The recent interest rate policy decisions of the South African Reserve Bank have been criticized significantly by left-leaning political parties and civic society organisations for being anti-poor, anti-labour, and pro-capital because of their implications for household debt. Existing literature has established that interest rates and house prices are insignificant determinants of household debt dynamics in South Africa. Taking advantage of additional data for the period 2013-2022, and contrary to the previous studies, the paper maintains that house prices and the central bank policy rate play a crucial role in household debt dynamics. Applying a Markov Switching regression to quarterly data for the period 1981Q1 to 2022Q1, the paper finds that house prices and the policy rate have a significant influence on household debt dynamics. It establishes the existence of a ‘house price boom, low policy rate burden’ regime and a ‘high policy rate burden, low house price’ regime. The coexistence of the ‘house price boom’ and the ‘low policy rate’ explains the debt euphoria characterised by significant household leveraging.

The extensive, interdisciplinary nature of construction supply chains make them prone to inefficiencies at organisational interfaces. Inefficiencies are accentuated by the project-centric delivery paradigm, and complex logistics systems between multiple stakeholders. They manifest as a multitude of concurrent activities, processes, and systems both on and off-site. Transportation is the largest component of the logistics domain. Transport operations are inherently fragmented, intrinsic to every business, while vehicle ownership and deployment is typically externalised. Differentiated waste removal and materials delivery further disintegrate the already fragmented construction supply chain. Inefficiencies from the insularity of the planning process across segmental boundaries aggregate incrementally, with impacts visible at the macro level. Re-configuration of activities, resources and actors are acknowledged strategies for optimising logistics and transportation function. This paper investigates the impact of three integration strategies on a manufactured construction products supply chain efficiency. These strategies include vertical integration of distribution, integrated planning for transport operations, and integration of reverse logistics into operations. Sustainability impacts are evaluated according to domestically determined monetary parameters in order to benchmark performance at the business and national scale.

Digitalization is nowadays one of the fastest developing processes. The adoption of digital technologies can provide innumerous opportunities for the organizations to evolve and gain competitive advantage by leveraging of technologies to respond to dynamic expectations and demands. Information about the country digitalization level is essential to decision makers in both public and private organizations. It can present insights on which areas need the most investment, and furthermore to gain feedback on the outcomes of these investments. For companies, it can create a certain predictability on which products and services will be required the most. To assess the evolution of this process in different countries, various indexes were proposed and employed by different corporations. The Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) and ICT Development Index (IDI) are used by public organizations. Digitalization Index (DiGiX) and Cisco Digital Readiness Index (CISCO) are used by private companies. Comparing two sectors highlights the most common factors of digital evaluation. Indexes are analyzed thoroughly by their structure, coverage, weights, methodology and ranking. The result of the practical work is a equivalence table which shows the percentage of their similarity. Additionally, a new digitalization index is proposed, based on the result of the previous comparison, which can be applied to analyze both public and private sector of the country’s digitalization level.

Deposit dollarization in Turkey has been on the rise, reaching record levels in 2022. This was caused by the worsening macroeconomic fundamentals along with the transition to the presidential system in 2018 and the associated deviation from the monetary policy stance afterward. The unique case of Turkey presents an excellent natural experiment to explore the dynamics of deposit dollarization and how it is affected by the changes in the institutional structure as well as various social, economic, and financial shocks in a relatively short time. This study examines the time varying reactions of deposit dollarization for the period between 2013 and 2022 based on rolling window maximum entropy bootstrap estimates. Our findings reveal that all the model variables had significant and sometimes asymmetric effects on deposit dollarization during the different stages of this turbulent period. In particular, we observe diminishing effects of real exchange rate, policy credibility and consumer confidence over time. The findings provide ample new evidence regarding the dynamics of deposit dollarization in general, and how it is affected by loss of monetary policy credibility.

Despite the status of the United States as one of the world’s economic superpowers, the country is plagued by child poverty. The issue of child poverty is most prominent in rural, majority-minority communities, where years of limited opportunity, often created by systematic oppression, have created a vicious cycle of economic despair. There are a number of policies that have been explored which could limit the effects of child poverty, most notably the Expanded Child Tax Credit (ECTC), which was introduced as part of the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) of 2021. This paper uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to thoroughly examine this policy (ECTC) and its potential to both cut child poverty in the short term and increase educational attainment and economic mobility in the long term for recipients. The ECTC program ended in 2022 and only lasted in a short period. By examining the impacts of a similar and long-standing but less accessible and generous program, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), on educational attainment in specific communities we can theorize and determine the significance the Expanded CTC would have. We use EITC program as a proxy of ECTC and reach inference of the long-term impact of ECTC program on children’s education attainment. The result of this research indicates a number of benefits of the Expanded Child Tax Credit, including its potential to cut child poverty and increase educational attainment, its impact on future economic prosperity in rural, majority-minority communities, and the policy’s ability to decrease economic disparities between non-metro and metropolitan areas.

This paper presents an operational framework for assessing the trajectories of production, energy, emissions, and capital accumulation to ensure the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The framework combines widely used methodologies (STIRPAT, system dynamics, and optimization) to simulate the pathways of variables until a target year. The CO-STIRPAT dynamic system allows us to identify the spillover pathways from carbon policy to economic growth based on output optimization principles; to conduct a more systematic analysis of the interconnections between the main drivers that determine carbon emissions; to develop a cost-effective climate policy mix that is a backbone for the right combination of carbon pricing, energy efficiency, and carbon intensity; and to assess NDC targets with respect to ambition gaps, implementation gaps, and feasibility.

