Bank deposit is closely related to systemic risks. In addition, considering that resident deposits in China have significant seasonal characteristics, this paper focuses on which component of deposits drives the systemic risk volatility, that is, it can supplement the existing forecast information. We use X-13ARIMA-SEATS to decompose deposit into three subsequences. The research findings show that the forecast effect of subsequence models is better than that of benchmark series. Most importantly, the model with trend component has the best forecast performance.

The high price of energy due to green energy policy will cause adjustments across the US economy predicted in the present general equilibrium model that includes energy Btu input with capital and labor to produce manufactures and services. This same model in trade theory examines the effects of a tariff on an imported factor of production such as a natural resource or capital.  Corresponding error correction estimates of the reduced form equations of the model in annual 1970-2018 data prove robust and suggest model modifications. A parametric approach to noncompetitive pricing based on unit cost diminishing with output brings the model much closer to the estimates. Manufactures are revealed to have a higher degree of noncompetitive pricing than services. Assuming constant elasticity of substitution production, a weak degree is revealed to provide the best fit to the error correction estimates. The high price of green energy will cause an inelastic decrease in energy input resulting in increased energy revenue. Outputs of both sectors fall, more in manufactures due to its energy intensity. The capital return and wage also fall given the weak substitution of capital and labor relative to the price of energy. The wage rises slightly in the model but falls considerably in the error correction estimate. The only clear winner is energy input with increased revenue. The government owns a large share of hydrocarbon reserves and will benefit from a higher price of energy.

The answer to how to stop economic growth must be political rather than economic. Economic growth made by men has an impetus which can only be stopped by a deliberate choice. It takes national and international decisions to stop it. In order to organize a moratorium on economic growth (which eventually must lead to a stop on growth) I suggest to create blocks of nations in the world. The European Union can function as a model for such a block. The E.U. is on its way of becoming a supra-national government which was created to ensure a level playing field for its members. Now it is meant to create economic growth for its members, in the future its administration should be used to stop it. Blocks should agree on the targets to reach a durable economy. Globally or between certain more advanced blocks a date should be set to stop economic growth after that date. Each block should implement the goals to reach a durable economy and prevent products reaching its market that violate the goals of durability. Blocks in developing countries cannot be expected to stop economic growth. They need that growth for two reasons. Eventually they must reach the level of existence in the more advanced block and secondly they must have the time to improve the standard for durability of their products. They need the aid of the developed countries to reach a higher but also more durable level of production, but this aid comes with a quid pro quo, In the meantime they must do their utmost to stop wars in their regions and conduct a responsible population-policy to reduce the growth of their population and let it reduce on the long term.

Banks are at the core of economic functioning in various countries and are the cause of their development in various fields. In a changing environment, they must deal with certain risks and maintain financial stability as the ultimate objective. The primary objective of this study is to examine the correlation between credit risk and bank stability within the Tunisian banking sector, with a specific focus on understanding the moderating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve this, we employ several econometric techniques, including panel unit root and cointegration tests, panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our empirical analysis relies on a panel dataset that encompasses a comprehensive sample of 8 Tunisian banks over 2000-2020. The results of our analysis unveil a significant negative relationship between credit risk and bank stability, indicating that higher levels of credit risk exert a detrimental effect on the overall stability of Tunisian banks. Furthermore, our study highlights that this adverse impact is further exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that the pandemic acts as a moderator. The findings of this study hold substantial implications for policymakers, regulators, and bank managers in Tunisia. They emphasize the critical importance of implementing robust risk management practices to mitigate credit risk and bolster bank stability. Additionally, the research underscores the need to consider the unique challenges introduced by external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, when assessing the overall stability of the banking system.

