I present a theoretical model and an empirical approach for jointly estimating the effectiveness of fiscal policy and the stochastic process of sovereign interest rate shocks. The theoretical model has features relevant to small open and emerging economies. Interest rate shocks affect the ability of firms to finance payroll expenses. This theoretical feature creates a propagation mechanism for interest rate shocks and affects government spending multipliers. This paper proposes a strategy for jointly estimating government spending multipliers and the interest rate shock process parameters.

We develop a four-party model involving banks, merchants, consumers, and platform firms to explain why large shopping malls can offer interest-free installment services to consumers. Using a collaboration between an online shopping platform firm and multiple banks to issue co-branded credit cards as a natural experiment, we find that consumers’ spending on the platform fulfills the requirements for merchants and banks to choose a four-way model. This study highlights the pivotal role of platform firms in the credit card market.

This study delves into the intricate interconnections among the financial sector, macroeconomic dynamics, and the advancement of sustainable energy production in South Asia. Utilizing data from 1987 to 2022 in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, the research employs the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) method to analyze financial market responses. The findings reveal nuanced insights into the complex relationship between economic and environmental factors, fostering a comprehensive understanding of the region's intricate nexus between financial markets and sustainable energy initiatives. In the Economic Growth model, the negative coefficient for CO2 emissions underscores environmental concerns, indicating an inverse relationship with economic growth. Conversely, positive coefficients for non-fossil energy production, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, stock exchange value, and domestic credit emphasize their positive impact on economic growth. A positive GDP coefficient in the CO2 emission model signifies heightened carbon emissions with economic growth, while a negative coefficient for non-fossil energy production suggests potential environmental benefits. The nearly unitary positive coefficient for Gross Fixed Capital Formation highlights its significant role in driving carbon emissions. The Non-Fossil Energy Production model reveals an inverse relationship between GDP and clean energy, suggesting a potential reliance on fossil fuels during economic growth. Positive coefficients for CO2 emissions, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, stock exchange value, and domestic credit highlight factors influencing non-fossil energy production. Long-run stable coefficients affirm variable significance, while a negative error correction term suggests convergence in developing countries. These models offer nuanced insights into the intricate relationships among economic, environmental, and energy variables, guiding sustainable development policies in South Asia.

The Weibull distribution is extensively useful in the field of finance, insurance and natural disasters. Recently, It has been considered as one of the most frequently used statistical distributions in modelling and analyzing stock pricing movement and uncertain prediction in financial and investment data sets, such as insurance claims distribution. It is well known that the Bayes estimators of the two-parameter Weibull distribution do not have a compact form and the closed-form expression of the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained. In this paper and the Bayesian setting, it is assumed that the scale parameter of the Weibull model has a gamma prior under the assumption that its shape parameter is known. A simulation study is performed using random claims amount to compare the performance of the Bayesian approach with traditional maximum likelihood estimators in terms of Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for different sample sizes, with specific values of the scale parameter and shape parameters. The results have been compared with the estimated result via the maximum likelihood method. The result revealed that the Bayesian approach behaves similarly to the maximum likelihood method when the sample size is small. Nevertheless, in all cases for both methods, the RMSE and MAE decrease as the sample size increases. Finally, applications of the proposed model to the insurance claim data set have been presented.

This study delves into the complex relationship between China's international trade and economic growth, specifically focusing on emission intensity and its environmental ramifications within the context of energy efficiency. The primary objective is to provide a comprehensive understanding of how China's international trade dynamics influence economic growth, emphasizing emission intensity and employing a model that considers the nonlinear impact of trade on output. Through this model, structural breakpoints are identified, revealing distinct outcomes for China amidst positive and negative shocks from 1972 to 2021. The study uncovers the dual nature of the energy sector, acting both as a source of environmental degradation and a potential avenue for positive change through increased efficiency. Complex interplays among economic activities, inflation, and investment on carbon intensity are revealed. Additionally, the varying effects of export volume on carbon emissions intensity across lag thresholds underscore the significance of global trade dynamics for environmental sustainability. The study concludes by emphasizing the importance of balancing economic prosperity with environmental responsibility, advocating for carefully balanced policies that foster sustainable growth. Recommendations include considering the dual nature of the energy sector and implementing policies promoting increased efficiency. Policymakers are urged to adopt growth models prioritizing environmental responsibility, balancing economic activities, inflation, and investment to mitigate carbon intensity while acknowledging the diverse effects of global trade dynamics on environmental sustainability.