Understanding the economic trends and demographic dynamics of a country is crucial for policymakers and researchers to formulate effective strategies and policies. This study aims to examine the GDP trends and aging index dynamics in Portugal from 2011 to 2021, with a focus on regional disparities and their implications for demographic challenges. The findings highlight the relationship between regional GDP and the aging index, indicating that regions with higher GDP values tend to have a relatively younger population, while regions with lower GDP values have a relatively older population. The study contributes to the existing literature on population aging by providing insights into the demographic, economic, and social implications of an aging society. It provides valuable insights into the demographic, economic, and social implications of population aging in Portugal. The findings contribute to the existing literature and can inform policymakers and stakeholders in developing targeted strategies and policies to address the specific challenges faced by each region.

This paper attempts to introduce an overlapping generations structure into Paul Krugman's "The world's smallest macroeconomic model" (Krugman (1999)) to examine the implications of fiscal policy, particularly fiscal deficits, in a framework suitable for policy analysis. In that paper, Krugman argued that under the price rigidity assumption, a shortage in the money supply leads to underemployment and recession, so increasing the money supply would eliminate underemployment and restore full employment. But how can the money supply be increased? I show that in order to restore full employment out of a recession, a fiscal deficit is needed to increase the money supply. I also show that in a growing economy, fiscal deficits are necessary to maintain full employment at constant prices or inflation. Fiscal deficits are not only effective in pulling the economy out of recession, they are even necessary for growth to continue without recession or inflation. The fiscal deficit in this paper represents the difference between government spending and government revenues. If this difference is positive, we say that the government is in deficit. Krugman's original model is a one-period static model. I intend to extend this model to a dynamic overlapping generations model.

Traditionally, conditions of sustainability of the public debt have long been related quite exclusively to fiscal policy and to budgetary parameters. However, the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies regarding the fixation of the interest rate is fundamental. Indeed, a simple analytical modelling shows that if the nominal interest rate increases exponentially with the public debt, because of a default (credit) risk premium, if the confidence of investors is fundamental, conditions of sustainability of the public debt could be much more difficult to comply with. Indeed, if the interest rate is risk-free, values for which the public debt can be sustainable are less constraining if the long-term GDP growth rate is high, or if the long-term risk-free nominal interest rate is small. They are also less constraining if the country decides to turn to a non-negligible primary budget surplus in case of a high public debt. However, if the interest rate exponentially increases with the public debt level, in case of a significant importance of the default (credit) risk premium, these parameters have very limited consequences on sustainable and equilibrium public debt levels. The sustainable public debt that a government should target is then much smaller than in absence of this risk premium.

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) may, in the coming decades, result in tens of thousands of new jobs and billions of dollars in additional economic activity. While much of the discussion surrounding AAM focuses on the technical aspects of the nascent industry, estimates of the potential economic impact vary significantly. Much less attention has been paid in the literature to potential externalities, positive and negative, and how these externalities may impact estimates of economic impact. We argue that much work remains to be done before policy advisors and decisions makers can formulate and implement strategies based on the projections of future economic impact of AAM.

The high price of energy due to green energy policy will cause adjustments across the US economy predicted in the present general equilibrium model that includes energy Btu input with capital and labor to produce manufactures and services. This same model in trade theory examines the effects of a tariff on an imported factor of production such as a natural resource or capital.  Corresponding error correction estimates of the reduced form equations of the model in annual 1970-2018 data prove robust and suggest model modifications. A parametric approach to noncompetitive pricing based on unit cost diminishing with output brings the model much closer to the estimates. Manufactures are revealed to have a higher degree of noncompetitive pricing than services. Assuming constant elasticity of substitution production, a weak degree is revealed to provide the best fit to the error correction estimates. The high price of green energy will cause an inelastic decrease in energy input resulting in increased energy revenue. Outputs of both sectors fall, more in manufactures due to its energy intensity. The capital return and wage also fall given the weak substitution of capital and labor relative to the price of energy. The wage rises slightly in the model but falls considerably in the error correction estimate. The only clear winner is energy input with increased revenue. The government owns a large share of hydrocarbon reserves and will benefit from a higher price of energy.

The answer to how to stop economic growth must be political rather than economic. Economic growth made by men has an impetus which can only be stopped by a deliberate choice. It takes national and international decisions to stop it. In order to organize a moratorium on economic growth (which eventually must lead to a stop on growth) I suggest to create blocks of nations in the world. The European Union can function as a model for such a block. The E.U. is on its way of becoming a supra-national government which was created to ensure a level playing field for its members. Now it is meant to create economic growth for its members, in the future its administration should be used to stop it. Blocks should agree on the targets to reach a durable economy. Globally or between certain more advanced blocks a date should be set to stop economic growth after that date. Each block should implement the goals to reach a durable economy and prevent products reaching its market that violate the goals of durability. Blocks in developing countries cannot be expected to stop economic growth. They need that growth for two reasons. Eventually they must reach the level of existence in the more advanced block and secondly they must have the time to improve the standard for durability of their products. They need the aid of the developed countries to reach a higher but also more durable level of production, but this aid comes with a quid pro quo, In the meantime they must do their utmost to stop wars in their regions and conduct a responsible population-policy to reduce the growth of their population and let it reduce on the long term.