We offer an extensive analysis of the significance of information within the realm of Gaussian quadratic economies. We build upon the seminal papers of Morris and Shin (2002, 2007) and consider a signal game of incomplete information. Particularly, we question the suitability of partial transparency portrayed by fragmented information in addition to the private signal in terms of welfare effects. We can summarize our findings in two main points. First, fragmented information, in conjunction with a private signal, can reduce the reliance on public signals. Second, a conflicting effect arises between increasing full disclosure and increasing the precision of fragmented (semi-public) information when examining different complex scenarios, involving for example endogenous private information or imperfect correlated signals. For a critical threshold, an optimal communication strategy designed by fragmented information should be implemented whenever that kind of information is acquired at a high precision.

In this paper, we develop a model in which a monopolistic firm manufactures and sells a digital product, by incorporating digital rights management (DRM), quality degradation of pirated products, and government copyright enforcement into the consumer’s utility function. We determine the monopolist’s optimal pricing strategies and the appropriate DRM protection level through mathematical deduction. Our results show that when the government copyright enforcement is moderate and the quality of pirated products is relatively high, implementing a DRM system is optimal for the monopolist. However, in most other cases, DRM-free is better for the monopolist. This result may explain why DRM is not very popular in some industries. Our results suggest that choosing the right price, focusing on content innovation, and weakening DRM protection may be a better strategy for firms now. The results also indicate that DRM-free may be more prominent in the digital music industry than in the software and video games industries.

Based on China's 30 provincial panel data from 2006 to 2018, this paper uses the spatial Durbin model to empirically study the influence path and transmission mechanism of financial development on regional technological innovation, and introduce digital finance environment, marketization degree, and government environmental management as an adjustment variable to verify its regulating effect on financial development and regional technological innovation. The study found that the overall promotion of digital finance to local technological innovation is not significant. Besides, the characteristics of ownership discrimination and weak risk appetite in the bank's medium and long-term credit market have led to its failure to promote regional technological innovation. In contrast, the stock market and bond market in direct financing channels have enhanced local innovation capabilities. When the external environmental system is used as the adjustment variable, the results show that an excellent digital finance development, marketization degree, and government environmental management can effectively and positively regulate the effect of financial development and technological innovation.

Overall development of a country largely depends on the economic policy instruments particularly fiscal and monetary policy to streamline the development and continue the developmental progress. These two policies have significant effects on long-term growth. It is noticed that policy adoption and reforms in both fiscal and monetary policies undertaken by Southeast Asian nations during the 1960s through 1990s have contributed to their advancement. This paper discusses the strategies for flourishing as emerging economies. Examples from Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam are highlighted in this study. It is found that prudent fiscal and monetary policy, effective discounting and interest rate; modernized tax system and most importantly policy regime are the contributing factors of these emerging economies. However, in spite of high-income growth and development because of supportive these policy initiatives, administrative and politico-economic constraints challenged the path of economies. Long-term development strategies are suggested to sustain the growth and continue the development pace.

This paper aims to study and quantify the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth along with other variables in Tunisia. For that purpose, we estimate the relationship between GDP, agricultural exports, other exports, and imports by applying the ARDL approach under the period 1990-2020. The results show a negative and insignificant impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in the long and short run. Other exports negatively and significantly impact economic growth, while imports are found to have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. The findings have economic implications for sectors and activities that should be promoted to accelerate economic growth.

The development of digital economy is becoming an important path to promote the kinetic energy of China's tax revenue development. Based on the panel data from 2011 to 2018, this paper uses Gini coefficient to analyze the regional differences of China's digital economy, and uses fixed effect model, spatial Durbin model, multi-period double difference model and other empirical methods to examine the tax effects of digital economy development. The results show that the regional disparity is the main reason for the regional disparity of digital economy development in China. The development of digital economy directly increases the tax amount of local digital industry, and at the same time it also radiates and drives the increase of local total tax revenue; The tax effect of digital economy has a negative spatial spillover, showing a "siphon effect" to neighboring areas; Mechanism analysis shows that the development of digital economy mainly promotes the increase of local tax revenue through growth effect.

