of the theoretical life cycle model. Specifically, households with better health hold a larger proportion of stocks in their portfolios. Furthermore, when facing increased medical expenditure risk, households in good health demonstrate a greater willingness to invest in safe assets.

Based on provincial panel data from 1998-2018, this paper estimates research and development (R&D) factors, and a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model is constructed to examine the effects of R&D factors on regional total factor productivity (TFP). The results show that both R&D capital stock and R&D personnel can significantly promote regional TFP, but the productivity-enhancing effect of R&D factors is different between regions. Specifically, R&D capital and R&D personnel can promote TFP in eastern and central provinces, and the promotion effect is not significant in western provinces. In addition, compared with investment-driven regions, innovation-driven regions are more likely to enhance TFP by R&D factors.

The global agricultural supply chain grapples with inherent challenges, including opacity, inefficiency, and ethical concerns, necessitating innovative solutions, particularly within Indian Agriculture Supply Chain Management. Despite these challenges, a notable research gap emerges due to the limited exploration of adoption factors specific to the Indian agricultural context. To bridge this gap, a comprehensive investigation is initiated to delve into the nuanced dynamics of blockchain technology adoption in the Indian agricultural supply chain. The primary aim of this study is to provide insights into these adoption dynamics, employing a three-stage methodology. Starting with an extensive literature review to identify key adoption factors, the study then distributed a well-crafted questionnaire to 200 respondents, yielding 150 complete and analyzable responses. The chosen methodologies, including a one-sample t-test and exploratory factor analysis, allow for a quantitative assessment of the significance of various factors. The study's findings reveal crucial dimensions influencing blockchain adoption, such as perceived benefits, ease of use, trust, efficiency, ethical considerations, data security, integrity, regulatory compliance, and collaboration and stakeholder engagement, providing a comprehensive understanding of the adoption landscape. In conclusion, this research significantly contributes to comprehending the nuanced adoption dynamics of blockchain technology in the Indian agricultural supply chain, supported by a substantial sample size and robust methodological choices. The implications extend to stakeholders navigating the evolving agricultural supply chain, offering valuable insights for future research, policy considerations, and practical strategies, with a central focus on fostering transparency, efficiency, and ethical standards to address global agricultural supply chain challenges.

Parkinson’s Disease (PD) is a prevalent progressive neurodegenerative condition affecting millions globally. Research has found that individuals with PD have a reduced risk of certain cancers, such as colon, lung, and rectal cancers, but an increased risk of brain cancer. Therefore, there is an urgent need for the development of advanced PD diagnostic methods and for investigating the relationships between risk factors, such as lifestyle due to handedness associated with various types of cancers. Recent ad- vancements in magnetic resonance imaging have enhanced PD diagnosis, reducing misdiagnosis and facilitating more accurate disease progression monitoring. Nevertheless, challenges exist, particularly in the distinction of PD between left-handed and right-handed patients over time. This survey provides an overview of contemporary deep learning-based imag- ing analysis methodologies, encompassing both non-longitudinal and lon- gitudinal contexts. We also explore existing limitations and prospects for refinement to gain deeper insights. These insights are poised to inform the development of personalized treatment strategies for PD patients while elucidating the current disparities between deep learning models and their efficacious implementation in clinical practice.

Even though policy coordination is one of the oldest challenges that governments have to confront, as problems evolve and "New Public Management" concepts emerge, it has become even more essential. The current literature on policy coordination among government agencies, however, shows little regarding the way coordination is managed under centralized political systems. This study, based on the science and technology (S&T) policy documents issued by China's central government agencies between 1978 and 2020, provides a quantitative and dynamic analysis of the coordination of policies in China and presents a comprehensive overview of policy coordination paths and processes in centralized political systems. As a result, it provides a way that contributes to the analytical methods available for quantitatively analyzing policy documents. On the other hand, the key findings of the study show that, first, state council-administered ministries have taken the lead in coordinating policy while other types of organizations have collaborated in more subordinate capacities. Second, national themes that are democratic and driven by demand have been the core concern of coordination activities, such as social development, high-tech industrialization, and rural S&T. Third, policy coordination has evolved continuously and has mostly contributed to interpreting macrostrategies and implementing more specific implementation measures.

This paper aims to study and quantify the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth along with other variables in Tunisia. For that purpose, we estimate the relationship between GDP, agricultural exports, other exports, and imports by applying the ARDL approach under the period 1990-2020. The results show a negative and insignificant impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in the long and short run. Other exports negatively and significantly impact economic growth, while imports are found to have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. The findings have economic implications for sectors and activities that should be promoted to accelerate economic growth.

Access to electricity, a fundamental element of contemporary life, is essential for economic success. Its impact extends to the fundamental foundations of industrial development and has the power to improve a wide range of industries, including healthcare, transportation, utilities, and education. This article aims to analyse the effect of electricity access on primary education in Central Africa over the period 1997-2019. To this effect, we employ data mainly from the World Development indicator on 9 countries of Central Africa. Using the pooled ordinary least squares estimation technique, the results indicate that access to electricity contributes positively and significantly to primary educational attainment in Central Africa during the study period. The results are Robust to the use of alternative estimation strategy and eventual endogeneity problems in the results are account through the two stage least square estimation techniques which confirm our baseline results as well as the nature of the relationship between access to electricity and primary education in Central Africa. These results have important implications for policies in overcoming barriers to electricity access.