I will show that if the propensity to consume from savings satisfies appropriate conditions, the debt-GDP ratio will not grow infinitely large and fiscal collapse will not occur. Using a basic macroeconomic model, with an overlapping generations model in mind, we show the following results: 1) The budget deficit including interest payments on the government bonds equals an increase in the savings from a period to the next period. 2) If the savings in the first period is positive, we need budget deficit to maintain full employment under constant prices or inflation in the later periods. 3) Under an appropriate assumption about the propensity to consume from savings, the debt-GDP ratio converges to a finite value. It does not diverge to infinity. The larger the propensity to consume from savings, the smaller the budget deficit required to achieve full employment. The larger the propensity to consume from savings, the less likely it is that the debt-GDP ratio will become large.

Motivated by the Blackorby-Schworm (1993) observation that market outcomes may differ from those originating in market-actor optimization, this paper claims that the number of banks in the market is larger than the number justified by bank profit maximization alone or in combination with bank depositor welfare maximization. This claim is made within the context of bilateral monopoly banks and intertemporal utility maximization by bank depositors. The basic policy implication towards bank population rationalization is a minimization of the deviation away from the optimal interest rate margin at every stage of the business cycle. It is meant to be an acyclical policy though the target of optimal bank population is attainable by active countercyclical policy as well. The nature of this policy issue makes the use of macroprudential measures imperative, jointly perhaps with a fiscal-monetary policy mix. A dynamic version of the model in a Cournot environment is akin to the modeling of Minsky's hypothesis of financial fragility.

The Oswald hypothesis is that home ownership reduces mobility and through that channel results in poorer labor market outcomes. There has been only limited previous evidence on the Australian case. Here we use data from the first four Australian censuses of the twenty-first century, aggregated at the smallest geographical areas for which statistics are released. We propose testing the Oswald hypothesis by estimating the effect of home ownership on the full-time employment rate. Modelling the unemployment rate, as is often done in testing the hypothesis, produces implausible results with respect to the control variables, most likely due to the limitations of the official definition of unemployment. We find that, in modelling the full-time employment rate, the control variables for educational and demographic factors have the theoretically plausible effects, while variables capturing rates for both outright home ownership and with mortgage home ownership are positively related to full-time employment rates, with the effect of the former stronger than the latter. Our findings strongly contradict the Oswald hypothesis.

With the development of information technology and its application in environmental governance, the role of the internet in improving energy efficiency and reducing energy-saving potential (ESP) has attracted more attention. In this study, the slack-based model (SBM) and the unexpected model, along with the entropy method, were applied to measure China's energy-saving potential and internet development. Further, we empirically analyzed the direct effect, mediating effect, threshold effect, and regional heterogeneity of the internet on ESP. Our conclusion shows that there is a significant spatial correlation between internet penetration and ESP. Internet penetration has become an important tool for reducing ESP, but this effect shows regional heterogeneity. Human capital accumulation, financial development, and industrial upgrading are important influencing mechanisms, but indirect effects are weaker than direct effects. The impact of internet penetration on ESP is non-linear, and for improving human capital accumulation, financial development, and industrial upgrading, the role of internet popularization in energy conservation is more obvious.

College choice and choice of major are the most important decisions for future earnings. It is still unclear, however, what makes a greater difference—college or major—or whether a choice of college matters more for some majors, but not the others. Using cross-classified models and College Scorecard data, I show that a discipline is more consequential for future earnings than a college. The effect of STEM is substantial but is less pronounced at institutions with higher overall median earnings. The effect of college selectivity on earnings is more pronounced for non-STEM disciplines. Institutional characteristics—such as tuition, shares of graduates receiving different forms of financial aid, institutional size and location, and type of college—correlate with earnings of graduates. Racial and gender composition of an educational program correlate with expected earnings of its graduates even after control for other institutional and disciplinary characteristics. Models presented here provide a better understanding of the effect of college and major choices on future earnings.