The recent interest rate policy decisions of the South African Reserve Bank have been criticized significantly by left-leaning political parties and civic society organisations for being anti-poor, anti-labour, and pro-capital because of their implications for household debt. Existing literature has established that interest rates and house prices are insignificant determinants of household debt dynamics in South Africa. Taking advantage of additional data for the period 2013-2022, and contrary to the previous studies, the paper maintains that house prices and the central bank policy rate play a crucial role in household debt dynamics. Applying a Markov Switching regression to quarterly data for the period 1981Q1 to 2022Q1, the paper finds that house prices and the policy rate have a significant influence on household debt dynamics. It establishes the existence of a ‘house price boom, low policy rate burden’ regime and a ‘high policy rate burden, low house price’ regime. The coexistence of the ‘house price boom’ and the ‘low policy rate’ explains the debt euphoria characterised by significant household leveraging.

China's carbon emission trading market has been formally established, but few studies have been conducted to analyze the impact of this policy on the regional urbanization level. Therefore, this paper evaluates whether the carbon trading pilot policy can enhance the regional urbanization level in China through the difference-in-differences method and analyzes the mediating role of industrial structure upgrading in this process. The results prove that the carbon trading market policy can accelerate the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in the region so that it promotes the development of regional urbanization. Moreover, the effects of the policy are concentratedly manifested in the eastern region of China.

In the context of digital economy, Hebei Province, as an important province in central China, has a huge manufacturing base and potential, and the development of digital economy has driven the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry to a certain extent. In order to better play the driving role of digital economy in the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, this paper establishes an intermediary effect model based on three intermediary variables: enterprise resource allocation ability, enterprise cost and enterprise innovation ability, and conducts an empirical study on the panel data of 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province from 2017 to 2022. The mechanism of digital economy driving manufacturing upgrading in Hebei Province was discussed. The results show that: (1) there is a significant positive correlation between the development of digital economy and the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, which indicates that the development of digital economy has a direct driving effect on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry; (2) There is also a positive correlation between the development of digital economy and the resource allocation ability and innovation ability of enterprises, indicating that the development of digital economy can improve the resource allocation ability and innovation ability of enterprises, and is conducive to the stable development of enterprises in the future; (3) Enterprise resource allocation ability and enterprise innovation ability play a significant intermediary role in the relationship between digital economy development and the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, indicating that digital economy can indirectly accelerate the transformation of manufacturing enterprises' R & D achievements by improving enterprises' resource allocation ability and innovation ability, thus improving enterprises' market competitiveness and increasing enterprises' earnings. Drive the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. Based on this research conclusion, the government should give full play to the role of guidance and support, and introduce relevant policies to help the digital economy drive the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing enterprises. Manufacturing enterprises should seize the tide of the development of the digital economy, use digital technology to improve their resource allocation ability and innovation ability, enhance core competitiveness, and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.

In the context of the continuous deepening reform of the foreign investment negative list system and the increasing pressure on financial risk prevention and resolution, it is of great significance to study the impact of the foreign investment negative list system on banking risks. This study is conducted on the basis of systematically sorting out the mechanism of the foreign negative list system affecting the risks of domestic banks. Based on the panel data of 27 provinces (cities, districts) in China from 2006 to 2016, and comprehensively adopting the synthetic control method, the difference-in-difference (DID) model, mediating effect model, and other methods, this article systematically examines the impact of the foreign negative list system on Shanghai banking risks. The study found that the implementation of the foreign investment negative list system has significantly reduced the credit risk of the Shanghai banking industry, and this reduction effect has gradually strengthened over time. Additionally, the implementation of the foreign investment negative list system will also significantly reduce the liquidity risk of the Shanghai banking industry; However, the effect of this positive influence is short-lived and subsequently weakens. The analysis of the mechanism of action indicates that the foreign investment negative list system primarily reduces the risk of Shanghai's banking industry by stimulating the inflow of foreign capital and reducing government intervention. However, the effect of improving the level of the rule of law to mitigate commercial bank risk is not apparent. Regarding other influencing factors, the growth of local government financial resources and the increase in new loans have significantly reduced banking risks, while the rise in residents' leverage has substantially increased the level of banking risks.

The study analyses the long growth rate period contribution to human development in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1996 to 2019 introducing time and institutional indicators effects analyses. Time and institutional effects both greatly improve model's diagnostics statistics. Time effects reduce growth variable coefficient and its significance, but not institutional effects. Combined effects inhibit growth contribution to human development. It appears essential to increase the resiliency of growth and the efficiency of government institutions.

Carbon emissions trading is essential for reducing carbon emissions, and its role in regional carbon unlocking needs further clarification. This study uses the difference-in-differences (DID) model and synthetic control model (SCM) to evaluate the carbon unlocking effect of China’s six pilot carbon trading provinces. This study found that (1) carbon lock-in effects in China are mainly influenced by technology lock-in and fixed input lock-in; (2) each province’s overall carbon lock-in level presents a decreasing trend yearly, and the regional distribution presents characteristics of “low in the east and high in the west”; (3) carbon emissions trading pilot policies effectively promote the carbon unlocking effect in pilot regions overall, with Guangdong having the most significant unlocking effect. Conversely, Beijing, Hubei, Chongqing, and Shanghai also had different degrees of carbon unlocking. Finally, (4) an assessment of impact mechanisms indicates that technology and institutions have a significant mediating role in effectively promoting carbon unlocking under the carbon trading policy. Conversely, social behavior has an inverse effect, and fixed assets are not affected by the policy. This study demonstrates the carbon unlocking effect of carbon emissions trading and provides a quantitative reference for implementing carbon emissions trading policies and determining carbon unlocking paths.

We generalize the 3-player game introduced by Mêgnigbêto (2018) to analyze the synergies existing between universities, the industry and the government in the Triple Helix, a model of research and innovation introduced by Leydesdorff and Etzkowitz (1995). We consider situations involving any number of actors and we allow for a differentiation of their contributions. The resulting game has nonnegative Harsanyi dividends, implying its convexity. The relative size of the core measures the extent of the synergies and the Shapley value measures the contribution of each actor to these synergies. Incidentally, the resulting game lends itself to a wide range of applications.

Based on provincial panel data from 1998-2018, this paper estimates research and development (R&D) factors, and a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model is constructed to examine the effects of R&D factors on regional total factor productivity (TFP). The results show that both R&D capital stock and R&D personnel can significantly promote regional TFP, but the productivity-enhancing effect of R&D factors is different between regions. Specifically, R&D capital and R&D personnel can promote TFP in eastern and central provinces, and the promotion effect is not significant in western provinces. In addition, compared with investment-driven regions, innovation-driven regions are more likely to enhance TFP by R&D factors.

Utilizing a 2021 nationally representative sample of 7,504 White-owned employer businesses (WOBs) in the United States of America (USA), the extent, and the determinants of WOB business registration are estimated. Business registration is employed as a proxy for business in/formality. Approximately one-fifth (22.5%) of all employer WOBs are unregistered or informal business concerns hidden from government purview. The primary determinants of employer WOB informality are business size (annual revenues under $500,000 and few paid employees), a business owner with less than a four-year college degree, and an upbringing in a lower- or middle-class environment, among other findings. Notably, this research reveals the white lie of the magnitude of White-owned employer business informality in the USA.

Deposit dollarization in Turkey has been on the rise, reaching record levels in 2022. This was caused by the worsening macroeconomic fundamentals along with the transition to the presidential system in 2018 and the associated deviation from the monetary policy stance afterward. The unique case of Turkey presents an excellent natural experiment to explore the dynamics of deposit dollarization and how it is affected by the changes in the institutional structure as well as various social, economic, and financial shocks in a relatively short time. This study examines the time varying reactions of deposit dollarization for the period between 2013 and 2022 based on rolling window maximum entropy bootstrap estimates. Our findings reveal that all the model variables had significant and sometimes asymmetric effects on deposit dollarization during the different stages of this turbulent period. In particular, we observe diminishing effects of real exchange rate, policy credibility and consumer confidence over time. The findings provide ample new evidence regarding the dynamics of deposit dollarization in general, and how it is affected by loss of monetary policy credibility.