The precise prediction of carbon emissions trading prices is the foundation for the stable and sustainable development of the carbon financial market. In recent years, influenced by a combination of factors such as the pandemic, trading regulations, and policies, carbon prices have exhibited strong random volatility and clear non-stationary characteristics. Traditional single-perspective prediction methods based on conventional statistical models are increasingly inadequate due to the homogenization of features and are struggling to adapt to China's regional carbon emissions trading market. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-perspective fusion-based prediction method tailored to the Chinese market. It leverages carbon emissions trading information from key cities as relevant features to predict the price changes in individual cities. Inspired by the development of artificial intelligence, this paper implements various time series models based on deep neural networks. The effectiveness of the multi-perspective approach is validated through multiple metrics. It provides scientific decision-making tools for domestic carbon emissions trading investors, making a significant contribution to strengthening carbon market risk management and promoting the establishment and rational development of a unified carbon market in China.

This study employs empirical analysis using an econometric model that examines the interdependence among environmental degradation, exports, and economic development with energy use. It also provides an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for selected South Asian economies utilizing time-series data. The findings reveal a long-term, stable equilibrium link between energy demand and pollution. There exists a positive relationship between structural factors and pollution. Moreover, this study constructs a model of exports and pollution from an interdependent perspective. The three perspectives are tested: the scale and structure of energy consumption considering the twin constraints of export-trade and pollution, and the scale of pollution in export-trade constraint. These results show that the increase in energy use leads to higher CO2 emissions amidst export volume. However, in the presence of income, the scale of effect lowers a little. The analysis also supports the presence of Kuznets curve for south-Asian economies. The results imply substantial scope for development in the energy use and pollution structure within South Asia's current export trade process. This development can be attained by regulating energy use and enhancing system efficacy without necessitating changes to the scale effect or structural effect.

The issue of food security has become a global challenge, and it is therefore crucial to seek measures to ensure food security. As an emerging economic model, the digital economy is regarded as the most effective tool for the modernization of agricultural development. As a large food-producing country, China faces serious problems of agricultural non-point source pollution and food loss and waste. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of digital village construction on food security. We measure the level of digital village construction and food security by entropy method and use the spatial Durbin model to analyze them. In this paper, we found that digital village construction facilitates food security not only in the region but also in neighboring regions. In addition, we found that the promotion effect is significant in main grain producing regions, while the opposite result is found in non-main grain producing regions. We hold that the application of the digital economy in the countryside has played an obvious role in promoting food security in main grain producing provinces, and provides important experimental evidence for reference to ensure food security in the future.

The primary goal of this research is to examine how different types of energy are used in South Asian countries and how they affect the environment and economic growth. From 1990 through 2021, this research employed Panel Data from multiple sources covering the South Asian countries of Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, and Afghanistan. The results are determined by using the Fixed Effect Regression (FEM) technique in both models. Several significant findings are supported by the data. First, while using renewable energy flattens carbon dioxide effusion, using non-renewable energy sources increases it. CO2 emissions are affected negatively by gross domestic product but positively by gross domestic product square. These results provide credence to the idea that South Asian countries do experience an Environment Kuznets Curve. Furthermore, foreign direct investment has a beneficial effect on CO2 emissions, lending credence to the Pollution Haven Hypothesis. Model 2 instead finds that both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption contributes to economic expansion. Gross Fixed Capital Formation and foreign direct investment also contribute to economic growth in this area. Finally, Inflation retards economic expansion.

The vigorous development of the digital economy provides a new research perspective for alleviating local financial pressure. Based on the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020, the mediating effect model and threshold regression model were used to explore the effect and mechanism of the digital economy on local fiscal pressure. The research shows that the digital economy has a significant alleviating effect on local financial pressure by increasing fiscal revenue, and this alleviating effect has a threshold effect on entrepreneurial activity. From the perspective of dimension, the alleviating effect of the digital economy development environment on local financial pressure is better than that of digital industrialization and industrial digitization. From a regional perspective, the digital economy has the most apparent impact on the western region. In addition, the quantile regression results show that with the increase in financial pressure, the easing effect of the digital economy shows an inverted U-shaped change. Therefore, in order to effectively alleviate the financial pressure on local governments, China should continue to promote the development of the digital economy, take multiple measures to increase entrepreneurial activity, and encourage various regions to implement differentiated digital economy development strategies according to local conditions.

This study compares return and volatility performance of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with high-ESG (Environment, Social, and Governance) rating vs. low-ESG rating. The paper also examines time-series data predictability by identifying their positive dependence and volatility asymmetry properties, and examines the performance of two combinations of short-memory models i.e., autoregressive moving average and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARMA-EGARCH); autoregressive moving average and asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARMA-APARCH) and two long-memory models, autoregressive moving average and fractionally integrated exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-FIGARCH); and autoregressive fractionally-integrated moving average and asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-APARCH). The study found that low-ESG rating ETFs on average have slightly significant higher returns and also lower volatility compared to their high-ESG rating counterparts. Evidence of asymmetric volatility properties are also present on both high-ESG and low-ESG rating ETFs returns. The study also observed that for both high-ESG and low-ESG rating ETFs denote a stationarity, but non-invertible process in their returns. Results can provide fresh understanding in the topic of leverage effects and volatility that can open future research channels to academicians.

Carbon emissions trading is essential for reducing carbon emissions, and its role in regional carbon unlocking needs further clarification. This study uses the difference-in-differences (DID) model and synthetic control model (SCM) to evaluate the carbon unlocking effect of China’s six pilot carbon trading provinces. This study found that (1) carbon lock-in effects in China are mainly influenced by technology lock-in and fixed input lock-in; (2) each province’s overall carbon lock-in level presents a decreasing trend yearly, and the regional distribution presents characteristics of “low in the east and high in the west”; (3) carbon emissions trading pilot policies effectively promote the carbon unlocking effect in pilot regions overall, with Guangdong having the most significant unlocking effect. Conversely, Beijing, Hubei, Chongqing, and Shanghai also had different degrees of carbon unlocking. Finally, (4) an assessment of impact mechanisms indicates that technology and institutions have a significant mediating role in effectively promoting carbon unlocking under the carbon trading policy. Conversely, social behavior has an inverse effect, and fixed assets are not affected by the policy. This study demonstrates the carbon unlocking effect of carbon emissions trading and provides a quantitative reference for implementing carbon emissions trading policies and determining carbon unlocking paths.

In order to avoid the real economy development lags behind and the deterioration of ecological problems in the process of traditional urbanization, China has been promoting city-industry deep integration, but the connection between city-industry integration and green economic growth, especially the spatial effect, has not been systematically explained. Based on the panel data from 2007 to 2018, this paper constructs an evaluation index system and uses the SEEA method to measure city-industry integration (CII) level and green economy growth (GEG) level. Then, by employing spatial Durbin model and intermediary effect model, it further systematically investigates the spatial impact of CII on GEG and the potential mechanism. The study found that: (1) On the whole, CII shows “slow-steady integration” trend, but regional heterogeneity was obvious and accompanied by “slow gap expansion”. GEG experienced “sharp increase” with “polarization” characteristic. (2) CII can directly promote regional GEG (with a marginal effect of 0.689), more effectively than traditional urbanization, and CII has obvious spatial spillover effects on GEG in both “local effect” and “neighboring effect”. (3) Interestingly, technological innovation and consumption structure upgrading are significant mediating mechanisms. (4) The direct positive effect of CII shows the regional imbalance characteristic. Finally, the corresponding policy implications are put forward.

This paper analyses a model of private value auctions with symmetric risk-neutral bidders, where bidders' private values of an indivisible good are fuzzy. The auction is studied as a game with incomplete information. Fuzzy random variables, their quantile functions, and expressions for expectations through quantile functions are used. An explicit expression for the solution is found. Also, expected bidders' payments are studied.

In the context of the continuous deepening reform of the foreign investment negative list system and the increasing pressure on financial risk prevention and resolution, it is of great significance to study the impact of the foreign investment negative list system on banking risks. This study is conducted on the basis of systematically sorting out the mechanism of the foreign negative list system affecting the risks of domestic banks. Based on the panel data of 27 provinces (cities, districts) in China from 2006 to 2016, and comprehensively adopting the synthetic control method, the difference-in-difference (DID) model, mediating effect model, and other methods, this article systematically examines the impact of the foreign negative list system on Shanghai banking risks. The study found that the implementation of the foreign investment negative list system has significantly reduced the credit risk of the Shanghai banking industry, and this reduction effect has gradually strengthened over time. Additionally, the implementation of the foreign investment negative list system will also significantly reduce the liquidity risk of the Shanghai banking industry; However, the effect of this positive influence is short-lived and subsequently weakens. The analysis of the mechanism of action indicates that the foreign investment negative list system primarily reduces the risk of Shanghai's banking industry by stimulating the inflow of foreign capital and reducing government intervention. However, the effect of improving the level of the rule of law to mitigate commercial bank risk is not apparent. Regarding other influencing factors, the growth of local government financial resources and the increase in new loans have significantly reduced banking risks, while the rise in residents' leverage has substantially increased the level of banking risks.